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Are lemons really hot potatoes?

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  • Engers, Maxim
  • Hartmann, Monica
  • Stern, Steven

Abstract

We model the hazard rate for car ownership spells. Our model allows us to distinguish among different types of adverse selection effects by observing the type of unobserved heterogeneity across owners of the same car. Our empirical results strongly suggest that there is a lemons effect because there is significant unobserved heterogeneity. However, they also suggest that the lemons effect is caused by the first owner rather than the manufacturer. Had the manufacturer created the lemon, the unobserved heterogeneity would be positively correlated over all owners of a given car. Instead we observe a negative correlation between the unobserved heterogeneity term for the first owner and the unobserved heterogeneity term for subsequent owners.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Industrial Organization.

Volume (Year): 27 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 (March)
Pages: 250-263

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Handle: RePEc:eee:indorg:v:27:y:2009:i:2:p:250-263

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505551

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Keywords: Adverse selection Hazard rates Automobiles;

References

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  1. Thomas W. Gilligan, 2004. "Lemons and Leases in the Used Business Aircraft Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(5), pages 1157-1186, October.
  2. Igal Hendel & Alessandro Lizzeri & Marciano Siniscalchi, 2005. "Efficient Sorting in a Dynamic Adverse-Selection Model," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(2), pages 467-497.
  3. Heckman, James & Singer, Burton, 1984. "A Method for Minimizing the Impact of Distributional Assumptions in Econometric Models for Duration Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 271-320, March.
  4. Gourieroux Christian & Monfort Alain & Renault E & Trognon A, 1985. "Simulated residuals," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 8502, CEPREMAP.
  5. Heckman, James J & Walker, James R, 1990. "The Relationship between Wages and Income and the Timing and Spacing of Births: Evidence from Swedish Longitudinal Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(6), pages 1411-41, November.
  6. Amy Finkelstein & Kathleen McGarry, 2006. "Multiple Dimensions of Private Information: Evidence from the Long-Term Care Insurance Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 938-958, September.
  7. Robert H. Porter & Peter Sattler, 1999. "Patterns of Trade in the Market for Used Durables: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 7149, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Igal Hendel & Alessandro Lizzeri, 1998. "The Role of Leasing under Adverse Selection," NBER Working Papers 6577, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1980. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 393-408, June.
  10. Igal Hendel & Alessandro Lizzeri, 1997. "Adverse Selection in Durable Goods Markets," NBER Working Papers 6194, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Rosenman, Robert E & Wilson, Wesley W, 1991. "Quality Differentials and Prices: Are Cherries Lemons?," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(6), pages 649-58, December.
  12. Brian Chezum & Bradley S. Wimmer, 2000. "Evidence of Adverse Selection from Thoroughbred Wagering," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 66(3), pages 700-714, January.
  13. Genesove, David, 1993. "Adverse Selection in the Wholesale Used Car Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(4), pages 644-65, August.
  14. Amy Finkelstein & James Poterba, 2000. "Adverse Selection in Insurance Markets: Policyholder Evidence from the U.K. Annuity Market," NBER Working Papers 8045, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Bruce D. Meyer, 1988. "Unemployment Insurance And Unemployment Spells," NBER Working Papers 2546, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Christopher Adams & Laura Hosken & Peter Newberry, 2011. "Vettes and lemons on eBay," Quantitative Marketing and Economics, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 109-127, June.
  2. Maxim Engers & Monica Hartmann & Steven Stern, 2009. "Annual miles drive used car prices," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(1), pages 1-33.

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