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Parameter uncertainty and reserve risk under Solvency II

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  • Fröhlich, Andreas
  • Weng, Annegret

Abstract

In this article we consider the parameter risk in the context of internal modelling of the reserve risk under Solvency II.

Suggested Citation

  • Fröhlich, Andreas & Weng, Annegret, 2018. "Parameter uncertainty and reserve risk under Solvency II," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 130-141.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:81:y:2018:i:c:p:130-141
    DOI: 10.1016/j.insmatheco.2017.10.004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. England, Peter & Verrall, Richard, 1999. "Analytic and bootstrap estimates of prediction errors in claims reserving," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 281-293, December.
    2. England, P. D. & Verrall, R. J., 2006. "Predictive Distributions of Outstanding Liabilities in General Insurance," Annals of Actuarial Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(2), pages 221-270, September.
    3. Mack, Thomas, 1993. "Distribution-free Calculation of the Standard Error of Chain Ladder Reserve Estimates," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(2), pages 213-225, November.
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    5. Gisler, Alois, 2006. "The Estimation Error in the Chain-Ladder Reserving Method: A Bayesian Approach," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(2), pages 554-565, November.
    6. Valeria Bignozzi & Andreas Tsanakas, 2016. "Parameter Uncertainty and Residual Estimation Risk," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 83(4), pages 949-978, December.
    7. Thomas A. Severini, 2002. "On an exact probability matching property of right-invariant priors," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 89(4), pages 952-957, December.
    8. Jan Hannig & Hari Iyer & Randy C. S. Lai & Thomas C. M. Lee, 2016. "Generalized Fiducial Inference: A Review and New Results," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 111(515), pages 1346-1361, July.
    9. R. Gerrard & A. Tsanakas, 2011. "Failure Probability Under Parameter Uncertainty," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(5), pages 727-744, May.
    10. Peters, Gareth W. & Targino, Rodrigo S. & Wüthrich, Mario V., 2017. "Full Bayesian analysis of claims reserving uncertainty," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 41-53.
    11. Paulo J. R. Pinheiro & João Manuel Andrade e Silva & Maria De Lourdes Centeno, 2003. "Bootstrap Methodology in Claim Reserving," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 70(4), pages 701-714, December.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Lin, Edward M.H. & Sun, Edward W. & Yu, Min-Teh, 2020. "Behavioral data-driven analysis with Bayesian method for risk management of financial services," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    3. Michel Dacorogna, 2023. "How to Gain Confidence in the Results of Internal Risk Models? Approaches and Techniques for Validation," Risks, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-20, May.
    4. Gareth W. Peters & Matteo Malavasi & Georgy Sofronov & Pavel V. Shevchenko & Stefan Truck & Jiwook Jang, 2022. "Cyber Loss Model Risk Translates to Premium Mispricing and Risk Sensitivity," Papers 2202.10588, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2023.

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