Some properties of subjective probabilities induced by optimal expectations
AbstractIn this paper, we examine the properties of subjective probabilities induced by optimal expectations. We show that investors who follow optimal expectations underweigh small probabilities and overweigh large probabilities in a simple binary economy. This indicates that the subjective probabilities induced by optimal expectations are incompatible with experimentally observed results under the rank dependent probability assumption.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Finance Research Letters.
Volume (Year): 7 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl
Optimal expectation Portfolio choice Subjective probability;
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Markus K. Brunnermeier & Jonathan A. Parker, 2002.
146, Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Discussion Papers in Economics..
- Jonathan Parker & Markus K Brunnermeier, 2002. "Optimal Expectations," FMG Discussion Papers dp434, Financial Markets Group.
- Jonathan A. Parker & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2004. "Optimal Expectations," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 426, Econometric Society.
- Markus K. Brunnermeier & Jonathan A. Parker, 2004. "Optimal Expectations," NBER Working Papers 10707, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Markus K. Brunnermeier & Jonathan A. Parker, 2002. "Optimal expectations," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24954, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Brunnermeier, Markus K & Parker, Jonathan A, 2004. "Optimal Expectation," CEPR Discussion Papers 4656, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Nicholas Barberis & Ming Huang, 2008. "Stocks as Lotteries: The Implications of Probability Weighting for Security Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 2066-2100, December.
- Brunnermeier, Markus & Gollier, Christian & Parker, Jonathan, 2007.
"Optimal Beliefs, Asset Prices, and the Preference for Skewed Returns,"
IDEI Working Papers
429, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
- Markus K. Brunnermeier & Jonathan A. Parker & Christian Gollier, 2007. "Optimal Beliefs, Asset Prices, and the Preference for Skewed Returns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 159-165, May.
- Brunnermeier, Markus K & Gollier, Christian & Parker, Jonathan A, 2007. "Optimal Beliefs, Asset Prices and the Preference for Skewed Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 6181, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Markus K. Brunnermeier & Christian Gollier & Jonathan A. Parker, 2007. "Optimal Beliefs, Asset Prices, and the Preference for Skewed Returns," NBER Working Papers 12940, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Christian Gollier, 2005.
"Optimal Illusions and Decisions under Risk,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
1382, CESifo Group Munich.
- Drazen Prelec, 1998. "The Probability Weighting Function," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(3), pages 497-528, May.
- Quiggin, John, 1982. "A theory of anticipated utility," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 323-343, December.
- Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1992. " Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 297-323, October.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.