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A framework for variance analysis of customer equity based on a Markov chain model

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  • Matsuoka, Kohsuke

Abstract

This study proposes a framework for variance analysis of customer equity (CE) based on a Markov chain model called the Leslie matrix, developed in mathematical biology. Because customer lifetime value represents the net present value of customer derived cashflow, CE can be characterized as a forward-looking measure. Numerous studies have addressed the use of CE for planning. However, few studies have utilized CE for control. When CE is used as a basis for control, variance analysis is indispensable. In the proposed framework, CE variance is divided into three parts: customer payoff variance, customer lifecycle variance, and customer state variance. Thereafter, customer lifecycle variance is further broken down into customer acquisition, retention, and expansion. The aforementioned framework was applied to membership customers of a Japanese resort hotel chain. The results revealed that customer retention was a major cause of CE variance, whereas customer acquisition and expansion had a smaller impact.

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  • Matsuoka, Kohsuke, 2021. "A framework for variance analysis of customer equity based on a Markov chain model," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 57-69.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbrese:v:129:y:2021:i:c:p:57-69
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbusres.2021.02.039
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    1. Matsuoka, Kohsuke, 2022. "Effects of revenue management on perceived value, customer satisfaction, and customer loyalty," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 131-148.

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