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Overcoming selectivity bias in evaluating new fraud detection systems for revolving credit operations

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  • Hand, David J.
  • Crowder, Martin J.

Abstract

When proposed new fraud detection systems are tested in revolving credit operations, a straightforward comparison of the observed fraud detection rates is subject to a selectivity bias that tends to favour the existing system. This bias arises from the fact that accounts are terminated when the existing system, but not the proposed new system, detects a fraudulent transaction. This therefore flatters the estimated detection rate of the existing system. We develop more formal estimators that can be used to compare the existing and proposed new systems without risking this effect. We also assess the magnitude of the bias.

Suggested Citation

  • Hand, David J. & Crowder, Martin J., 2012. "Overcoming selectivity bias in evaluating new fraud detection systems for revolving credit operations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 216-223.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:28:y:2012:i:1:p:216-223
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2010.10.005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. J Banasik & J Crook & L Thomas, 2003. "Sample selection bias in credit scoring models," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 54(8), pages 822-832, August.
    2. G Verstraeten & D Van den Poel, 2005. "The impact of sample bias on consumer credit scoring performance and profitability," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 56(8), pages 981-992, August.
    3. Heckman, James, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
    4. Juszczak, Piotr & Adams, Niall M. & Hand, David J. & Whitrow, Christopher & Weston, David J., 2008. "Off-the-peg and bespoke classifiers for fraud detection," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(9), pages 4521-4532, May.
    5. D J Hand & C Whitrow & N M Adams & P Juszczak & D Weston, 2008. "Performance criteria for plastic card fraud detection tools," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 59(7), pages 956-962, July.
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