IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v47y2022ipas1544612321005250.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A novel heavy tail distribution of logarithmic returns of cryptocurrencies

Author

Listed:
  • Tran, Quang Van
  • Kukal, Jaromir

Abstract

We propose a novel distribution derived from the generalized gamma distribution by symmetrization and regularization around the mean. Besides location and scale parameters, the distribution has three shape parameters with many sub-models as special cases. Its parameters can be estimated by non-linear regression with parameter significance verification and sub-model testing. The applicability of this family of novel distributions is verified on returns of three cryptocurrencies and its suitability is tested by χ2 goodness of fit testing. The obtained results show that this novel distribution and its sub-models can be viable candidates for modeling the returns of cryptocurrencies.

Suggested Citation

  • Tran, Quang Van & Kukal, Jaromir, 2022. "A novel heavy tail distribution of logarithmic returns of cryptocurrencies," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:47:y:2022:i:pa:s1544612321005250
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2021.102574
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612321005250
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2021.102574?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Panayiotis Theodossiou, 1998. "Financial Data and the Skewed Generalized T Distribution," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(12-Part-1), pages 1650-1661, December.
    2. Jan Jakub Szczygielski & Andreas Karathanasopoulos & Adam Zaremba, 2020. "One shape fits all? A comprehensive examination of cryptocurrency return distributions," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(19), pages 1567-1573, November.
    3. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2010. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232588, December.
    4. Sensoy, Ahmet, 2019. "The inefficiency of Bitcoin revisited: A high-frequency analysis with alternative currencies," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 68-73.
    5. Aslan, Aylin & Sensoy, Ahmet, 2020. "Intraday efficiency-frequency nexus in the cryptocurrency markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
    6. Bouri, Elie & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Roubaud, David, 2019. "Co-explosivity in the cryptocurrency market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 178-183.
    7. Punzo, Antonio & Bagnato, Luca, 2021. "Modeling the cryptocurrency return distribution via Laplace scale mixtures," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 563(C).
    8. Joerg Osterrieder & Julian Lorenz, 2017. "A Statistical Risk Assessment Of Bitcoin And Its Extreme Tail Behavior," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 12(01), pages 1-19, March.
    9. Long, Huaigang & Zaremba, Adam & Demir, Ender & Szczygielski, Jan Jakub & Vasenin, Mikhail, 2020. "Seasonality in the Cross-Section of Cryptocurrency Returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
    10. Stanis{l}aw Dro.zd.z & Robert Gk{e}barowski & Ludovico Minati & Pawe{l} O'swik{e}cimka & Marcin Wk{a}torek, 2018. "Bitcoin market route to maturity? Evidence from return fluctuations, temporal correlations and multiscaling effects," Papers 1804.05916, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2018.
    11. Erdinc Akyildirim & Ahmet Goncu & Ahmet Sensoy, 2021. "Prediction of cryptocurrency returns using machine learning," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 297(1), pages 3-36, February.
    12. Akhtaruzzaman, Md & Sensoy, Ahmet & Corbet, Shaen, 2020. "The influence of Bitcoin on portfolio diversification and design," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    13. Corbet, Shaen & Eraslan, Veysel & Lucey, Brian & Sensoy, Ahmet, 2019. "The effectiveness of technical trading rules in cryptocurrency markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 32-37.
    14. Saralees Nadarajah, 2005. "A generalized normal distribution," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(7), pages 685-694.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pho, Kim Hung & Ly, Sel & Lu, Richard & Hoang, Thi Hong Van & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2021. "Is Bitcoin a better portfolio diversifier than gold? A copula and sectoral analysis for China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    2. Carmen López-Martín & Sonia Benito Muela & Raquel Arguedas, 2021. "Efficiency in cryptocurrency markets: new evidence," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 11(3), pages 403-431, September.
    3. López-Martín, Carmen & Arguedas-Sanz, Raquel & Muela, Sonia Benito, 2022. "A cryptocurrency empirical study focused on evaluating their distribution functions," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 387-407.
    4. Duan, Kun & Li, Zeming & Urquhart, Andrew & Ye, Jinqiang, 2021. "Dynamic efficiency and arbitrage potential in Bitcoin: A long-memory approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    5. Tan, Xilong & Tao, Yubo, 2023. "Trend-based forecast of cryptocurrency returns," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    6. Svogun, Daniel & Bazán-Palomino, Walter, 2022. "Technical analysis in cryptocurrency markets: Do transaction costs and bubbles matter?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    7. Melisa Ozdamar & Levent Akdeniz & Ahmet Sensoy, 2021. "Lottery-like preferences and the MAX effect in the cryptocurrency market," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-27, December.
    8. Assaf, Ata & Mokni, Khaled & Yousaf, Imran & Bhandari, Avishek, 2023. "Long memory in the high frequency cryptocurrency markets using fractal connectivity analysis: The impact of COVID-19," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    9. Sapkota, Niranjan & Grobys, Klaus, 2021. "Asset market equilibria in cryptocurrency markets: Evidence from a study of privacy and non-privacy coins," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    10. Almeida, José & Gonçalves, Tiago Cruz, 2023. "A systematic literature review of investor behavior in the cryptocurrency markets," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    11. Assaf, Ata & Bilgin, Mehmet Huseyin & Demir, Ender, 2022. "Using transfer entropy to measure information flows between cryptocurrencies," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 586(C).
    12. Ata Assaf & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana & Khaled Mokni, 2022. "True or spurious long memory in the cryptocurrency markets: evidence from a multivariate test and other Whittle estimation methods," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(3), pages 1543-1570, September.
    13. Parthajit Kayal & Purnima Rohilla, 2021. "Bitcoin in the economics and finance literature: a survey," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(7), pages 1-21, July.
    14. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2021. "Stock market reactions to upside and downside volatility of Bitcoin: A quantile analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    15. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Bouri, Elie & Ahmad, Tanveer & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2021. "The pricing of bad contagion in cryptocurrencies: A four-factor pricing model," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    16. Panayiotis Theodossiou & Polina Ellina & Christos S. Savva, 2022. "Stochastic properties and pricing of bitcoin using a GJR-GARCH model with conditional skewness and kurtosis components," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 695-716, August.
    17. Aslan, Aylin & Sensoy, Ahmet, 2020. "Intraday efficiency-frequency nexus in the cryptocurrency markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
    18. Bennett, Donyetta & Mekelburg, Erik & Williams, T.H., 2023. "BeFi meets DeFi: A behavioral finance approach to decentralized finance asset pricing," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    19. Erdinc Akyildirim & Ahmet Goncu & Ahmet Sensoy, 2021. "Prediction of cryptocurrency returns using machine learning," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 297(1), pages 3-36, February.
    20. Helder Miguel Correia Virtuoso Sebastião & Paulo José Osório Rupino Da Cunha & Pedro Manuel Cortesão Godinho, 2021. "Cryptocurrencies and blockchain. Overview and future perspectives," International Journal of Economics and Business Research, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 21(3), pages 305-342.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Generalized gamma distribution; Regularization; Parameter estimation; Logarithmic returns; Cryptocurrencies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:47:y:2022:i:pa:s1544612321005250. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.