IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v254y2022ipas0360544222011860.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

District heating load prediction algorithm based on bidirectional long short-term memory network model

Author

Listed:
  • Cui, Mianshan

Abstract

Heating load prediction based on machine learning algorithms has received increasing attention, especially the Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) network, have been shown to have a superior performance in predicting the heat load consumption. However, most of the current research reports on load prediction models using LSTM models are focused on the unidirectional (Uni-LSTM) network. In this paper, a bidirectional (Bi-LSTM) network for heat load prediction is proposed to make full use of the model hyperparameters to obtain the optimal model and to fully compare with the Uni-LSTM model, and the Bi-LSTM model can improve the prediction accuracy of heat load in a district heating system by using both past and future weather information. In addition, the two types of models are set up with different depth-stacked layers, and for each of the proposed models, a hyperparametric optimization tool has been used to obtain the best model. The results indicate that the increase in depth-stacked LSTM layers has no significant improvement in the prediction accuracy. The input time series length reflects the inertia influence duration of the district heating system, and the optimal model can be obtained for different settings of input time series length. The best optimally configured models were compared, and the single-layer Bi-LSTM model outperformed the single-layer Uni-LSTM model by 19.56%, 16.43%, 14.16%, and 20.69% in terms of the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Average Percentage Error (MAPE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and the coefficient of variation of the RMSE (CV-RMSE), respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Cui, Mianshan, 2022. "District heating load prediction algorithm based on bidirectional long short-term memory network model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(PA).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:254:y:2022:i:pa:s0360544222011860
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2022.124283
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544222011860
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2022.124283?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lu, Yakai & Tian, Zhe & Zhang, Qiang & Zhou, Ruoyu & Chu, Chengshan, 2021. "Data augmentation strategy for short-term heating load prediction model of residential building," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    2. Lim, Jae-Han & Song, Jin-Hee & Song, Seung-Yeong, 2014. "Development of operational guidelines for thermally activated building system according to heating and cooling load characteristics," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 123-135.
    3. Wang, Zhe & Hong, Tianzhen & Piette, Mary Ann, 2020. "Building thermal load prediction through shallow machine learning and deep learning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(C).
    4. Pao, Hsiao-Tien, 2006. "Comparing linear and nonlinear forecasts for Taiwan's electricity consumption," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 31(12), pages 2129-2141.
    5. Koschwitz, D. & Frisch, J. & van Treeck, C., 2018. "Data-driven heating and cooling load predictions for non-residential buildings based on support vector machine regression and NARX Recurrent Neural Network: A comparative study on district scale," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PA), pages 134-142.
    6. Laib, Oussama & Khadir, Mohamed Tarek & Mihaylova, Lyudmila, 2019. "Toward efficient energy systems based on natural gas consumption prediction with LSTM Recurrent Neural Networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 530-542.
    7. Suryanarayana, Gowri & Lago, Jesus & Geysen, Davy & Aleksiejuk, Piotr & Johansson, Christian, 2018. "Thermal load forecasting in district heating networks using deep learning and advanced feature selection methods," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 141-149.
    8. Xue, Guixiang & Qi, Chengying & Li, Han & Kong, Xiangfei & Song, Jiancai, 2020. "Heating load prediction based on attention long short term memory: A case study of Xingtai," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    9. Lago, Jesus & De Ridder, Fjo & De Schutter, Bart, 2018. "Forecasting spot electricity prices: Deep learning approaches and empirical comparison of traditional algorithms," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 386-405.
    10. Eachempati, Prajwal & Srivastava, Praveen Ranjan & Kumar, Ajay & Tan, Kim Hua & Gupta, Shivam, 2021. "Validating the impact of accounting disclosures on stock market: A deep neural network approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    11. Zoubin Ghahramani, 2015. "Probabilistic machine learning and artificial intelligence," Nature, Nature, vol. 521(7553), pages 452-459, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sharma, Abhishek & Jain, Sachin Kumar, 2022. "A novel seasonal segmentation approach for day-ahead load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 257(C).
    2. Wang, Zhijin & Liu, Xiufeng & Huang, Yaohui & Zhang, Peisong & Fu, Yonggang, 2023. "A multivariate time series graph neural network for district heat load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(PA).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jason Runge & Radu Zmeureanu, 2021. "A Review of Deep Learning Techniques for Forecasting Energy Use in Buildings," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-26, January.
    2. Chung, Won Hee & Gu, Yeong Hyeon & Yoo, Seong Joon, 2022. "District heater load forecasting based on machine learning and parallel CNN-LSTM attention," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    3. Saima Akhtar & Sulman Shahzad & Asad Zaheer & Hafiz Sami Ullah & Heybet Kilic & Radomir Gono & Michał Jasiński & Zbigniew Leonowicz, 2023. "Short-Term Load Forecasting Models: A Review of Challenges, Progress, and the Road Ahead," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-29, May.
    4. Lu, Yakai & Tian, Zhe & Zhou, Ruoyu & Liu, Wenjing, 2021. "A general transfer learning-based framework for thermal load prediction in regional energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    5. Tania Cerquitelli & Giovanni Malnati & Daniele Apiletti, 2019. "Exploiting Scalable Machine-Learning Distributed Frameworks to Forecast Power Consumption of Buildings," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-18, July.
    6. Zhong, Wei & Huang, Wei & Lin, Xiaojie & Li, Zhongbo & Zhou, Yi, 2020. "Research on data-driven identification and prediction of heat response time of urban centralized heating system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    7. Ling, Jihong & Zhang, Bingyang & Dai, Na & Xing, Jincheng, 2023. "Coupling input feature construction methods and machine learning algorithms for hourly secondary supply temperature prediction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(C).
    8. de Ridder, Fjo & van Roy, Jeroen & de Schutter, Bert & Mazairac, Wiet, 2021. "An exploration of shared heat storage systems in the greenhouse horticulture industry," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    9. Maciej Slowik & Wieslaw Urban, 2022. "Machine Learning Short-Term Energy Consumption Forecasting for Microgrids in a Manufacturing Plant," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-16, May.
    10. Saletti, Costanza & Zimmerman, Nathan & Morini, Mirko & Kyprianidis, Konstantinos & Gambarotta, Agostino, 2021. "Enabling smart control by optimally managing the State of Charge of district heating networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    11. Ng, Rong Wang & Begam, Kasim Mumtaj & Rajkumar, Rajprasad Kumar & Wong, Yee Wan & Chong, Lee Wai, 2021. "An improved self-organizing incremental neural network model for short-term time-series load prediction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 292(C).
    12. Guelpa, Elisa & Marincioni, Ludovica & Verda, Vittorio, 2019. "Towards 4th generation district heating: Prediction of building thermal load for optimal management," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 510-522.
    13. Yuan, Jianjuan & Huang, Ke & Han, Zhao & Wang, Chendong & Lu, Shilei & Zhou, Zhihua, 2022. "Evaluation of the operation data for improving the prediction accuracy of heating parameters in heating substation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PB).
    14. Yue, Naihua & Caini, Mauro & Li, Lingling & Zhao, Yang & Li, Yu, 2023. "A comparison of six metamodeling techniques applied to multi building performance vectors prediction on gymnasiums under multiple climate conditions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 332(C).
    15. Wang, Chendong & Yuan, Jianjuan & Zhang, Ji & Deng, Na & Zhou, Zhihua & Gao, Feng, 2020. "Multi-criteria comprehensive study on predictive algorithm of heating energy consumption of district heating station based on timeseries processing," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    16. Gao, Lei & Liu, Tianyuan & Cao, Tao & Hwang, Yunho & Radermacher, Reinhard, 2021. "Comparing deep learning models for multi energy vectors prediction on multiple types of building," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).
    17. Li, Guannan & Li, Fan & Ahmad, Tanveer & Liu, Jiangyan & Li, Tao & Fang, Xi & Wu, Yubei, 2022. "Performance evaluation of sequence-to-sequence-Attention model for short-term multi-step ahead building energy predictions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    18. Liyang Tang, 2020. "Application of Nonlinear Autoregressive with Exogenous Input (NARX) neural network in macroeconomic forecasting, national goal setting and global competitiveness assessment," Papers 2005.08735, arXiv.org.
    19. Hwang, Jun Kwon & Yun, Geun Young & Lee, Sukho & Seo, Hyeongjoon & Santamouris, Mat, 2020. "Using deep learning approaches with variable selection process to predict the energy performance of a heating and cooling system," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 1227-1245.
    20. AL-Alimi, Dalal & AlRassas, Ayman Mutahar & Al-qaness, Mohammed A.A. & Cai, Zhihua & Aseeri, Ahmad O. & Abd Elaziz, Mohamed & Ewees, Ahmed A., 2023. "TLIA: Time-series forecasting model using long short-term memory integrated with artificial neural networks for volatile energy markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 343(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:254:y:2022:i:pa:s0360544222011860. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.