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An optimal hybrid model for atomic power generation prediction in Japan

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  • Li, Guo-Dong
  • Masuda, Shiro
  • Nagai, Masatake

Abstract

The grey model GM(1,1), which is based on grey system theory, has become a powerful tool for the prediction problems in power systems. However, the prediction accuracy of grey model is unsatisfying when original data set shows great randomness. In this paper, in order to improve the prediction capability of grey model, the exponential smoothing (ES) method is integrated into GM(1,1) through the preprocessing for original data set. We call the proposed model as ESGM(1,1). The Taylor approximation method is then presented to find the optimal coefficient values of ESGM(1,1). The improved model is defined as T-ESGM(1,1). Finally, Markov chain model is applied to T-ESGM(1,1) for achieving the high prediction accuracy. We call the proposed model as MC-T-ESGM(1,1). A real case of atomic power generation in Japan is used to validate the effectiveness of proposed model.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Guo-Dong & Masuda, Shiro & Nagai, Masatake, 2012. "An optimal hybrid model for atomic power generation prediction in Japan," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 655-661.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:45:y:2012:i:1:p:655-661
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2012.07.031
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Zhu, Y. & Li, Y.P. & Huang, G.H. & Fan, Y.R. & Nie, S., 2015. "A dynamic model to optimize municipal electric power systems by considering carbon emission trading under uncertainty," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 636-649.
    2. Xu, Ning & Dang, Yaoguo & Gong, Yande, 2017. "Novel grey prediction model with nonlinear optimized time response method for forecasting of electricity consumption in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 473-480.
    3. Qu, Zhijian & Xu, Juan & Wang, Zixiao & Chi, Rui & Liu, Hanxin, 2021. "Prediction of electricity generation from a combined cycle power plant based on a stacking ensemble and its hyperparameter optimization with a grid-search method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).

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