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One shape fits all? A comprehensive examination of cryptocurrency return distributions

Author

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  • Jan Jakub Szczygielski
  • Andreas Karathanasopoulos
  • Adam Zaremba

Abstract

We perform the most comprehensive test of cryptocurrency return distributions to date. We fit 58 hypothetical distributions to 15 major cryptocurrencies to establish which of these best describes cryptocurrency returns. The answer is: ‘It depends.’ A sharp-peaked Cauchy distribution is the most likely distribution for the majority of return series. Specific distributions are definitively identified for only a handful of cryptocurrencies. The best fitting distributions are peaked and thick-tailed, with some possessing variable shape parameters. Our findings have implications for financial modelling and its applications, such as risk measurement and risk management.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan Jakub Szczygielski & Andreas Karathanasopoulos & Adam Zaremba, 2020. "One shape fits all? A comprehensive examination of cryptocurrency return distributions," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(19), pages 1567-1573, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:27:y:2020:i:19:p:1567-1573
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2019.1697420
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    Cited by:

    1. Fulvia Pennoni & Francesco Bartolucci & Gianfranco Forte & Ferdinando Ametrano, 2022. "Exploring the dependencies among main cryptocurrency log‐returns: A hidden Markov model," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 51(1), February.
    2. Martin Waltz & Abhay Kumar Singh & Ostap Okhrin, 2022. "Vulnerability-CoVaR: investigating the crypto-market," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(9), pages 1731-1745, September.
    3. Tran, Quang Van & Kukal, Jaromir, 2022. "A novel heavy tail distribution of logarithmic returns of cryptocurrencies," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
    4. Zhang, Dingxuan & Sun, Yuying & Duan, Hongbo & Hong, Yongmiao & Wang, Shouyang, 2023. "Speculation or currency? Multi-scale analysis of cryptocurrencies—The case of Bitcoin," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    5. Almeida, José & Gonçalves, Tiago Cruz, 2023. "A systematic literature review of investor behavior in the cryptocurrency markets," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).

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