IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecomod/v299y2015icp79-94.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Mathematical modelling of seasonal migration with applications to climate change

Author

Listed:
  • Donohue, John G.
  • Piiroinen, Petri T.

Abstract

The breeding success of many species depends on the alignment of the period of maximum demand of offspring with a period of food abundance. In this paper, we use piecewise-smooth differential equations to model the variation in the size of a population that has a short interval each year during which successful reproduction is possible. An increase in spring-time temperatures in recent decades has caused these intervals to advance, leading to temporal mismatches between species on different trophic levels. We first consider a one-species model which illustrates the dynamics of a population of specialist feeders over the course of a single breeding season and use it to examine how reproductive success depends on the population's distribution of breeding dates. We then introduce time-dependent switches to extend the model to a broader class of species. Steady-state solutions are used to measure the extent to which a migratory population can sustain itself over long time scales and repeated breeding events. The model's predictions agree with the observed negative effect on population size associated with an advance in the food season if not adequately compensated for by the population. Finally, we discuss how this model can be extended in order to encompass a wider range of ecological systems and to highlight the mechanisms over which climate change may exert an influence.

Suggested Citation

  • Donohue, John G. & Piiroinen, Petri T., 2015. "Mathematical modelling of seasonal migration with applications to climate change," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 299(C), pages 79-94.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:299:y:2015:i:c:p:79-94
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2014.12.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380014006097
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2014.12.003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ian R. Stevenson & David M. Bryant, 2000. "Climate change and constraints on breeding," Nature, Nature, vol. 406(6794), pages 366-367, July.
    2. Christiaan Both & Marcel E. Visser, 2001. "Adjustment to climate change is constrained by arrival date in a long-distance migrant bird," Nature, Nature, vol. 411(6835), pages 296-298, May.
    3. Christiaan Both & Sandra Bouwhuis & C. M. Lessells & Marcel E. Visser, 2006. "Climate change and population declines in a long-distance migratory bird," Nature, Nature, vol. 441(7089), pages 81-83, May.
    4. Gian-Reto Walther & Eric Post & Peter Convey & Annette Menzel & Camille Parmesan & Trevor J. C. Beebee & Jean-Marc Fromentin & Ove Hoegh-Guldberg & Franz Bairlein, 2002. "Ecological responses to recent climate change," Nature, Nature, vol. 416(6879), pages 389-395, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Aagaard, Kevin J. & Thogmartin, Wayne E. & Lonsdorf, Eric V., 2018. "Temperature-influenced energetics model for migrating waterfowl," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 378(C), pages 46-58.
    2. Anne Goodenough & Adam Hart, 2013. "Correlates of vulnerability to climate-induced distribution changes in European avifauna: habitat, migration and endemism," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(3), pages 659-669, June.
    3. Christopher C Wilmers & Wayne M Getz, 2005. "Gray Wolves as Climate Change Buffers in Yellowstone," PLOS Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 3(4), pages 1-1, March.
    4. Lucie Kuczynski & Mathieu Chevalier & Pascal Laffaille & Marion Legrand & Gaël Grenouillet, 2017. "Indirect effect of temperature on fish population abundances through phenological changes," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(4), pages 1-13, April.
    5. Conor C. Taff & J. Ryan. Shipley, 2023. "Inconsistent shifts in warming and temperature variability are linked to reduced avian fitness," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.
    6. Z. Macháček & S. Dvořák & M. Ježek & D. Zahradník, 2014. "Impact of interspecific relations between native red deer (Cervus elaphus) and introduced sika deer (Cervus nippon) on their rutting season in the Doupovské hory Mts," Journal of Forest Science, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 60(7), pages 272-280.
    7. Mayeul Dalleau & Stéphane Ciccione & Jeanne A Mortimer & Julie Garnier & Simon Benhamou & Jérôme Bourjea, 2012. "Nesting Phenology of Marine Turtles: Insights from a Regional Comparative Analysis on Green Turtle (Chelonia mydas)," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(10), pages 1-13, October.
    8. Bu, Lingduo & Chen, Xinping & Li, Shiqing & Liu, Jianliang & Zhu, Lin & Luo, Shasha & Lee Hill, Robert & Zhao, Ying, 2015. "The effect of adapting cultivars on the water use efficiency of dryland maize (Zea mays L.) in northwestern China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 1-9.
    9. Monika Punia & Suman Nain & Amit Kumar & Bhupendra Singh & Amit Prakash & Krishan Kumar & V. Jain, 2015. "Analysis of temperature variability over north-west part of India for the period 1970–2000," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(1), pages 935-952, January.
    10. Wesley R. Brooks & Stephen C. Newbold, 2013. "Ecosystem damages in integrated assessment models of climate change," NCEE Working Paper Series 201302, National Center for Environmental Economics, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, revised Mar 2013.
    11. Nicoletta Cannone & M. Guglielmin & P. Convey & M. R. Worland & S. E. Favero Longo, 2016. "Vascular plant changes in extreme environments: effects of multiple drivers," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(4), pages 651-665, February.
    12. Campos, Daniel & Llebot, Josep E. & Méndez, Vicenç, 2008. "Limited resources and evolutionary learning may help to understand the mistimed reproduction in birds caused by climate change," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 16-21.
    13. Groeneveld, Jürgen & Johst, Karin & Kawaguchi, So & Meyer, Bettina & Teschke, Mathias & Grimm, Volker, 2015. "How biological clocks and changing environmental conditions determine local population growth and species distribution in Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba): a conceptual model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 303(C), pages 78-86.
    14. Norman Myers, 2003. "Conservation of Biodiversity: How Are We Doing?," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 9-15, March.
    15. John H Matthews & Bart AJ Wickel & Sarah Freeman, 2011. "Converging Currents in Climate-Relevant Conservation: Water, Infrastructure, and Institutions," PLOS Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(9), pages 1-4, September.
    16. Feng, Zhiying & Tang, Wenhu & Niu, Zhewen & Wu, Qinghua, 2018. "Bi-level allocation of carbon emission permits based on clustering analysis and weighted voting: A case study in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 1122-1135.
    17. Feng Dong & Chih-Ming Hung & Shou-Hsien Li & Xiao-Jun Yang, 2021. "Potential Himalayan community turnover through the Late Pleistocene," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 164(1), pages 1-10, January.
    18. Ding, Helen & Nunes, Paulo A.L.D., 2014. "Modeling the links between biodiversity, ecosystem services and human wellbeing in the context of climate change: Results from an econometric analysis of the European forest ecosystems," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 60-73.
    19. Chan, Nathan & Wichman, Casey, 2017. "The Effects of Climate on Leisure Demand: Evidence from North America," RFF Working Paper Series 17-20, Resources for the Future.
    20. Zhang, Jiarui & Jørgensen, Sven E. & Lu, Jianjian & Nielsen, Søren N. & Wang, Qiang, 2014. "A model for the contribution of macrophyte-derived organic carbon in harvested tidal freshwater marshes to surrounding estuarine and oceanic ecosystems and its response to global warming," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 294(C), pages 105-116.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:299:y:2015:i:c:p:79-94. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/ecological-modelling .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.