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Timing the investment grade securities market: Evidence from high quality bond funds

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  • Boney, Vaneesha
  • Comer, George
  • Kelly, Lynne
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    Abstract

    We examine the ability of bond fund managers to shift assets between bonds and cash and across bonds of different maturities in order to capture the changes in their relative returns. As measured by estimated changes in portfolio allocations, we find strong evidence of perverse market timing ability between cash and investment grade securities, and our results indicate additional perverse timing across the bond maturity spectrum. Results are robust to an alternative performance metric. We present evidence that the survival of the majority of these funds despite their negative performance may reflect the value investors place on the portfolio diversification benefits of holding these funds.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Empirical Finance.

    Volume (Year): 16 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 1 (January)
    Pages: 55-69

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:16:y:2009:i:1:p:55-69

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jempfin

    Related research

    Keywords: Portfolio evaluation Fixed income funds Market timing;

    References

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    1. Glassman, Debra A. & Riddick, Leigh A., 2006. "Market timing by global fund managers," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(7), pages 1029-1050, November.
    2. George Comer, 2006. "Hybrid Mutual Funds and Market Timing Performance," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(2), pages 771-798, March.
    3. Matthew R. Morey & Edward S. O'Neal, 2006. "Window Dressing In Bond Mutual Funds," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 29(3), pages 325-347.
    4. Goetzmann, William N. & Ingersoll, Jonathan & Ivković, Zoran, 2000. "Monthly Measurement of Daily Timers," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(03), pages 257-290, September.
    5. Grinblatt, Mark & Titman, Sheridan D, 1989. "Mutual Fund Performance: An Analysis of Quarterly Portfolio Holdings," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(3), pages 393-416, July.
    6. Mark M. Carhart & Jennifer N. Carpenter & Anthony W. Lynch & David K. Musto, 2002. "Mutual Fund Survivorship," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(5), pages 1439-1463.
    7. Elton, Edwin J & Gruber, Martin J & Blake, Christopher R, 1995. " Fundamental Economic Variables, Expected Returns, and Bond Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1229-56, September.
    8. Fung, William & Hsieh, David A, 1997. "Empirical Characteristics of Dynamic Trading Strategies: The Case of Hedge Funds," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(2), pages 275-302.
    9. Jennifer Koski & Jeffrey Pontiff, 1996. "How Are Derivatives Used? Evidence from the Mutual Fund Industry," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 96-27, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
    10. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. " On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    11. Ferson, Wayne E & Schadt, Rudi W, 1996. " Measuring Fund Strategy and Performance in Changing Economic Conditions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(2), pages 425-61, June.
    12. Brown, Keith C & Harlow, W V & Starks, Laura T, 1996. " Of Tournaments and Temptations: An Analysis of Managerial Incentives in the Mutual Fund Industry," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 85-110, March.
    13. Blake, Christopher R & Elton, Edwin J & Gruber, Martin J, 1993. "The Performance of Bond Mutual Funds," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66(3), pages 370-403, July.
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    Cited by:
    1. George Comer & Javier Rodriguez, 2013. "A comparison of corporate versus government bond funds," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 37(4), pages 495-510, October.
    2. Herrmann, Ulf & Scholz, Hendrik, 2013. "Short-term persistence in hybrid mutual fund performance: The role of style-shifting abilities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2314-2328.
    3. Laura Andreu & Laurens Swinkels, 2012. "Performance evaluation of balanced pension plans," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(5), pages 819-830, March.
    4. Chen, Yong & Ferson, Wayne & Peters, Helen, 2010. "Measuring the timing ability and performance of bond mutual funds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(1), pages 72-89, October.
    5. Yong Chen & Wayne Ferson & Helen Peters, 2009. "Measuring the Timing Ability and Performance of Bond Mutual Funds," NBER Working Papers 15318, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Lipton, Amy F. & Kish, Richard J., 2010. "Robust performance measures for high yield bond funds," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 332-340, August.
    7. Ayadi, Mohamed A. & Kryzanowski, Lawrence, 2011. "Fixed-income fund performance: Role of luck and ability in tail membership," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 379-392, June.

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