IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jimfin/v137y2023ics0261560623000827.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How quantitative easing changes the nature of sovereign risk

Author

Listed:
  • Broeders, Dirk
  • de Haan, Leo
  • Willem van den End, Jan

Abstract

We model the market stabilization function of quantitative easing (QE) programs as a put option written by the central bank to bond holders. This implicit put option protects bond holders against tail risks, in particular sovereign credit risk. The contingent claims model (CCM) that we use to value the implicit put option has not been applied to QE in the literature before. Based on this model, we examine the effect of the European Central Bank’s bond purchases by QE on the sovereign credit risk of eight countries of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). Model simulations show that in times of market stress investors attached a high value to the implicit put option on sovereign bonds. This indicates that QE lowers investors’ perception of sovereign default risk. Understanding this effect of QE is important for addressing tail risks in the euro area via a backstop facility.

Suggested Citation

  • Broeders, Dirk & de Haan, Leo & Willem van den End, Jan, 2023. "How quantitative easing changes the nature of sovereign risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:137:y:2023:i:c:s0261560623000827
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2023.102881
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261560623000827
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2023.102881?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Altavilla, Carlo & Brugnolini, Luca & Gürkaynak, Refet S. & Motto, Roberto & Ragusa, Giuseppe, 2019. "Measuring euro area monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 162-179.
    2. John H. Cochrane & Jesus Saa-Requejo, 2000. "Beyond Arbitrage: Good-Deal Asset Price Bounds in Incomplete Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(1), pages 79-119, February.
    3. James Costain & Galo Nuño & Carlos Thomas, 2022. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates in a Heterogeneous Monetary Union," CESifo Working Paper Series 9844, CESifo.
    4. Jan Willem van den End & Mostafa Tabbae, 2005. "Measuring Financial Stability: Applying the MfRisk Model to the Netherlands," DNB Working Papers 030, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    5. Leland, Hayne E, 1994. "Corporate Debt Value, Bond Covenants, and Optimal Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1213-1252, September.
    6. Robert C. Merton, 2005. "Theory of rational option pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sudipto Bhattacharya & George M Constantinides (ed.), Theory Of Valuation, chapter 8, pages 229-288, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. De Grauwe, Paul & Ji, Yuemei, 2013. "Self-fulfilling crises in the Eurozone: An empirical test," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 15-36.
    8. Bailey, Andrew & Bridges, Jonathan & Harrison, Richard & Jones, Josh & Mankodi, Aakash, 2020. "The central bank balance sheet as a policy tool: past, present and future," Bank of England working papers 899, Bank of England.
    9. W. Heynderickx & J. Cariboni & W. Schoutens & B. Smits, 2016. "The relationship between risk-neutral and actual default probabilities: the credit risk premium," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(42), pages 4066-4081, September.
    10. Viral V Acharya & Tim Eisert & Christian Eufinger & Christian Hirsch, 2019. "Whatever It Takes: The Real Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(9), pages 3366-3411.
    11. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Stefan Nagel & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2018. "ECB Policies Involving Government Bond Purchases: Impact and Channels [The “greatest” carry trade ever? Understanding eurozone bank risks]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 22(1), pages 1-44.
    12. Masazumi Hattori & Andreas Schrimpf & Vladyslav Sushko, 2016. "The Response of Tail Risk Perceptions to Unconventional Monetary Policy," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(2), pages 111-136, April.
    13. Sven Steinkamp & Frank Westermann, 2014. "The role of creditor seniority in Europe's sovereign debt crisis [What is the risk of European sovereign debt defaults? Fiscal space, CDS spreads and market pricing of risk]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 29(79), pages 495-552.
    14. Sofiane Aboura & Sébastien Valeyre & Niklas Wagner, 2014. "Option pricing with a dynamic fat-tailed model," Post-Print hal-01531191, HAL.
    15. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    16. Anna Cieslak & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2021. "The Economics of the Fed Put," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(9), pages 4045-4089.
    17. repec:oup:ecpoli:v:29:y:2014:i:79:p:495-552 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. George Hondroyiannis & Dimitrios Papaoikonomou, 2022. "The effect of Eurosystem asset purchase programmes on euro area sovereign bond yields during the COVID-19 pandemic," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(6), pages 2997-3026, December.
    19. Patro, Dilip K. & Qi, Min & Sun, Xian, 2013. "A simple indicator of systemic risk," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 105-116.
    20. Eric Ghysels & Julien Idier & Simone Manganelli & Olivier Vergote, 2017. "A High-Frequency assessment of the ECB Securities Markets Programme," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 15(1), pages 218-243.
    21. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, May.
    22. Schlepper, Kathi & Riordan, Ryan & Hofer, Heiko & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2017. "Scarcity effects of QE: A transaction-level analysis in the Bund market," Discussion Papers 06/2017, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    23. Carlo Altavilla & Giacomo Carboni & Roberto Motto, 2021. "Asset Purchase Programs and Financial Markets: Lessons from the Euro Area," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(70), pages 1-48, October.
    24. Yvo Mudde & Anna Samarina & Robert Vermeulen, 2024. "Spillover Effects of Sovereign Bond Purchases in the Euro Area," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 20(2), pages 343-389, April.
    25. Paniagua, Jordi & Sapena, Juan & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2017. "Sovereign debt spreads in EMU: The time-varying role of fundamentals and market distrust," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 187-206.
    26. D. Gareth Thomas & David S. Bywaters, 2021. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates," Springer Books, in: The Creators of Inside Money, edition 2, chapter 0, pages 87-100, Springer.
    27. Brière, Marie & Ferrarini, Benno & Ramayandi, Arief, 2016. "Contingent Claims Analysis of Sovereign Debt Sustainability in Asian Emerging Markets," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 486, Asian Development Bank.
    28. Ibragimov, Rustam & Jaffee, Dwight & Walden, Johan, 2011. "Diversification disasters," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 333-348, February.
    29. Niels Gilbert, 2019. "Euro area sovereign risk spillovers before and after the ECB's OMT announcement," DNB Working Papers 636, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    30. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    31. Somnath Chatterjee, 2015. "Modelling credit risk," Handbooks, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England, number 34, April.
    32. Jeanneret, Alexandre, 2015. "The Dynamics of Sovereign Credit Risk," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(5), pages 963-985, October.
    33. repec:dau:papers:123456789/14003 is not listed on IDEAS
    34. Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Manish K. Singh, 2018. "“Incorporating creditors' seniority into contingent claim models:Application to peripheral euro area countries”," IREA Working Papers 201803, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Feb 2018.
    35. Stephanie Titzck & Jan Willem van den End, 2021. "The impact of size, composition and duration of the central bank balance sheet on inflation expectations and market prices," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(12), pages 1186-1209, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Andrejs Zlobins, 2023. "Is There a Portfolio Rebalancing Channel of QE in Latvia?," Working Papers 2023/05, Latvijas Banka.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Motto, Roberto & Özen, Kadir, 2022. "Market-stabilization QE," Working Paper Series 2640, European Central Bank.
    2. Rostagno, Massimo & Altavilla, Carlo & Carboni, Giacomo & Lemke, Wolfgang & Motto, Roberto & Saint Guilhem, Arthur & Yiangou, Jonathan, 2019. "A tale of two decades: the ECB’s monetary policy at 20," Working Paper Series 2346, European Central Bank.
    3. Singh, Manish K. & Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2021. "Quantifying sovereign risk in the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 76-96.
    4. Christophe Blot & Paul Hubert & Jérôme Creel & Caroline Bozou, 2023. "The conditionality of monetary policy instruments," Working Papers hal-04159848, HAL.
    5. Zhijian (James) Huang & Yuchen Luo, 2016. "Revisiting Structural Modeling of Credit Risk—Evidence from the Credit Default Swap (CDS) Market," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-20, May.
    6. Giesecke, Kay & Longstaff, Francis A. & Schaefer, Stephen & Strebulaev, Ilya, 2011. "Corporate bond default risk: A 150-year perspective," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 233-250.
    7. Hui Chen & Jianjun Miao & Neng Wang, 2010. "Entrepreneurial Finance and Nondiversifiable Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(12), pages 4348-4388, December.
    8. Duffie, Darrell, 2003. "Intertemporal asset pricing theory," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 11, pages 639-742, Elsevier.
    9. Episcopos, Athanasios, 2008. "Bank capital regulation in a barrier option framework," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 1677-1686, August.
    10. Marco Realdon, "undated". "About Debt and the Option to Extend Debt Maturity," Discussion Papers 03/20, Department of Economics, University of York.
    11. Gatzert, Nadine & Martin, Michael, 2012. "Quantifying credit and market risk under Solvency II: Standard approach versus internal model," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 649-666.
    12. Christophe Blot & Caroline Bozou & Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert, 2022. "The Conditional Path of Central Bank Asset Purchases," Working papers 885, Banque de France.
    13. Jung, Alexander & Uhlig, Harald, 2019. "Monetary policy shocks and the health of banks," Working Paper Series 2303, European Central Bank.
    14. Zhou Lu & Zhuyao Zhuo, 2021. "Modelling of Chinese corporate bond default – A machine learning approach," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(5), pages 6147-6191, December.
    15. Atkeson, Andrew G. & Eisfeldt, Andrea L. & Weill, Pierre-Olivier, 2017. "Measuring the financial soundness of U.S. firms, 1926–2012," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 613-635.
    16. Emiliano Delfau, 2018. "Risk Framework Analysis in the Management of Sovereign Debt: The Argentine case," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 634, Universidad del CEMA.
    17. Bolton, Patrick & Wang, Neng & Yang, Jinqiang, 2019. "Investment under uncertainty with financial constraints," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    18. Jan Ericsson & Joel Reneby, 1998. "A framework for valuing corporate securities," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(3-4), pages 143-163.
    19. Bhanu Pratap Singh Thakur & M. Kannadhasan & Vinay Goyal, 2018. "Determinants of corporate credit spread: evidence from India," DECISION: Official Journal of the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, Springer;Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, vol. 45(1), pages 59-73, March.
    20. Perrakis, Stylianos & Zhong, Rui, 2015. "Credit spreads and state-dependent volatility: Theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 215-231.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Quantitative Easing; Sovereign risk; Sovereign spreads; Contingent Claims Model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:137:y:2023:i:c:s0261560623000827. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.