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Reversals of signal-posterior monotonicity imply a bias of screening

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  • Heinsalu, Sander

Abstract

The main result of Lagziel and Lehrer (2019) (LL) “A bias in screening” is generalized, and also derived using Chambers and Healy (2011) (CH) “Reversals of signal-posterior monotonicity for any bounded prior”. LL show that the conditional expectation of an unobserved variable of interest, given that a noisy signal of it exceeds a cutoff, may decrease in the cutoff. CH prove that the distribution of a variable given a lower signal may first order stochastically dominate the distribution given a higher signal.

Suggested Citation

  • Heinsalu, Sander, 2020. "Reversals of signal-posterior monotonicity imply a bias of screening," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jetheo:v:188:y:2020:i:c:s0022053120300697
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2020.105073
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    1. Annette Alstadsæter & Niels Johannesen & Gabriel Zucman, 2019. "Tax Evasion and Inequality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(6), pages 2073-2103, June.
    2. Niels Johannesen & Patrick Langetieg & Daniel Reck & Max Risch & Joel Slemrod, 2020. "Taxing Hidden Wealth: The Consequences of US Enforcement Initiatives on Evasive Foreign Accounts," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 12(3), pages 312-346, August.
    3. David Lagziel & Ehud Lehrer, 2019. "A Bias of Screening," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 1(3), pages 343-356, December.
    4. Andreas Fagereng & Martin Blomhoff Holm & Benjamin Moll & Gisle Natvik, 2019. "Saving Behavior Across the Wealth Distribution: The Importance of Capital Gains," NBER Working Papers 26588, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Nikolaos Artavanis & Adair Morse & Margarita Tsoutsoura, 2016. "Measuring Income Tax Evasion Using Bank Credit: Evidence from Greece," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(2), pages 739-798.
    6. Chambers, Christopher P. & Healy, Paul J., 2011. "Reversals of signal-posterior monotonicity for any bounded prior," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 61(3), pages 178-180, May.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Filtering; Bayes' rule; Updating; Posterior beliefs; Stochastic dominance; Screening;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C60 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - General
    • D01 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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