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Time-consistency in managing a commodity portfolio: A dynamic risk measure approach

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  • Geman, Hélyette
  • Ohana, Steve
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    Abstract

    We address the problem of managing a storable commodity portfolio, that includes physical assets and positions in spot and forward markets. The vast amount of capital involved in the acquisition of a power plant or storage facility implies that the financing period stretches over a period of several quarters or years. Hence, an intertemporally consistent way of optimizing the portfolio over the planning horizon is required. We demonstrate the temporal inconsistency of static risk objectives based on final wealth and advocate the validity in our setting of a new class of recursive risk measures introduced by Epstein and Zin [Epstein, G., Zin, S., 1989. Substitution, risk aversion, and the temporal behavior of consumption and asset returns: A theoretical framework. Econometrica, 57 (4) 937-969] and Wang [Wang, T., 2000. A class of dynamic risk measures University of British Columbia]. These risk measures provide important insights on the trade-offs between date-specific risks (i.e., losses occurring at a point in time) and time-duration risks represented by the pair (return, risk) over a planning horizon; in a number of situations, they dramatically improve the efficiency of static risk objectives, as exhibited in numerical examples.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

    Volume (Year): 32 (2008)
    Issue (Month): 10 (October)
    Pages: 1991-2005

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:32:y:2008:i:10:p:1991-2005

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf

    Related research

    Keywords: Commodity portfolio Dynamic risk measures Time-consistency Temporal elasticity of substitution;

    References

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    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    1. Weber, Stefan, 2003. "Distribution-Invariant Dynamic Risk Measures," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2003,53, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    2. James E. Smith, 1998. "Evaluating Income Streams: A Decision Analysis Approach," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(12-Part-1), pages 1690-1708, December.
    3. Philippe Artzner & Freddy Delbaen & Jean-Marc Eber & David Heath, 1999. "Coherent Measures of Risk," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 203-228.
    4. Epstein, Larry G & Zin, Stanley E, 1989. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: A Theoretical Framework," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 937-69, July.
    5. Frittelli, Marco & Rosazza Gianin, Emanuela, 2002. "Putting order in risk measures," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1473-1486, July.
    6. Riedel, Frank, 2004. "Dynamic coherent risk measures," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 185-200, August.
    7. Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1997. " The Stochastic Behavior of Commodity Prices: Implications for Valuation and Hedging," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 923-73, July.
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    Cited by:
    1. Liu, Peng (Peter) & Tang, Ke, 2010. "No-arbitrage conditions for storable commodities and the modeling of futures term structures," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 1675-1687, July.
    2. Paul Kleindorfer & Lide Li, 2011. "Portfolio risk management and carbon emissions valuation in electric power," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 219-236, December.

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