IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/insuma/v83y2018icp1-8.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Bayesian nonparametric regression models for modeling and predicting healthcare claims

Author

Listed:
  • Richardson, Robert
  • Hartman, Brian

Abstract

Standard regression models are often insufficient to describe the complex relationships that exist in healthcare claims. A Bayesian nonparametric regression approach is presented as a flexible regression model that relaxes the assumption of Gaussianity. The details for implementation are presented. Bayesian nonparametric regression is applied to a dataset of claims by episode treatment group (ETG) with a specific focus on prediction of new observations. It is shown that the predictive accuracy improves when compared both to standard linear model assumptions and the more flexible Generalized Beta regression. Of the 347 different ETGs, the nonparametric regression outperformed both the standard linear and generalized beta regression on all but 11. By studying Conjunctivitis and Lung Transplants specifically, it is shown that this approach can handle complex characteristics of the regression error distribution such as skewness, thick tails, outliers, and bimodality.

Suggested Citation

  • Richardson, Robert & Hartman, Brian, 2018. "Bayesian nonparametric regression models for modeling and predicting healthcare claims," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 1-8.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:83:y:2018:i:c:p:1-8
    DOI: 10.1016/j.insmatheco.2018.06.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167668717305437
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.insmatheco.2018.06.002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. De Iorio, Maria & Muller, Peter & Rosner, Gary L. & MacEachern, Steven N., 2004. "An ANOVA Model for Dependent Random Measures," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 99, pages 205-215, January.
    2. Fellingham, Gilbert W. & Kottas, Athanasios & Hartman, Brian M., 2015. "Bayesian nonparametric predictive modeling of group health claims," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 1-10.
    3. de Jong,Piet & Heller,Gillian Z., 2008. "Generalized Linear Models for Insurance Data," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521879149.
    4. Frees, Edward W. & Valdez, Emiliano A., 2008. "Hierarchical Insurance Claims Modeling," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 103(484), pages 1457-1469.
    5. McDonald, James B. & Xu, Yexiao J., 1995. "A generalization of the beta distribution with applications," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 427-428, October.
    6. Fernando A. Quintana & Wesley O. Johnson & L. Elaine Waetjen & Ellen B. Gold, 2016. "Bayesian Nonparametric Longitudinal Data Analysis," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 111(515), pages 1168-1181, July.
    7. Dunson, David B. & Xing, Chuanhua, 2009. "Nonparametric Bayes Modeling of Multivariate Categorical Data," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 104(487), pages 1042-1051.
    8. Kudryavtsev, Andrey A., 2009. "Using quantile regression for rate-making," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 296-304, October.
    9. Rousseeuw, P. & Daniels, B. & Leroy, A., 1984. "Applying robust regression to insurance," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 67-72, January.
    10. Maria De Iorio & Wesley O. Johnson & Peter Müller & Gary L. Rosner, 2009. "Bayesian Nonparametric Nonproportional Hazards Survival Modeling," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 762-771, September.
    11. Huang, Shujuan & Hartman, Brian & Brazauskas, Vytaras, 2017. "Model Selection And Averaging Of Health Costs In Episode Treatment Groups," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(1), pages 153-167, January.
    12. Miljkovic, Tatjana & Grün, Bettina, 2016. "Modeling loss data using mixtures of distributions," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 387-396.
    13. Jara, Alejandro & Hanson, Timothy & Quintana, Fernando A. & Müller, Peter & Rosner, Gary L., 2011. "DPpackage: Bayesian Semi- and Nonparametric Modeling in R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 40(i05).
    14. Gneiting, Tilmann & Raftery, Adrian E., 2007. "Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 102, pages 359-378, March.
    15. Liang Hong & Ryan Martin, 2017. "A Flexible Bayesian Nonparametric Model for Predicting Future Insurance Claims," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 228-241, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Huang, Yifan & Meng, Shengwang, 2020. "A Bayesian nonparametric model and its application in insurance loss prediction," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 84-94.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Huang, Yifan & Meng, Shengwang, 2020. "A Bayesian nonparametric model and its application in insurance loss prediction," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 84-94.
    2. Fuzi, Mohd Fadzli Mohd & Jemain, Abdul Aziz & Ismail, Noriszura, 2016. "Bayesian quantile regression model for claim count data," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 124-137.
    3. Andrés F. Barrientos & Alejandro Jara & Fernando A. Quintana, 2017. "Fully Nonparametric Regression for Bounded Data Using Dependent Bernstein Polynomials," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 112(518), pages 806-825, April.
    4. Tzougas, George & Yik, Woo Hee & Mustaqeem, Muhammad Waqar, 2019. "Insurance ratemaking using the Exponential-Lognormal regression model," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 101729, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Verschuren, Robert Matthijs, 2022. "Frequency-severity experience rating based on latent Markovian risk profiles," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 379-392.
    6. Chenglong Ye & Lin Zhang & Mingxuan Han & Yanjia Yu & Bingxin Zhao & Yuhong Yang, 2022. "Combining Predictions of Auto Insurance Claims," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-15, April.
    7. Aivars Spilbergs & Andris Fomins & Māris Krastiņš, 2022. "Multivariate Modelling of Motor Third Party Liability Insurance Claims," European Journal of Business Science and Technology, Mendel University in Brno, Faculty of Business and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 5-18.
    8. Deprez, Laurens & Antonio, Katrien & Boute, Robert, 2021. "Pricing service maintenance contracts using predictive analytics," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 290(2), pages 530-545.
    9. Emmanuel Jordy Menvouta & Jolien Ponnet & Robin Van Oirbeek & Tim Verdonck, 2022. "mCube: Multinomial Micro-level reserving Model," Papers 2212.00101, arXiv.org.
    10. Mahsa Samsami & Ralf Wagner, 2021. "Investment Decisions with Endogeneity: A Dirichlet Tree Analysis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-19, July.
    11. Erengul Dodd & George Streftaris, 2017. "Prediction of settlement delay in critical illness insurance claims by using the generalized beta of the second kind distribution," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 66(2), pages 273-294, February.
    12. Shi, Peng & Valdez, Emiliano A., 2011. "A copula approach to test asymmetric information with applications to predictive modeling," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 226-239, September.
    13. Peng Shi & Wei Zhang, 2011. "A copula regression model for estimating firm efficiency in the insurance industry," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(10), pages 2271-2287.
    14. Gattone, Stefano Antonio & Fortuna, Francesca & Evangelista, Adelia & Di Battista, Tonio, 2022. "Simultaneous confidence bands for the functional mean of convex curves," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 183-193.
    15. Yushu Shi & Purushottam Laud & Joan Neuner, 2021. "A dependent Dirichlet process model for survival data with competing risks," Lifetime Data Analysis: An International Journal Devoted to Statistical Methods and Applications for Time-to-Event Data, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 156-176, January.
    16. Liivika Tee & Meelis Käärik & Rauno Viin, 2017. "On Comparison of Stochastic Reserving Methods with Bootstrapping," Risks, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-21, January.
    17. Shi, Yue & Punzo, Antonio & Otneim, Håkon & Maruotti, Antonello, 2023. "Hidden semi-Markov models for rainfall-related insurance claims," Discussion Papers 2023/17, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    18. Bassetti, Federico & Casarin, Roberto & Leisen, Fabrizio, 2014. "Beta-product dependent Pitman–Yor processes for Bayesian inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 180(1), pages 49-72.
    19. Chen, Kunzhi & Shen, Weining & Zhu, Weixuan, 2023. "Covariate dependent Beta-GOS process," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    20. Jared S. Murray & Jerome P. Reiter, 2016. "Multiple Imputation of Missing Categorical and Continuous Values via Bayesian Mixture Models With Local Dependence," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 111(516), pages 1466-1479, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dependent Dirichlet process; Episode treatment group; Markov chain Monte Carlo; Model comparison; Linear models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C46 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Specific Distributions
    • I11 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Analysis of Health Care Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:83:y:2018:i:c:p:1-8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505554 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.