IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v31y2019ics1544612318307785.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An empirical analysis of the Adaptive Market Hypothesis with calendar effects:Evidence from China

Author

Listed:
  • Xiong, Xiong
  • Meng, Yongqiang
  • Li, Xiao
  • Shen, Dehua

Abstract

Adaptive Market Hypothesis (AMH) claims that the degree of market efficiency is related to environmental factors characterizing market conditions. This paper examines the AMH through four calendar effects in China stock market. In particular, we employ subsample analysis and rolling window analysis as well as construct investment strategies based on calendar effects to determine whether they perform as AMH implies. The empirical findings show that both the four calendar effects’ performance and excess returns of the investment strategies vary from time to time. Generally speaking, the empirical results suggest that AMH gives a better explanation for the market dynamics in China stock market.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiong, Xiong & Meng, Yongqiang & Li, Xiao & Shen, Dehua, 2019. "An empirical analysis of the Adaptive Market Hypothesis with calendar effects:Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:31:y:2019:i:c:s1544612318307785
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2018.11.020
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612318307785
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2018.11.020?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chong, Terence Tai-Leung & Lam, Tau-Hing & Yan, Isabel Kit-Ming, 2012. "Is the Chinese stock market really inefficient?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 122-137.
    2. Neely, Christopher J. & Weller, Paul A. & Ulrich, Joshua M., 2009. "The Adaptive Markets Hypothesis: Evidence from the Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(2), pages 467-488, April.
    3. Doyle, John R. & Chen, Catherine Huirong, 2009. "The wandering weekday effect in major stock markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(8), pages 1388-1399, August.
    4. Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1980. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 393-408, June.
    5. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier & Kim, Jae H., 2012. "Exchange-rate return predictability and the adaptive markets hypothesis: Evidence from major foreign exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1607-1626.
    6. Gu, Anthony Yanxiang, 2003. "The declining January effect: evidences from the U.S. equity markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 395-404.
    7. Rozeff, Michael S. & Kinney, William Jr., 1976. "Capital market seasonality: The case of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 379-402, October.
    8. Kunkel, Robert A. & Compton, William S. & Beyer, Scott, 2003. "The turn-of-the-month effect still lives: the international evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 207-221.
    9. Sun, Qian & Tong, Wilson H.S., 2010. "Risk and the January effect," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 965-974, May.
    10. Jorge Brusa & Pu Liu, 2004. "The Day-of-the-Week and the Week-of-the-Month Effects: An Analysis of Investors' Trading Activities," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 19-30, July.
    11. Hull, Matthew & McGroarty, Frank, 2014. "Do emerging markets become more efficient as they develop? Long memory persistence in equity indices," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 45-61.
    12. Urquhart, Andrew & McGroarty, Frank, 2014. "Calendar effects, market conditions and the Adaptive Market Hypothesis: Evidence from long-run U.S. data," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 154-166.
    13. Sidney B. Wachtel, 1942. "Certain Observations on Seasonal Movements in Stock Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 15, pages 184-184.
    14. Connolly, Robert A., 1989. "An Examination of the Robustness of the Weekend Effect," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(2), pages 133-169, June.
    15. Keim, Donald B., 1983. "Size-related anomalies and stock return seasonality : Further empirical evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 13-32, June.
    16. Kato, Kiyoshi & Schallheim, James S., 1985. "Seasonal and Size Anomalies in the Japanese Stock Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(2), pages 243-260, June.
    17. Alexandru Todea & Maria Ulici & Simona Silaghi, 2009. "Adaptive Markets Hypothesis - Evidence from Asia-Pacific Financial Markets," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 1(1), pages 007-013, December.
    18. Noda, Akihiko, 2016. "A test of the adaptive market hypothesis using a time-varying AR model in Japan," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 66-71.
    19. Mirzaee Ghazani, Majid & Khalili Araghi, Mansour, 2014. "Evaluation of the adaptive market hypothesis as an evolutionary perspective on market efficiency: Evidence from the Tehran stock exchange," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 50-59.
    20. Rodriguez, E. & Aguilar-Cornejo, M. & Femat, R. & Alvarez-Ramirez, J., 2014. "US stock market efficiency over weekly, monthly, quarterly and yearly time scales," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 413(C), pages 554-564.
    21. Jorge Brusa & Pu Liu & Craig Schulman, 2005. "Weekend Effect, ‘Reverse’ Weekend Effect, and Investor Trading Activities," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(7‐8), pages 1495-1517, September.
    22. Ariel, Robert A., 1987. "A monthly effect in stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 161-174, March.
    23. Lei Gao & Gerhard Kling, 2005. "Calendar Effects in Chinese Stock Market," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 6(1), pages 75-88, May.
    24. Urquhart, Andrew & McGroarty, Frank, 2016. "Are stock markets really efficient? Evidence of the adaptive market hypothesis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 39-49.
    25. Kim, Jae H. & Shamsuddin, Abul & Lim, Kian-Ping, 2011. "Stock return predictability and the adaptive markets hypothesis: Evidence from century-long U.S. data," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 868-879.
    26. Urquhart, Andrew & Hudson, Robert, 2013. "Efficient or adaptive markets? Evidence from major stock markets using very long run historic data," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 130-142.
    27. Yuan, Tian & Gupta, Rakesh, 2014. "Chinese Lunar New Year effect in Asian stock markets, 1999–2012," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 529-537.
    28. Jorge Brusa & Pu Liu & Craig Schulman, 2000. "The Weekend Effect, ‘Reverse’ Weekend Effect, and Firm Size," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(5‐6), pages 555-574, June.
    29. Hiremath, Gourishankar S & Kumari, Jyoti, 2014. "Stock returns predictability and the adaptive market hypothesis in emerging markets: evidence from India," MPRA Paper 58378, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    30. Seyed Mehdian & Mark Perry, 2002. "Anomalies in US equity markets: a re-examination of the January effect," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(2), pages 141-145.
    31. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    32. Jorge Brusa & Pu Liu & Craig Schulman, 2005. "Weekend Effect, 'Reverse' Weekend Effect, and Investor Trading Activities," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(7-8), pages 1495-1517.
    33. Gibbons, Michael R & Hess, Patrick, 1981. "Day of the Week Effects and Asset Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(4), pages 579-596, October.
    34. Robert Engle, 2001. "GARCH 101: The Use of ARCH/GARCH Models in Applied Econometrics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 157-168, Fall.
    35. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Lee, Jun-De, 2009. "Energy prices, multiple structural breaks, and efficient market hypothesis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(4), pages 466-479, April.
    36. Jian Zhou & Jin Man Lee, 2013. "Adaptive market hypothesis: evidence from the REIT market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(21), pages 1649-1662, November.
    37. Hiremath, Gourishankar S. & Narayan, Seema, 2016. "Testing the adaptive market hypothesis and its determinants for the Indian stock markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 173-180.
    38. Stephen Hall & Timothy J Foxon & Ronan Bolton, 2017. "Investing in low-carbon transitions: energy finance as an adaptive market," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 280-298, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tianbao Zhou & Xinghao Li & Peng Wang, 2021. "Statistics and Practice on the Trend’s Reversal and Turning Points of Chinese Stock Indices Based on Gann’s Time Theory and Solar Terms Effect," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(15), pages 1-24, July.
    2. Thiago Christiano Silva & Benjamin Miranda Tabak & Idamar Magalhães Ferreira, 2019. "Modeling Investor Behavior Using Machine Learning: Mean-Reversion and Momentum Trading Strategies," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2019, pages 1-14, December.
    3. Guo, Shuxin & Yuan, Yue & Ma, Feng, 2022. "Cross-sectional seasonalities and seasonal reversals: Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    4. Ferreira, Joaquim & Morais, Flávio, 2023. "Predict or to be predicted? A transfer entropy view between adaptive green markets, structural shocks and sentiment index," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    5. Ali Fayyaz Munir & Mohd Edil Abd. Sukor & Shahrin Saaid Shaharuddin, 2022. "Adaptive Market Hypothesis and Time-varying Contrarian Effect: Evidence From Emerging Stock Markets of South Asia," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(1), pages 21582440211, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Urquhart, Andrew & McGroarty, Frank, 2014. "Calendar effects, market conditions and the Adaptive Market Hypothesis: Evidence from long-run U.S. data," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 154-166.
    2. Pınar Evrim Mandacı & F. Dilvin Taskın & Zeliha Can Ergun, 2019. "Adaptive Market Hypothesis," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(4), pages 84-101.
    3. Urquhart, Andrew & McGroarty, Frank, 2016. "Are stock markets really efficient? Evidence of the adaptive market hypothesis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 39-49.
    4. Al-Khazali, Osamah & Mirzaei, Ali, 2017. "Stock market anomalies, market efficiency and the adaptive market hypothesis: Evidence from Islamic stock indices," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 190-208.
    5. Ashok Chanabasangouda Patil & Shailesh Rastogi, 2019. "Time-Varying Price–Volume Relationship and Adaptive Market Efficiency: A Survey of the Empirical Literature," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-18, June.
    6. Biswabhusan Bhuyan & Subhamitra Patra & Ranjan Kumar Bhuian, 2020. "Market Adaptability and Evolving Predictability of Stock Returns: An Evidence from India," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 27(4), pages 605-619, December.
    7. Plastun, Alex & Sibande, Xolani & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2019. "Rise and fall of calendar anomalies over a century," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 181-205.
    8. Mushinada, Venkata Narasimha Chary, 2020. "Are individual investors irrational or adaptive to market dynamics?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).
    9. Suliman Zakaria Suliman Abdalla, 2015. "An Investigation of the Month-of-The-Year Effect for the Sudanese Stock Market," Working Papers 924, Economic Research Forum, revised Jun 2015.
    10. Degenhardt, Thomas & Auer, Benjamin R., 2018. "The “Sell in May” effect: A review and new empirical evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 169-205.
    11. Boya, Christophe M., 2019. "From efficient markets to adaptive markets: Evidence from the French stock exchange," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 156-165.
    12. Andrew Urquhart, 2017. "How predictable are precious metal returns?," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(14), pages 1390-1413, November.
    13. Plastun, Alex & Sibande, Xolani & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2020. "Historical evolution of monthly anomalies in international stock markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    14. Jasman Tuyon & Zamri Ahmada, 2016. "Behavioural finance perspectives on Malaysian stock market efficiency," Borsa Istanbul Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 16(1), pages 43-61, March.
    15. Carlos Francisco Alves & Duarte André de Castro Reis, 2018. "Evidence of Idiosyncratic Seasonality in ETFs Performance," FEP Working Papers 603, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    16. Syeda Tayyaba Ijaz & Rabia Komal, 2015. "Role Of Hurst Exponent In Prediction Of Market Efficiency In Kse-100 Index," IBT Journal of Business Studies (JBS), Ilma University, Faculty of Management Science, vol. 11(2), pages 11-14.
    17. Mr. M. Awais Mehmood & Dr. Faisal Aftab & Dr. Hafiz Mushtaq, 2016. "Role Of Social Media Marketing (Smm) In Hei’S Admission," IBT Journal of Business Studies (JBS), Ilma University, Faculty of Management Science, vol. 12(1), pages 12-10.
    18. Sehrish Kayani & Usman Ayub & Imran Abbas Jadoon, 2019. "Adaptive Market Hypothesis and Artificial Neural Networks: Evidence from Pakistan," Global Regional Review, Humanity Only, vol. 4(2), pages 190-203, June.
    19. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, November.
    20. Semei Coronado-Ram'irez & Pedro Celso-Arellano & Omar Rojas, 2014. "Adaptive Market Efficiency of Agricultural Commodity Futures Contracts," Papers 1412.8017, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2015.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Adaptive Market Hypothesis; Calendar effect; Investment strategy; China stock market;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G40 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:31:y:2019:i:c:s1544612318307785. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.