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Carbon overhead: The impact of the expansion in low-carbon electricity in China 2015–2040

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  • Yuan, Rong
  • Behrens, Paul
  • Tukker, Arnold
  • Rodrigues, João F.D.

Abstract

China has embarked on a massive program of low-carbon electricity (LE) deployment, in order to reduce its current dependence on coal. The cumulative installed capacity of LE in 2015 was almost four times of that in 2002. Moreover, China has a target of 20% for non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption by 2030. LE provides substantial carbon savings in the use phase, but LE infrastructure tends to require more materials than their fossil-fuel electricity counterpart. Here we estimate the carbon ‘overhead’ from infrastructure expansion during China's transition to LE. We report estimates of the learning curves of the carbon intensity of LE installation, calculated from regional historical data in the period 2002–2012. We combine this information with the predicted cumulative installed capacity from well-known scenarios from national and international bodies. We then project the trends of carbon impacts from LE investments up to 2040. Our results show that, under all scenarios and every year, the annual carbon impact of LE investments never exceeds 4% of China's total carbon emissions, and that the carbon impacts of the expansion in LE infrastructure show either a steady decline or a peak during 2030–2035 before declining further.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuan, Rong & Behrens, Paul & Tukker, Arnold & Rodrigues, João F.D., 2018. "Carbon overhead: The impact of the expansion in low-carbon electricity in China 2015–2040," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 97-104.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:119:y:2018:i:c:p:97-104
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2018.04.027
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    Cited by:

    1. Jiang, Jingjing & Ye, Bin & Liu, Junguo, 2019. "Peak of CO2 emissions in various sectors and provinces of China: Recent progress and avenues for further research," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 813-833.
    2. Hahn Menacho, A.J. & Rodrigues, J.F.D. & Behrens, P., 2022. "A triple bottom line assessment of concentrated solar power generation in China and Europe 2020–2050," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    3. Xiang, Yue & Wu, Gang & Shen, Xiaodong & Ma, Yuhang & Gou, Jing & Xu, Weiting & Liu, Junyong, 2021. "Low-carbon economic dispatch of electricity-gas systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    4. Yanlin Yue & Zheng Wang & Li Tian & Jincai Zhao & Zhizhu Lai & Guangxing Ji & Haibin Xia, 2020. "Modeling the spatiotemporal dynamics of industrial sulfur dioxide emissions in China based on DMSP-OLS nighttime stable light data," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(9), pages 1-20, September.
    5. Zhang, Yiyi & Wang, Jiaqi & Zhang, Linmei & Liu, Jiefeng & Zheng, Hanbo & Fang, Jiake & Hou, Shengren & Chen, Shaoqing, 2020. "Optimization of China’s electric power sector targeting water stress and carbon emissions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 271(C).
    6. Thomassen, Gwenny & Van Passel, Steven & Dewulf, Jo, 2020. "A review on learning effects in prospective technology assessment," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    7. Yuan, Rong & Rodrigues, João F.D. & Tukker, Arnold & Behrens, Paul, 2018. "The impact of the expansion in non-fossil electricity infrastructure on China’s carbon emissions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 1994-2008.

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