IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jomega/v37y2009i2p463-470.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A statistical framework for strategic decision making with AHP: Probability assessment and Bayesian revision

Author

Listed:
  • Hughes, Warren R.

Abstract

A probability assessment framework is outlined for an organizational decision involving a conditioning event (CE). The decision may, for example, involve a new-product launch (strategic decision) dependent on the outcome of market research (CE). The framework illustrates how Bayesian revision could be employed as related "news" arrives intermittently to revise current probabilities prior to decision implementation. A unique contribution of this paper is its utilization of the analytic hierarchy process to ascertain a set of consistent and coherent probabilities for the event/sample spaces at all stages of the decision process.

Suggested Citation

  • Hughes, Warren R., 2009. "A statistical framework for strategic decision making with AHP: Probability assessment and Bayesian revision," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 463-470, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jomega:v:37:y:2009:i:2:p:463-470
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305-0483(07)00094-1
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hauser, David & Tadikamalla, Pandu, 1996. "The Analytic Hierarchy Process in an uncertain environment: A simulation approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 27-37, May.
    2. Jharkharia, Sanjay & Shankar, Ravi, 2007. "Selection of logistics service provider: An analytic network process (ANP) approach," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 274-289, June.
    3. Partovi, Fariborz Y., 2006. "An analytic model for locating facilities strategically," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 41-55, January.
    4. James E. Smith & Detlof von Winterfeldt, 2004. "Anniversary Article: Decision Analysis in Management Science," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(5), pages 561-574, May.
    5. Yoram Wind & Thomas L. Saaty, 1980. "Marketing Applications of the Analytic Hierarchy Process," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 26(7), pages 641-658, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. F De Carlo & O Borgia & M Tucci, 2011. "Risk-based inspections enhanced with Bayesian networks," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 225(3), pages 375-386, September.
    2. Ramanathan, Usha, 2013. "Aligning supply chain collaboration using Analytic Hierarchy Process," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 431-440.
    3. Peng, Yi & Kou, Gang & Wang, Guoxun & Shi, Yong, 2011. "FAMCDM: A fusion approach of MCDM methods to rank multiclass classification algorithms," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 677-689, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Aragonés-Beltrán, P. & Chaparro-González, F. & Pastor-Ferrando, J.P. & Rodríguez-Pozo, F., 2010. "An ANP-based approach for the selection of photovoltaic solar power plant investment projects," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 249-264, January.
    2. Cox, M.A.A., 2007. "Examining alternatives in the interval analytic hierarchy process using complete enumeration," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 180(2), pages 957-962, July.
    3. Ho, William, 2008. "Integrated analytic hierarchy process and its applications - A literature review," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 186(1), pages 211-228, April.
    4. Zhu, Bin & Xu, Zeshui, 2014. "Stochastic preference analysis in numerical preference relations," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 237(2), pages 628-633.
    5. Zhu, Bin & Xu, Zeshui & Zhang, Ren & Hong, Mei, 2016. "Hesitant analytic hierarchy process," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 250(2), pages 602-614.
    6. Viola Tanto, 2016. "The International Company and Tax Avoidance," European Journal of Economics and Business Studies Articles, Revistia Research and Publishing, vol. 2, May - Aug.
    7. B S Ahn & S H Choi, 2008. "ERP system selection using a simulation-based AHP approach: a case of Korean homeshopping company," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 59(3), pages 322-330, March.
    8. Simwanda, Matamyo & Murayama, Yuji & Ranagalage, Manjula, 2020. "Modeling the drivers of urban land use changes in Lusaka, Zambia using multi-criteria evaluation: An analytic network process approach," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    9. Zhu, Bin & Xu, Zeshui, 2014. "Analytic hierarchy process-hesitant group decision making," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 239(3), pages 794-801.
    10. Azadi, Majid & Farzipoor Saen, Reza, 2013. "A combination of QFD and imprecise DEA with enhanced Russell graph measure: A case study in healthcare," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 47(4), pages 281-291.
    11. Cortés-Aldana, Félix Antonio & García-Melón, Mónica & Fernández-de-Lucio, Ignacio & Aragonés-Beltrán, Pablo & Poveda-Bautista, Rocío, 2009. "University objectives and socioeconomic results: A multicriteria measuring of alignment," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 199(3), pages 811-822, December.
    12. Escobar, M. T. & Moreno-Jimenez, J. M., 2000. "Reciprocal distributions in the analytic hierarchy process," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 154-174, May.
    13. Theißen, Sebastian & Spinler, Stefan, 2014. "Strategic analysis of manufacturer-supplier partnerships: An ANP model for collaborative CO2 reduction management," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 233(2), pages 383-397.
    14. Begoña Gutiérrez-Nieto & Carlos Serrano-Cinca & Juan Camón-Cala, 2016. "A Credit Score System for Socially Responsible Lending," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 133(4), pages 691-701, February.
    15. Vaidya, Omkarprasad S. & Kumar, Sushil, 2006. "Analytic hierarchy process: An overview of applications," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 169(1), pages 1-29, February.
    16. Dinulescu Ruxandra & Dobrin Cosmin, 2022. "Applying the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process for classifying and prioritizing healthcare quality attributes," Management & Marketing, Sciendo, vol. 17(1), pages 15-40, March.
    17. Wen-Hsien Tsai & Pei-Ling Lee & Yu-Shan Shen & Elliott Hwang, 2014. "A combined evaluation model for encouraging entrepreneurship policies," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 221(1), pages 449-468, October.
    18. Kannan Govindan & Vernika Agarwal & Jyoti Dhingra Darbari & P. C. Jha, 2019. "An integrated decision making model for the selection of sustainable forward and reverse logistic providers," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 273(1), pages 607-650, February.
    19. Bana e Costa, Carlos A. & Vansnick, Jean-Claude, 2008. "A critical analysis of the eigenvalue method used to derive priorities in AHP," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 187(3), pages 1422-1428, June.
    20. Liu, Qizhi, 2022. "Identifying and correcting the defects of the Saaty analytic hierarchy/network process: A comparative study of the Saaty analytic hierarchy/network process and the Markov chain-based analytic network ," Operations Research Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 9(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jomega:v:37:y:2009:i:2:p:463-470. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/375/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.