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Hedge fund pricing and model uncertainty

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Author Info

  • Vrontos, Spyridon D.
  • Vrontos, Ioannis D.
  • Giamouridis, Daniel

Abstract

This article uses Bayesian model averaging to study model uncertainty in hedge fund pricing. We show how to incorporate heteroscedasticity, thus, we develop a framework that jointly accounts for model uncertainty and heteroscedasticity. Relevant risk factors are identified and compared with those selected through standard model selection techniques. The analysis reveals that a model selection strategy that accounts for model uncertainty in hedge fund pricing regressions can be superior in estimation/inference. We explore potential impacts of our approach by analysing individual funds and show that they can be economically important.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6VCY-4PKFH43-1/1/a98792facfb1eb0a993d6c14176b78ab
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

Volume (Year): 32 (2008)
Issue (Month): 5 (May)
Pages: 741-753

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:32:y:2008:i:5:p:741-753

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf

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References

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  1. Fung, William & Hsieh, David A, 2001. "The Risk in Hedge Fund Strategies: Theory and Evidence from Trend Followers," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(2), pages 313-41.
  2. Fiorentini, Gabriele & Calzolari, Giorgio & Panattoni, Lorenzo, 1996. "Analytic Derivatives and the Computation of GARCH Estimates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(4), pages 399-417, July-Aug..
  3. K. J. Martijn Cremers, 2002. "Stock Return Predictability: A Bayesian Model Selection Perspective," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1223-1249.
  4. Carl Ackermann & Richard McEnally & David Ravenscraft, 1999. "The Performance of Hedge Funds: Risk, Return, and Incentives," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(3), pages 833-874, 06.
  5. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
  6. Chen, Yong & Liang, Bing, 2007. "Do Market Timing Hedge Funds Time the Market?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(04), pages 827-856, December.
  7. Vikas Agarwal, 2004. "Risks and Portfolio Decisions Involving Hedge Funds," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(1), pages 63-98.
  8. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
  9. Avramov, Doron, 2002. "Stock return predictability and model uncertainty," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 423-458, June.
  10. Kosowski, Robert & Naik, Narayan Y. & Teo, Melvyn, 2007. "Do hedge funds deliver alpha? A Bayesian and bootstrap analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 229-264, April.
  11. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. " On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
  12. Bossaerts, Peter & Hillion, Pierre, 1999. "Implementing Statistical Criteria to Select Return Forecasting Models: What Do We Learn?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(2), pages 405-28.
  13. Giamouridis, Daniel & Vrontos, Ioannis D., 2007. "Hedge fund portfolio construction: A comparison of static and dynamic approaches," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 199-217, January.
  14. Fung, William & Hsieh, David A, 1997. "Empirical Characteristics of Dynamic Trading Strategies: The Case of Hedge Funds," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(2), pages 275-302.
  15. Fung, William & Hsieh, David A., 2000. "Performance Characteristics of Hedge Funds and Commodity Funds: Natural vs. Spurious Biases," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(03), pages 291-307, September.
  16. P. Dellaportas & I. D. Vrontos, 2007. "Modelling volatility asymmetries: a Bayesian analysis of a class of tree structured multivariate GARCH models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 10(3), pages 503-520, November.
  17. Lawrence R. Glosten & Ravi Jagannathan, 1993. "A contingent claim approach to performance evaluation," Staff Report 159, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  18. Ross, Stephen A., 1976. "The arbitrage theory of capital asset pricing," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 341-360, December.
  19. Carol Alexander & Anca Dimitriu, 2004. "The Art of Investing in Hedge Funds: Fund Selection and Optimal Allocations," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2004-01, Henley Business School, Reading University.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Wolfgang Bessler & Julian Holler & Philipp Kurmann, 2012. "Hedge funds and optimal asset allocation: Bayesian expectations and spanning tests," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 109-141, March.
  2. Meligkotsidou, Loukia & Vrontos, Ioannis D., 2008. "Detecting structural breaks and identifying risk factors in hedge fund returns: A Bayesian approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(11), pages 2471-2481, November.
  3. Darolles, Serge & Vaissié, Mathieu, 2012. "The alpha and omega of fund of hedge fund added value," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1067-1078.
  4. Giannikis, Dimitrios & Vrontos, Ioannis D., 2011. "A Bayesian approach to detecting nonlinear risk exposures in hedge fund strategies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 1399-1414, June.
  5. Meligkotsidou, Loukia & Vrontos, Ioannis D. & Vrontos, Spyridon D., 2009. "Quantile regression analysis of hedge fund strategies," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 264-279, March.
  6. Wegener, Christian & von Nitzsch, Rüdiger & Cengiz, Cetin, 2010. "An advanced perspective on the predictability in hedge fund returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2694-2708, November.
  7. Gradojevic, Nikola & Gençay, Ramazan, 2013. "Fuzzy logic, trading uncertainty and technical trading," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 578-586.
  8. Pflug, Georg Ch. & Pichler, Alois & Wozabal, David, 2012. "The 1/N investment strategy is optimal under high model ambiguity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 410-417.
  9. Eling, Martin & Faust, Roger, 2010. "The performance of hedge funds and mutual funds in emerging markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1993-2009, August.

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