IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jmacro/v74y2022ics0164070422000532.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Illiquid investments and the non-monotone relationship between credit and growth

Author

Listed:
  • Salas, Sergio
  • Odell, Kathleen

Abstract

Mounting evidence suggests a non-monotonic relationship between finance and growth: increases in credit over GDP lead to increases in growth at diminishing rates, and after a point growth decreases. We propose a theory based on liquidity risks that delivers this result. Our theory features a tension between the high return to capital and its illiquid nature. This tension is alleviated by the availability of credit. Initially, further access to credit offsets the detrimental effects of illiquid capital, facilitating investment and growth. Beyond some threshold however, expanded access to credit induces private bonds to compete with capital as a means of savings, which becomes detrimental to growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Salas, Sergio & Odell, Kathleen, 2022. "Illiquid investments and the non-monotone relationship between credit and growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:74:y:2022:i:c:s0164070422000532
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2022.103459
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0164070422000532
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jmacro.2022.103459?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Veronica Guerrieri & Guido Lorenzoni, 2017. "Credit Crises, Precautionary Savings, and the Liquidity Trap," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(3), pages 1427-1467.
    2. Peter L. Rousseau & Paul Wachtel, 2011. "What Is Happening To The Impact Of Financial Deepening On Economic Growth?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 49(1), pages 276-288, January.
    3. De Gregorio, Jose & Guidotti, Pablo E., 1995. "Financial development and economic growth," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 433-448, March.
    4. Bucci, Alberto & Marsiglio, Simone & Prettner, Catherine, 2020. "On The (Nonmonotonic) Relation Between Economic Growth And Finance," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(1), pages 93-112, January.
    5. Trew, Alex, 2008. "Efficiency, depth and growth: Quantitative implications of finance and growth theory," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1550-1568, December.
    6. Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000. "Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 24(Win), pages 14-23.
    7. Michał Jerzmanowski, 2017. "Finance and sources of growth: evidence from the U.S. states," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 97-122, March.
    8. Trew, Alex, 2014. "Finance And Balanced Growth," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(4), pages 883-898, June.
    9. Alberto Bucci & Simone Marsiglio, 2019. "Financial development and economic growth: long‐run equilibrium and transitional dynamics," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 66(3), pages 331-359, July.
    10. Paul A. Samuelson, 2011. "Lifetime Portfolio Selection by Dynamic Stochastic Programming," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & Edward O Thorp & William T Ziemba (ed.), THE KELLY CAPITAL GROWTH INVESTMENT CRITERION THEORY and PRACTICE, chapter 31, pages 465-472, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    11. Ashenfelter, Orley & Krueger, Alan B, 1994. "Estimates of the Economic Returns to Schooling from a New Sample of Twins," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1157-1173, December.
    12. Law, Siong Hook & Singh, Nirvikar, 2014. "Does too much finance harm economic growth?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 36-44.
    13. Levine, Ross, 2005. "Finance and Growth: Theory and Evidence," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 12, pages 865-934, Elsevier.
    14. Valerie R. Bencivenga & Bruce D. Smith, 1991. "Financial Intermediation and Endogenous Growth," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 195-209.
    15. Stephen Cecchetti & Enisse Kharroubi, 2012. "Reassessing the impact of finance on growth," BIS Working Papers 381, Bank for International Settlements.
    16. Rouse, Cecilia Elena, 1999. "Further estimates of the economic return to schooling from a new sample of twins," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 149-157, April.
    17. David N. DeJong & Chetan Dave, 2011. "Structural Macroeconometrics Second Edition," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9622.
    18. Levine, Ross, 1991. "Stock Markets, Growth, and Tax Policy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(4), pages 1445-1465, September.
    19. Huw Pill, 1997. "Real interest rates and growth: Improving on some deflating experiences," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1), pages 85-110.
    20. Bencivenga Valerie R. & Smith Bruce D. & Starr Ross M., 1995. "Transactions Costs, Technological Choice, and Endogenous Growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 153-177, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alberto Bucci & Simone Marsiglio, 2019. "Financial development and economic growth: long‐run equilibrium and transitional dynamics," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 66(3), pages 331-359, July.
    2. Chu, Lan Khanh & Chu, Hung Viet, 2020. "Is too much liquidity harmful to economic growth?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 230-242.
    3. Samargandi, Nahla & Fidrmuc, Jan & Ghosh, Sugata, 2015. "Is the Relationship Between Financial Development and Economic Growth Monotonic? Evidence from a Sample of Middle-Income Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 66-81.
    4. Alessandro Giovannini & Maurizio Iacopetta & Raoul Minetti, 2013. "Financial Markets, Banks, and Growth : Disentangling the links," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(5), pages 105-147.
    5. Stolbov, Mikhail, 2013. "The finance-growth nexus revisited: From origins to a modern theoretical landscape," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 7, pages 1-22.
    6. Guangdong Xu, 2022. "From financial structure to economic growth: Theory, evidence and challenges," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 51(1), February.
    7. Jean Arcand & Enrico Berkes & Ugo Panizza, 2015. "Too much finance?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 105-148, June.
    8. Pradhan, Rudra P. & Arvin, Mak B. & Bahmani, Sahar & Hall, John H. & Norman, Neville R., 2017. "Finance and growth: Evidence from the ARF countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 136-148.
    9. Rudra P. Pradhan & Mak B. Arvin & John H. Hall & Sahar Bahmani, 2014. "Causal nexus between economic growth, banking sector development, stock market development, and other macroeconomic variables: The case of ASEAN countries," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(4), pages 155-173, November.
    10. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/6o65lgig8d0qcro9p14jk1001 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Bucci, Alberto & La Torre, Davide & Liuzzi, Danilo & Marsiglio, Simone, 2019. "Financial contagion and economic development: An epidemiological approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 211-228.
    12. Clement Olalekan Olaniyi, 2022. "On the transmission mechanisms in the finance–growth nexus in Southern African countries: Does institution matter?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 153-191, February.
    13. Jeremy Greenwood & Juan M. Sanchez & Cheng Wang, 2010. "Financing Development: The Role of Information Costs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(4), pages 1875-1891, September.
    14. James B. Ang, 2008. "A Survey Of Recent Developments In The Literature Of Finance And Growth," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 536-576, July.
    15. Bofinger, Peter & Geißendörfer, Lisa & Haas, Thomas & Mayer, Fabian, 2021. "Discovering the True Schumpeter - New Insights into the Finance and Growth Nexus," CEPR Discussion Papers 16851, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Levine, Ross & Zervos, Sara, 1998. "Stock Markets, Banks, and Economic Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 537-558, June.
    17. Su-Yin Cheng & Han Hou, 2022. "Innovation, financial development, and growth: evidences from industrial and emerging countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1629-1653, August.
    18. Giorgio Fagiolo & Daniele Giachini & Andrea Roventini, 2020. "Innovation, finance, and economic growth: an agent-based approach," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 15(3), pages 703-736, July.
    19. Emmanuel Carré & Guillaume L’œillet, 2018. "The Literature on the Finance–Growth Nexus in the Aftermath of the Financial Crisis: A Review," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 60(1), pages 161-180, March.
    20. Boris Cournède & Oliver Denk & Peter Hoeller, 2015. "Finance and Inclusive Growth," OECD Economic Policy Papers 14, OECD Publishing.
    21. Ugo Panizza, 2018. "Nonlinearities in the Relationship Between Finance and Growth," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 60(1), pages 44-53, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Endogenous growth; Finance; Heterogeneous agents;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:74:y:2022:i:c:s0164070422000532. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622617 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.