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Optimal lockdown policy for vaccination during COVID-19 pandemic

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  • Fu, Yuting
  • Jin, Hanqing
  • Xiang, Haitao
  • Wang, Ning

Abstract

As the COVID-19 spreads across the world, many nations impose lockdown measures at the early stage of the pandemic to prevent the spread of the disease. Controversy surrounds the lockdown as it is a choice between economic freedom and public health. The ultimate solution to a pandemic is to vaccinate a massive population to achieve herd immunity. However, the whole vaccination programme is a long and complicated process. The virus and the vaccine will coexist for quite a long time. How to gradually ease the lockdown based on vaccination progress is an important question, as both economic and epidemiological issues are involved. In this paper, we extend the classic SIR model to find optimal decision to balance between economy and public health in the process of vaccination rollout. The model provides an approach of vaccine value estimation. Our results provide scientific suggestion for policymakers to make important decisions on how to gradually relax the strength for the lockdown over the entire vaccination cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Fu, Yuting & Jin, Hanqing & Xiang, Haitao & Wang, Ning, 2022. "Optimal lockdown policy for vaccination during COVID-19 pandemic," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:45:y:2022:i:c:s154461232100204x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2021.102123
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Viral V. Acharya & Timothy Johnson & Suresh Sundaresan & Steven Zheng, 2020. "The Value of a Cure: An Asset Pricing Perspective," NBER Working Papers 28127, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    3. Fernando Alvarez & David Argente, 2020. "A Simple Planning Problem for COVID-19 Lockdown," Working Papers 2020-34, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
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    5. Garriga, Carlos & Manuelli, Rody & Sanghi, Siddhartha, 2022. "Optimal management of an epidemic: Lockdown, vaccine and value of life," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    6. Daron Acemoglu & Victor Chernozhukov & Iván Werning & Michael D. Whinston, 2021. "Optimal Targeted Lockdowns in a Multigroup SIR Model," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 487-502, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Caulkins, J.P. & Grass, D. & Feichtinger, G. & Hartl, R.F. & Kort, P.M. & Kuhn, M. & Prskawetz, A. & Sanchez-Romero, M. & Seidl, A. & Wrzaczek, S., 2023. "The hammer and the jab: Are COVID-19 lockdowns and vaccinations complements or substitutes?," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 311(1), pages 233-250.
    2. Ren, He & Zheng, Yi, 2023. "COVID-19 vaccination and household savings: An economic recovery channel," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    3. Kumar, Viney & Bhattacharyya, Samit, 2023. "Nonlinear effect of sentiments and opinion sharing on vaccination decision in face of an outbreak: A multiplex network approach," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 175(P1).
    4. Li, Yanshuang & Shi, Yujie & Shi, Yongdong & Yi, Shangkun & Zhang, Weiping, 2023. "COVID-19 vaccinations and risk spillovers: Evidence from Asia-Pacific stock markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).

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