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Critical dynamics related to a recent Bitcoin crash

Author

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  • Zitis, Pavlos I.
  • Contoyiannis, Yiannis
  • Potirakis, Stelios M.

Abstract

The cryptocurrency market is an emerging market that is characterized by intense volatility and therefore the study of its dynamics presents increased interest. The present work investigates the issue of the critical dynamics of a financial complex system approaching a crash, by using the Method of Critical Fluctuation (MCF) which is known for its ability to uncover critical dynamics. Specifically, we study the recent crash that took place in the cryptocurrency market (starting on 12 May 2021), by analyzing the “Contracts for Difference” (CFDs) prices on Bitcoin/USD (Bitcoin to US-Dollar exchange rate) at five different high frequency trading time intervals (60, 30, 15, 5 and 1min). The results show that, for the 60-min and 30-min sampling intervals, a specific sequence of indications is identified, in agreement to the evolution towards extreme events in other complex systems, such as earthquakes. This sequence of indications isn't maintained as the sampling frequency is increased. Notably, the existence of critical dynamics during the system's evolution has been detected both in equilibrium and out-of-equilibrium by means of the same analysis method (MCF). The obtained results indicate that the MCF could provide useful information for portfolio analysis and risk management.

Suggested Citation

  • Zitis, Pavlos I. & Contoyiannis, Yiannis & Potirakis, Stelios M., 2022. "Critical dynamics related to a recent Bitcoin crash," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:84:y:2022:i:c:s1057521922003180
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2022.102368
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    Cited by:

    1. Marcin Wk{a}torek & Jaros{l}aw Kwapie'n & Stanis{l}aw Dro.zd.z, 2023. "Cryptocurrencies Are Becoming Part of the World Global Financial Market," Papers 2303.00495, arXiv.org.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bitcoin; Method of critical fluctuations; Criticality; Financial crashes; High-frequency data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis

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