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Modelling lifetime dependence for older ages using a multivariate Pareto distribution

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  • Alai, Daniel H.
  • Landsman, Zinoviy
  • Sherris, Michael

Abstract

The main driver of longevity risk is uncertainty in old-age mortality, especially surrounding potential dependence structures. We investigate a multivariate Pareto distribution that allows for the exploration of a variety of applications, from portfolios of standard annuities to joint-life annuity products for couples. Given the anticipated continued increase of supercentenarians, the heavy-tailed nature of the Pareto distribution is appropriate for this application. In past work, it has been shown that even a little dependence between lives can lead to much higher uncertainty. Therefore, the ability to assess and incorporate the appropriate dependence structure, whilst allowing for extreme observations, significantly improves the pricing and risk management of life-benefit products.

Suggested Citation

  • Alai, Daniel H. & Landsman, Zinoviy & Sherris, Michael, 2016. "Modelling lifetime dependence for older ages using a multivariate Pareto distribution," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 272-285.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:70:y:2016:i:c:p:272-285
    DOI: 10.1016/j.insmatheco.2016.06.016
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Denuit, Michel, 2008. "Comonotonic approximations to quantiles of life annuity conditional expected present value," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 831-838, April.
    2. Pitacco, Ermanno & Denuit, Michel & Haberman, Steven & Olivieri, Annamaria, 2009. "Modelling Longevity Dynamics for Pensions and Annuity Business," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199547272.
    3. Alai, Daniel H. & Landsman, Zinoviy & Sherris, Michael, 2013. "Lifetime dependence modelling using a truncated multivariate gamma distribution," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 542-549.
    4. Olivieri, Annamaria, 2001. "Uncertainty in mortality projections: an actuarial perspective," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 231-245, October.
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    6. D’Amato, Valeria & Haberman, Steven & Piscopo, Gabriella & Russolillo, Maria, 2012. "Modelling dependent data for longevity projections," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 694-701.
    7. Alai, Daniel H. & Landsman, Zinoviy & Sherris, Michael, 2015. "A multivariate Tweedie lifetime model: Censoring and truncation," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 203-213.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kemaloglu, Sibel Acik & Shapiro, Arnold F. & Tank, Fatih & Apaydin, Aysen, 2018. "Using fuzzy logic to interpret dependent risks," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 101-106.

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