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Estimating the probability of informed trading--does trade misclassification matter?

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  • Boehmer, Ekkehart
  • Grammig, Joachim
  • Theissen, Erik

Abstract

Easley / Kiefer / O'Hara / Paperman (1996) (EKOP) have proposed an empirical methodology that allows to estimate the probability of informed trading and that has subsequently been used to address a wide range of issues in market microstructure. The data needed for estimation is the number of buyer- and seller-initiated trades. This information often has to be inferred by applying trade classification algorithms like the one proposed by Lee / Ready (1991). These algorithms are known to be inaccurate. In this paper we perform extensive simulations to show that inaccurate trade classification leads to biased estimation of the probability of informed trading when applying the EKOP methodology. The estimate is biased downward and the magnitude of the bias is related to the trading intensity of the stock in question. Scrutinizing prior empirical studies using the EKOP methodology, we conclude that the bias may severely affect the results of empirical microstructure studies.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Financial Markets.

Volume (Year): 10 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Pages: 26-47

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Handle: RePEc:eee:finmar:v:10:y:2007:i:1:p:26-47

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/finmar

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References

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  1. Grammig, J. & Schiereck, D. & Theissen, E., 2001. "Knowing Me, Knowing You: Trader Anonymity and Informed Trading in Parallel Markets," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 35288, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
  2. Lee, Charles M. C. & Radhakrishna, Balkrishna, 2000. "Inferring investor behavior: Evidence from TORQ data," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 83-111, May.
  3. Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen & Saar, Gideon, 2001. "How Stock Splits Affect Trading: A Microstructure Approach," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(01), pages 25-51, March.
  4. Easley, David, et al, 1996. " Liquidity, Information, and Infrequently Traded Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1405-36, September.
  5. Finucane, Thomas J., 2000. "A Direct Test of Methods for Inferring Trade Direction from Intra-Day Data," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(04), pages 553-576, December.
  6. Odders-White, Elizabeth R., 2000. "On the occurrence and consequences of inaccurate trade classification," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 259-286, August.
  7. Easley, David & Kiefer, Nicholas M & O'Hara, Maureen, 1996. " Cream-Skimming or Profit-Sharing? The Curious Role of Purchased Order Flow," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(3), pages 811-33, July.
  8. Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen & Paperman, Joseph, 1998. "Financial analysts and information-based trade," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 175-201, August.
  9. Theissen, Erik, 2001. "A test of the accuracy of the Lee/Ready trade classification algorithm," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 147-165, June.
  10. David Easley & Soeren Hvidkjaer & Maureen O'Hara, 2002. "Is Information Risk a Determinant of Asset Returns?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2185-2221, October.
  11. Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen, 1987. "Price, trade size, and information in securities markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 69-90, September.
  12. Lee, Charles M C & Ready, Mark J, 1991. " Inferring Trade Direction from Intraday Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 733-46, June.
  13. Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen, 1992. " Time and the Process of Security Price Adjustment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 576-605, June.
  14. Ellis, Katrina & Michaely, Roni & O'Hara, Maureen, 2000. "The Accuracy of Trade Classification Rules: Evidence from Nasdaq," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(04), pages 529-551, December.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Asquith, Paul & Oman, Rebecca & Safaya, Christopher, 2010. "Short sales and trade classification algorithms," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 157-173, February.
  2. Frantisek Kopriva, 2008. "Source of Information-Driven Trading on the Prague Stock Exchange," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp365, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economic Institute, Prague.
  3. Igor Filatotchev & Xiaoxiang Zhang & Jenifer Piesse, 2011. "Multiple agency perspective, family control, and private information abuse in an emerging economy," Asia Pacific Journal of Management, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 69-93, March.
  4. Paul Asquith & Rebecca Oman & Christopher Safaya, 2008. "Short Sales and Trade Classification Algorithms," NBER Working Papers 14158, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. William Lin, Hsiou-Wei & Ke, Wen-Chyan, 2011. "A computing bias in estimating the probability of informed trading," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 625-640, November.
  6. Hanousek, Jan & Podpiera, Richard, 2004. "Czech experience with market maker trading system," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 177-191, June.
  7. Grammig, Joachim & Theissen, Erik & Wuensche, Oliver, 2007. "Time and price impact of a trade: A structural approach," CFR Working Papers 07-12, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
  8. Byun, Hae-Young & Hwang, Lee-Seok & Lee, Woo-Jong, 2011. "How does ownership concentration exacerbate information asymmetry among equity investors?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 511-534, November.
  9. Akay, Ozgur (Ozzy) & Cyree, Ken B. & Griffiths, Mark D. & Winters, Drew B., 2012. "What does PIN identify? Evidence from the T-bill market," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 29-46.
  10. Brownlees, C.T. & Gallo, G.M., 2006. "Financial econometric analysis at ultra-high frequency: Data handling concerns," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 2232-2245, December.
  11. Torben G. Andersen & Oleg Bondarenko, 2013. "Assessing Measures of Order Flow Toxicity via Perfect Trade Classification," CREATES Research Papers 2013-43, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  12. Yan, Yuxing & Zhang, Shaojun, 2014. "Quality of PIN estimates and the PIN-return relationship," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 137-149.
  13. Jan Hanousek & František Kopøiva, 2011. "Detecting Information-Driven Trading in a Dealers Market," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 61(3), pages 204-229, July.
  14. Ali, Ashiq & Klasa, Sandy & Zhen Li, Oliver, 2008. "Institutional stakeholdings and better-informed traders at earnings announcements," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 47-61, September.
  15. Yan, Yuxing & Zhang, Shaojun, 2012. "An improved estimation method and empirical properties of the probability of informed trading," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 454-467.
  16. Hwang, Lee-Seok & Lee, Woo-Jong & Lim, Seung-Yeon & Park, Kyung-Ho, 2013. "Does information risk affect the implied cost of equity capital? An analysis of PIN and adjusted PIN," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 148-167.
  17. Jackson, David, 2013. "Estimating PIN for firms with high levels of trading," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 116-120.
  18. Visaltanachoti, Nuttawat & Charoenwong, Charlie & Ding, David K., 2011. "Information asymmetry in warrants and their underlying stocks on the stock exchange of Thailand," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 474-487, June.
  19. Gordon, Narelle & Watts, Edward & Wu, Qiongbing, 2014. "Information attributes, information asymmetry and industry sector returns," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 156-175.

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