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State-dependent effects of fiscal policy in Japan: Do rule-of-thumb households increase the effects of fiscal policy?

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  • Morita, Hiroshi

Abstract

This study empirically investigates whether macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy are affected by the existence of rule-of-thumb households in Japan. Motivated by existing theoretical formulations, we estimate a consumption function as extended to a Markov switching model and divide the sample period into two parts depending on the share of rule-of-thumb (ROT) households. Subsequently, we estimate a Vector Autoregression (VAR) model to investigate the effects of two types of fiscal policy shock: unanticipated and anticipated. The results are subjected to robustness checks and reveal that the share of ROT households rises after large negative shocks (i.e., oil shock, economic bubble burst, Lehman shock), and then (unanticipated) fiscal policy shock stimulates private consumption more effectively in the high ROT households’ period.

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  • Morita, Hiroshi, 2015. "State-dependent effects of fiscal policy in Japan: Do rule-of-thumb households increase the effects of fiscal policy?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 49-61.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:43:y:2015:i:c:p:49-61
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2014.09.002
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    Cited by:

    1. Piotr Krajewski & Agata Szymanska, 2019. "The effectiveness of fiscal policy within business cycle-Ricardians vs. non-Ricardians approach," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 19(2), pages 195-215.
    2. Hiroshi Morita, 2017. "Effects of Anticipated Fiscal Policy Shock on Macroeconomic Dynamics in Japan," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 68(3), pages 364-393, September.
    3. Tomomi Miyazaki, 2016. "Fiscal stimulus effectiveness in Japan: evidence from recent policies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(27), pages 2506-2515, June.
    4. Tomomi Miyazaki & Haruo Kondoh, 2022. "Effects of Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions on Regional Employment: Evidence from Japan," Discussion Papers 2206, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
    5. Steven M. Fazzari & James Morley & Irina B. Panovska, 2017. "When Do Discretionary Changes in Government Spending or Taxes Have Larger Effects?," Discussion Papers 2017-04, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    6. Hiroshi Morita & Hidekazu Niwa, 2021. "An Effect of Population Aging on the Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy: Analysis using a panel VAR model," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 17(3), pages 1-20, November.
    7. Piotr Krajewski, 2017. "Heterogeneity of Households and the Effects of Fiscal Policy in the CEE Countries," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 79-93, June.
    8. Takero Doi, 2018. "Is Abe's Fiscal Policy Ricardian? What Does the Fiscal Theory of Prices Mean for Japan?," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 13(1), pages 46-63, January.
    9. Hiroshi Morita, 2017. "Effects of Anticipated Fiscal Policy Shock on Macroeconomic Dynamics in Japan," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 68(3), pages 364-393, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal policy; State-dependence; Rule-of-thumb household; Markov-switching;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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