IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v37y2009i4p1239-1248.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A fuzzy inference model for short-term load forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Mamlook, Rustum
  • Badran, Omar
  • Abdulhadi, Emad

Abstract

This paper is concerned with the short-term load forecasting (STLF) in power system operations. It provides load prediction for generation scheduling and unit commitment decisions, and therefore precise load forecasting plays an important role in reducing the generation cost and the spinning reserve capacity. Short-term electricity demand forecasting (i.e., the prediction of hourly loads (demand)) is one of the most important tools by which an electric utility/company plans, dispatches the loading of generating units in order to meet system demand. The accuracy of the dispatching system, which is derived from the accuracy of the forecasting algorithm used, will determine the economics of the operation of the power system. The inaccuracy or large error in the forecast simply means that load matching is not optimized and consequently the generation and transmission systems are not being operated in an efficient manner. In the present study, a proposed methodology has been introduced to decrease the forecasted error and the processing time by using fuzzy logic controller on an hourly base. Therefore, it predicts the effect of different conditional parameters (i.e., weather, time, historical data, and random disturbances) on load forecasting in terms of fuzzy sets during the generation process. These parameters are chosen with respect to their priority and importance. The forecasted values obtained by fuzzy method were compared with the conventionally forecasted ones. The results showed that the STLF of the fuzzy implementation have more accuracy and better outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Mamlook, Rustum & Badran, Omar & Abdulhadi, Emad, 2009. "A fuzzy inference model for short-term load forecasting," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1239-1248, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:37:y:2009:i:4:p:1239-1248
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301-4215(08)00656-3
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. AfDB AfDB, . "AfDB Group Annual Report 2005," Annual Report, African Development Bank, number 61 edited by Koua Louis Kouakou.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Diamandis, Panayiotis F., 2008. "Financial liberalization and changes in the dynamic behaviour of emerging market volatility: Evidence from four Latin American equity markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 362-377, September.
    2. Adewumi, Matthew Olaniyi & Animashaun, Jubril Olayinka, 2013. "Households’ Dietary Diversity, Farm Income and Technical Efficiency Correlates: Empirical Evidence from Small-scale Farming Households in Nigeria," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 5(4), pages 1-9, December.
    3. Diamandis, Panayiotis F., 2009. "International stock market linkages: Evidence from Latin America," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 13-30.
    4. Barraclough, Simon & Morrow, Martha, 2008. "A grim contradiction: The practice and consequences of corporate social responsibility by British American Tobacco in Malaysia," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 66(8), pages 1784-1796, April.
    5. Ntim, Collins G. & Lindop, Sarah & Thomas, Dennis A., 2013. "Corporate governance and risk reporting in South Africa: A study of corporate risk disclosures in the pre- and post-2007/2008 global financial crisis periods," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 363-383.
    6. Hyun, Junghwan, 2016. "Financial crises and the evolution of credit reallocation: Evidence from Korea," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 25-34.
    7. Kayande, U. & de Bruyn, A. & Lilien, G.L. & Rangaswamy, A. & van Bruggen, G.H., 2006. "How Feedback Can Improve Managerial Evaluations of Model-based Marketing Decision Support Systems," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2006-039-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    8. Conti, Annamaria & Gaule, Patrick, 2011. "Is the US outperforming Europe in university technology licensing? A new perspective on the European Paradox," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 123-135, February.
    9. Byron Lutz, 2011. "The End of Court-Ordered Desegregation," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 130-168, May.
    10. Caner TaskIn, Z. & Tamer Ünal, A., 2009. "Tactical level planning in float glass manufacturing with co-production, random yields and substitutable products," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 199(1), pages 252-261, November.
    11. Collins Ntim, 2015. "Board diversity and organizational valuation: unravelling the effects of ethnicity and gender," Journal of Management & Governance, Springer;Accademia Italiana di Economia Aziendale (AIDEA), vol. 19(1), pages 167-195, February.
    12. Jaffee, Dwight M. & Quigley, John M., 2007. "Housing Subsidies and Homeowners: What Role for Government-Sponsored Enterprises?," Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy, Working Paper Series qt6g8986r5, Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy.
    13. repec:ilo:ilowps:457681 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Robert Holzmann & Ufuk Guven, 2009. "Adequacy of Retirement Income after Pension Reforms in Central, Eastern, and Southern Europe : Eight Country Studies," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2610, December.
    15. Akter, R. & Bashar, M.A & Majumder, M.K & Shashid, Sonia B., 2010. "Effect of Community Based Organization microcredit on livelihood improvement," Journal of the Bangladesh Agricultural University, Bangladesh Agricultural University Research System (BAURES), vol. 8.
    16. Talens Peiró, L. & Villalba Méndez, G. & Sciubba, E. & Gabarrell i Durany, X., 2010. "Extended exergy accounting applied to biodiesel production," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 2861-2869.
    17. Christos Triantopoulos, 2014. "Financial Structure, Income Inequality and Privatization of Risk in the EU," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 64(3), pages 49-72, July-Sept.
    18. Ming- chin Monique Chu, 2013. "Semiconductor interconnectivity across the Taiwan Strait: a case study approach," Chapters, in: Peter C.Y. Chow (ed.), Economic Integration Across the Taiwan Strait, chapter 9, pages 197-238, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    19. Izabela Luiza POP & Anca BORZA, 2014. "Increasing the Sustainability of Museums through International Strategy," Economia. Seria Management, Faculty of Management, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 17(2), pages 248-264, December.
    20. Abraham, Santhosh & Shrives, Philip J., 2014. "Improving the relevance of risk factor disclosure in corporate annual reports," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 91-107.
    21. Philip Linsley & Richard Slack, 2013. "Crisis Management and an Ethic of Care: The Case of Northern Rock Bank," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 113(2), pages 285-295, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:37:y:2009:i:4:p:1239-1248. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.