IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v266y2023ics0360544222033059.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A dual-scale deep learning model based on ELM-BiLSTM and improved reptile search algorithm for wind power prediction

Author

Listed:
  • Xiong, Jinlin
  • Peng, Tian
  • Tao, Zihan
  • Zhang, Chu
  • Song, Shihao
  • Nazir, Muhammad Shahzad

Abstract

Accurate wind power forecast is critical to the efficient and safe running of power systems. A hybrid model that combines complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition (CEEMD), sample entropy (SE), random forest (RF), improved reptile search algorithm (IRSA), bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) network and extreme learning machine (ELM) is proposed for wind power prediction in this paper. Firstly, the CEEMD decomposes the non-stationary original wind power sequence into comparatively stationary modal components, and sample entropy aggregation is used to decrease the computational complexity. Secondly, redundant features are further eliminated through random forest feature selection. Thirdly, the BiLSTM model and the ELM model are applied to forecast high and low frequency components, respectively. IRSA is used to optimize the model's parameters. Finally, the predicted value of each component is summed to arrive at the final predicted value of wind power. By comparing with ten other models, the results show that the dual-scale ensemble model of BiLSTM and ELM can obtain better prediction accuracy. The RMSE of the model proposed in this study is reduced by more than 10% compared with other benchmark models, which demonstrates that the proposed model can better fit the wind power data and achieve better prediction results.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiong, Jinlin & Peng, Tian & Tao, Zihan & Zhang, Chu & Song, Shihao & Nazir, Muhammad Shahzad, 2023. "A dual-scale deep learning model based on ELM-BiLSTM and improved reptile search algorithm for wind power prediction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:266:y:2023:i:c:s0360544222033059
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2022.126419
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544222033059
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2022.126419?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zhang, Chu & Hua, Lei & Ji, Chunlei & Shahzad Nazir, Muhammad & Peng, Tian, 2022. "An evolutionary robust solar radiation prediction model based on WT-CEEMDAN and IASO-optimized outlier robust extreme learning machine," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 322(C).
    2. Ding, Yunfei & Chen, Zijun & Zhang, Hongwei & Wang, Xin & Guo, Ying, 2022. "A short-term wind power prediction model based on CEEMD and WOA-KELM," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 188-198.
    3. Dalton, Amaris & Bekker, Bernard, 2022. "Exogenous atmospheric variables as wind speed predictors in machine learning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 319(C).
    4. Liu, Yanli & Wang, Junyi, 2022. "Transfer learning based multi-layer extreme learning machine for probabilistic wind power forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 312(C).
    5. Hu, Jianming & Wang, Jianzhou & Zeng, Guowei, 2013. "A hybrid forecasting approach applied to wind speed time series," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 185-194.
    6. Ma, Zhengjing & Mei, Gang, 2022. "A hybrid attention-based deep learning approach for wind power prediction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 323(C).
    7. Meng, Anbo & Zhu, Zibin & Deng, Weisi & Ou, Zuhong & Lin, Shan & Wang, Chenen & Xu, Xuancong & Wang, Xiaolin & Yin, Hao & Luo, Jianqiang, 2022. "A novel wind power prediction approach using multivariate variational mode decomposition and multi-objective crisscross optimization based deep extreme learning machine," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    8. Liu, Da & Niu, Dongxiao & Wang, Hui & Fan, Leilei, 2014. "Short-term wind speed forecasting using wavelet transform and support vector machines optimized by genetic algorithm," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 592-597.
    9. Peng, Tian & Zhang, Chu & Zhou, Jianzhong & Nazir, Muhammad Shahzad, 2021. "An integrated framework of Bi-directional long-short term memory (BiLSTM) based on sine cosine algorithm for hourly solar radiation forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    10. Hu, Shuai & Xiang, Yue & Zhang, Hongcai & Xie, Shanyi & Li, Jianhua & Gu, Chenghong & Sun, Wei & Liu, Junyong, 2021. "Hybrid forecasting method for wind power integrating spatial correlation and corrected numerical weather prediction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
    11. Costa, Alexandre & Crespo, Antonio & Navarro, Jorge & Lizcano, Gil & Madsen, Henrik & Feitosa, Everaldo, 2008. "A review on the young history of the wind power short-term prediction," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 12(6), pages 1725-1744, August.
    12. Zhang, Chu & Ma, Huixin & Hua, Lei & Sun, Wei & Nazir, Muhammad Shahzad & Peng, Tian, 2022. "An evolutionary deep learning model based on TVFEMD, improved sine cosine algorithm, CNN and BiLSTM for wind speed prediction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(PA).
    13. Wang, Han & Han, Shuang & Liu, Yongqian & Yan, Jie & Li, Li, 2019. "Sequence transfer correction algorithm for numerical weather prediction wind speed and its application in a wind power forecasting system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 237(C), pages 1-10.
    14. Ye, Lin & Dai, Binhua & Li, Zhuo & Pei, Ming & Zhao, Yongning & Lu, Peng, 2022. "An ensemble method for short-term wind power prediction considering error correction strategy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 322(C).
    15. Hui Wang & Jianbo Sun & Weijun Wang, 2018. "Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Based on EEMD and a Variable-Weight Combination Forecasting Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-11, July.
    16. Jung, Sungmoon & Kwon, Soon-Duck, 2013. "Weighted error functions in artificial neural networks for improved wind energy potential estimation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 778-790.
    17. Yin, Hao & Ou, Zuhong & Fu, Jiajin & Cai, Yongfeng & Chen, Shun & Meng, Anbo, 2021. "A novel transfer learning approach for wind power prediction based on a serio-parallel deep learning architecture," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Zhongliang & Zhu, Hongyu & Zhang, Dongdong & Goh, Hui Hwang & Dong, Yunxuan & Wu, Thomas, 2023. "Modelling of wind and photovoltaic power output considering dynamic spatio-temporal correlation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 352(C).
    2. Yi Liu & Jun He & Yu Wang & Zong Liu & Lixun He & Yanyang Wang, 2023. "Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Based on CEEMDAN-SE and Bidirectional LSTM Neural Network with Markov Chain," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(14), pages 1-25, July.
    3. Suo, Leiming & Peng, Tian & Song, Shihao & Zhang, Chu & Wang, Yuhan & Fu, Yongyan & Nazir, Muhammad Shahzad, 2023. "Wind speed prediction by a swarm intelligence based deep learning model via signal decomposition and parameter optimization using improved chimp optimization algorithm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    4. Chen, Wenhe & Zhou, Hanting & Cheng, Longsheng & Xia, Min, 2023. "Prediction of regional wind power generation using a multi-objective optimized deep learning model with temporal pattern attention," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(PB).
    5. Haotian Ma & Yang Wang & Mengyang He, 2023. "Collaborative Optimization Scheduling of Resilience and Economic Oriented Islanded Integrated Energy System under Low Carbon Transition," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-21, November.
    6. Li, Jingmiao & Liu, Dehong, 2023. "Carbon price forecasting based on secondary decomposition and feature screening," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(PA).
    7. Sun, Shaolong & Du, Zongjuan & Jin, Kun & Li, Hongtao & Wang, Shouyang, 2023. "Spatiotemporal wind power forecasting approach based on multi-factor extraction method and an indirect strategy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 350(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sun, Shaolong & Du, Zongjuan & Jin, Kun & Li, Hongtao & Wang, Shouyang, 2023. "Spatiotemporal wind power forecasting approach based on multi-factor extraction method and an indirect strategy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 350(C).
    2. Liu, Ling & Wang, Jujie & Li, Jianping & Wei, Lu, 2023. "An online transfer learning model for wind turbine power prediction based on spatial feature construction and system-wide update," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 340(C).
    3. Lu, Peng & Ye, Lin & Zhao, Yongning & Dai, Binhua & Pei, Ming & Tang, Yong, 2021. "Review of meta-heuristic algorithms for wind power prediction: Methodologies, applications and challenges," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).
    4. Adam Krechowicz & Maria Krechowicz & Katarzyna Poczeta, 2022. "Machine Learning Approaches to Predict Electricity Production from Renewable Energy Sources," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(23), pages 1-41, December.
    5. Wen-Chang Tsai & Chih-Ming Hong & Chia-Sheng Tu & Whei-Min Lin & Chiung-Hsing Chen, 2023. "A Review of Modern Wind Power Generation Forecasting Technologies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-40, July.
    6. Wang, Jianzhou & Xiong, Shenghua, 2014. "A hybrid forecasting model based on outlier detection and fuzzy time series – A case study on Hainan wind farm of China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 526-541.
    7. Hu, Jianming & Wang, Jianzhou, 2015. "Short-term wind speed prediction using empirical wavelet transform and Gaussian process regression," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 93(P2), pages 1456-1466.
    8. Santamaría-Bonfil, G. & Reyes-Ballesteros, A. & Gershenson, C., 2016. "Wind speed forecasting for wind farms: A method based on support vector regression," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 790-809.
    9. Sen Guo & Haoran Zhao & Huiru Zhao, 2017. "A New Hybrid Wind Power Forecaster Using the Beveridge-Nelson Decomposition Method and a Relevance Vector Machine Optimized by the Ant Lion Optimizer," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-20, July.
    10. Liu, Jinqiang & Wang, Xiaoru & Lu, Yun, 2017. "A novel hybrid methodology for short-term wind power forecasting based on adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 620-629.
    11. Wang, Jianzhou & Qin, Shanshan & Zhou, Qingping & Jiang, Haiyan, 2015. "Medium-term wind speeds forecasting utilizing hybrid models for three different sites in Xinjiang, China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 91-101.
    12. Yuansheng Huang & Lei Yang & Shijian Liu & Guangli Wang, 2019. "Multi-Step Wind Speed Forecasting Based On Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition, Long Short Term Memory Network and Error Correction Strategy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-22, May.
    13. Wang, Yuhan & Zhang, Chu & Fu, Yongyan & Suo, Leiming & Song, Shihao & Peng, Tian & Shahzad Nazir, Muhammad, 2023. "Hybrid solar radiation forecasting model with temporal convolutional network using data decomposition and improved artificial ecosystem-based optimization algorithm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 280(C).
    14. Lv, Sheng-Xiang & Wang, Lin, 2023. "Multivariate wind speed forecasting based on multi-objective feature selection approach and hybrid deep learning model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PE).
    15. Jha, Sunil Kr. & Bilalovic, Jasmin & Jha, Anju & Patel, Nilesh & Zhang, Han, 2017. "Renewable energy: Present research and future scope of Artificial Intelligence," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 297-317.
    16. Yuanzhuo Du & Kun Zhang & Qianzhi Shao & Zhe Chen, 2023. "A Short-Term Prediction Model of Wind Power with Outliers: An Integration of Long Short-Term Memory, Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition, and Sample Entropy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-15, April.
    17. Zjavka, Ladislav, 2015. "Wind speed forecast correction models using polynomial neural networks," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 998-1006.
    18. Zhang, Chi & Wei, Haikun & Zhao, Junsheng & Liu, Tianhong & Zhu, Tingting & Zhang, Kanjian, 2016. "Short-term wind speed forecasting using empirical mode decomposition and feature selection," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 96(PA), pages 727-737.
    19. Liu, Chenyu & Zhang, Xuemin & Mei, Shengwei & Zhen, Zhao & Jia, Mengshuo & Li, Zheng & Tang, Haiyan, 2022. "Numerical weather prediction enhanced wind power forecasting: Rank ensemble and probabilistic fluctuation awareness," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 313(C).
    20. Yang, Yang & Lang, Jin & Wu, Jian & Zhang, Yanyan & Su, Lijie & Song, Xiangman, 2022. "Wind speed forecasting with correlation network pruning and augmentation: A two-phase deep learning method," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 267-282.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:266:y:2023:i:c:s0360544222033059. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.