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Policy recommendations for a transition to sustainable mobility based on historical diffusion dynamics of transport systems

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  • Leibowicz, Benjamin D.

Abstract

Emerging transportation technologies have the potential to surmount carbon lock-in and enable a transition to environmentally sustainable mobility. Promising options include biofuels; hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and battery electric vehicles; hydrogen fuel cell vehicles; maglev trains; and the Hyperloop. To varying degrees, widespread adoption of these technologies is complicated by the chicken-and-egg problem of infrastructure provision. Consumers are unlikely to adopt a technology in the absence of supporting infrastructure, but infrastructure provision is unprofitable without a critical mass of adopters. To derive policy recommendations for overcoming this problem, this study analyzes historical data on the diffusion dynamics of transport systems in the United States. The methodology systematically compares the relative timing of diffusion processes for infrastructure, vehicles, and travel. A striking regularity observed across transport systems is that the diffusion of infrastructure precedes the adoption of vehicles, which precedes the expansion of travel. On the chicken-and-egg conundrum, findings thus support the view that infrastructure comes first. The analysis leads to three salient policy recommendations: support adequate infrastructure provision early in the technology life cycle, target suitable niche markets to maximize the impact of infrastructure investment, and leverage distributed technologies to reduce overall infrastructure requirements.

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  • Leibowicz, Benjamin D., 2018. "Policy recommendations for a transition to sustainable mobility based on historical diffusion dynamics of transport systems," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 357-366.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:119:y:2018:i:c:p:357-366
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2018.04.066
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    Cited by:

    1. Oindrila Dey & Debalina Chakravarty, 2020. "Electric Street Car as a Clean Public Transport Alternative: A Choice Experiment Approach," Working Papers 2042, Indian Institute of Foreign Trade.
    2. Espinosa Valderrama, Mónica & Cadena Monroy, Ángela Inés & Behrentz Valencia, Eduardo, 2019. "Challenges in greenhouse gas mitigation in developing countries: A case study of the Colombian transport sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 111-122.
    3. Brozynski, Max T. & Leibowicz, Benjamin D., 2022. "A multi-level optimization model of infrastructure-dependent technology adoption: Overcoming the chicken-and-egg problem," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 300(2), pages 755-770.
    4. Trencher, Gregory & Taeihagh, Araz & Yarime, Masaru, 2020. "Overcoming barriers to developing and diffusing fuel-cell vehicles: Governance strategies and experiences in Japan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    5. Brito, Thiago Luis Felipe & Islam, Towhidul & Stettler, Marc & Mouette, Dominique & Meade, Nigel & Moutinho dos Santos, Edmilson, 2019. "Transitions between technological generations of alternative fuel vehicles in Brazil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    6. Shoshanna Saxe & Dena Kasraian, 2020. "Rethinking environmental LCA life stages for transport infrastructure to facilitate holistic assessment," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 24(5), pages 1031-1046, October.
    7. Mäkitie, Tuukka & Hanson, Jens & Steen, Markus & Hansen, Teis & Andersen, Allan Dahl, 2022. "Complementarity formation mechanisms in technology value chains," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(7).
    8. Rodrigues Teixeira, Ana Carolina & Machado, Pedro Gerber & Borges, Raquel Rocha & Felipe Brito, Thiago Luis & Moutinho dos Santos, Edmilson & Mouette, Dominique, 2021. "The use of liquefied natural gas as an alternative fuel in freight transport – Evidence from a driver's point of view," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    9. Chan, Lok Shun, 2023. "Transition from fossil fuel propelled transport to electrified mass transit railway system - Experience from Hong Kong," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    10. Gregory Trencher & Achmed Edianto, 2021. "Drivers and Barriers to the Adoption of Fuel Cell Passenger Vehicles and Buses in Germany," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-26, February.
    11. Vallera, A.M. & Nunes, P.M. & Brito, M.C., 2021. "Why we need battery swapping technology," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    12. Yun Chen & Da Wang & Wenxi Zhu & Yunfei Hou & Dingli Liu & Chongsen Ma & Tian Li & Yuan Yuan, 2023. "Effective Conditions for Achieving Carbon Unlocking Targets for Transport Infrastructure Development—Joint Analysis Based on PLS-SEM and NCA," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(2), pages 1-22, January.
    13. Tian Zhao & Zhixin Liu, 2023. "Investment Timing Analysis of Hydrogen-Refueling Stations and the Case of China: Independent or Co-Operative Investment?," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(13), pages 1-17, June.
    14. Hasselwander, Marc & Bigotte, Joao F. & Antunes, Antonio P. & Sigua, Ricardo G., 2022. "Towards sustainable transport in developing countries: Preliminary findings on the demand for mobility-as-a-service (MaaS) in Metro Manila," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 501-518.
    15. Li, Yanfei & Chang, Youngho, 2019. "Road transport electrification and energy security in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations: Quantitative analysis and policy implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 805-815.

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