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Liquidity provision and stock return predictability

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  • Hendershott, Terrence
  • Seasholes, Mark S.

Abstract

This paper examines the trading behavior of two groups of liquidity providers (specialists and competing market makers) using a six-year panel of NYSE data. Trades of each group are negatively correlated with contemporaneous price changes. To test for return predictability, we sort stocks into quintiles based on each group’s past trades and then form long-short portfolios. Stocks most heavily bought have significantly higher returns than stocks most heavily sold over the two weeks following a sort. Cross-sectional analysis shows smaller, more volatile, less actively traded, and less liquid stocks more often appear in the extreme quintiles. Time series analysis shows the long-short portfolio returns are positively correlated with a market-wide measure of liquidity. A double sort using past trades of specialists and competing market makers produces a long-short portfolio that earns 88 basis points per week (act as complements). Finally, we identify a “chain” of liquidity provision. Designated market makers (NYSE specialists) initially trade against order flows and prices changes. Specialists later mean revert their inventories by trading with competing market makers who appear to spread trades over a number of days. Alternatively, specialists may trade with competing market makers who arrive to market with delay.

Suggested Citation

  • Hendershott, Terrence & Seasholes, Mark S., 2014. "Liquidity provision and stock return predictability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 140-151.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:45:y:2014:i:c:p:140-151
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2013.12.021
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Hadhri, Sinda & Ftiti, Zied, 2017. "Stock return predictability in emerging markets: Does the choice of predictors and models matter across countries?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 39-60.
    2. Wang, Xinjie & Zhong, Zhaodong (Ken), 2022. "Dealer inventory, pricing, and liquidity in the OTC derivatives markets: Evidence from index CDSs," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    3. Rahman, Md. Lutfur & Lee, Doowon & Shamsuddin, Abul, 2017. "Time-varying return predictability in South Asian equity markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 179-200.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Liquidity; Market makers; Market efficiency; Inventory; Liquidity provision;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets

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