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Bailout dynamics in a monetary union

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  • Kobielarz, M.L.

Abstract

The Eurozone bailouts consisted of credit lines with favorable lending conditions, equivalent to countries receiving implicit fiscal transfers. They are often interpreted as meant to prevent a default in the Eurozone or resolve the crisis. Contrary to this narrative, Greece defaulted on its debt and went through a deep and prolonged recession, despite receiving fiscal assistance. This paper analyzes country bailouts in a monetary union within a framework where sovereign default and exit from the union are two separate decisions. The studied bailouts prevent an exit and, thus, do not exclude subsequent defaults. The model replicates the experience of Greece and captures the coexistence of bailouts, defaults, and recession. It also sheds new light on the moral hazard discussion of bailouts by showing no significant effects from exit-driven bailouts.

Suggested Citation

  • Kobielarz, M.L., 2023. "Bailout dynamics in a monetary union," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:142:y:2023:i:c:s0022199623000375
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2023.103751
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary union; Bailouts; Fiscal transfers; Exit; Sovereign debt;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F45 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions

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