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Model averaging with averaging covariance matrix

Author

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  • Zhao, Shangwei
  • Zhang, Xinyu
  • Gao, Yichen

Abstract

This article studies optimal model averaging for linear models with heteroscedasticity. We choose weights by minimizing Mallows-type criterion. Because the covariance matrix of random error in the criterion is unknown, an averaging estimator of covariance matrix is plugged into the criterion. The resulting model averaging estimator is proved to be asymptotically optimal under some regularity conditions. Simulation experiments show that the proposed model averaging method is superior to its competitors.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhao, Shangwei & Zhang, Xinyu & Gao, Yichen, 2016. "Model averaging with averaging covariance matrix," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 214-217.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:145:y:2016:i:c:p:214-217
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2016.06.011
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Xie, Tian, 2015. "Prediction model averaging estimator," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 5-8.
    2. Qingfeng Liu & Ryo Okui, 2013. "Heteroscedasticity‐robust C(p) model averaging," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 16(3), pages 463-472, October.
    3. Andrews, Donald W. K., 1991. "Asymptotic optimality of generalized CL, cross-validation, and generalized cross-validation in regression with heteroskedastic errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2-3), pages 359-377, February.
    4. Zhang, Xinyu & Wan, Alan T.K. & Zou, Guohua, 2013. "Model averaging by jackknife criterion in models with dependent data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 174(2), pages 82-94.
    5. Wan, Alan T.K. & Zhang, Xinyu & Zou, Guohua, 2010. "Least squares model averaging by Mallows criterion," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 156(2), pages 277-283, June.
    6. Hansen, Bruce E. & Racine, Jeffrey S., 2012. "Jackknife model averaging," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 167(1), pages 38-46.
    7. Liang, Hua & Zou, Guohua & Wan, Alan T. K. & Zhang, Xinyu, 2011. "Optimal Weight Choice for Frequentist Model Average Estimators," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 106(495), pages 1053-1066.
    8. Bruce E. Hansen, 2007. "Least Squares Model Averaging," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(4), pages 1175-1189, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Zhao, Shangwei & Zhou, Jianhong & Li, Hongjun, 2016. "Model averaging with high-dimensional dependent data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 68-71.
    2. Qiu, Yue & Wang, Zongrun & Xie, Tian & Zhang, Xinyu, 2021. "Forecasting Bitcoin realized volatility by exploiting measurement error under model uncertainty," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 179-201.
    3. Tian Xie, 2019. "Forecast Bitcoin Volatility with Least Squares Model Averaging," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-20, September.
    4. Yuan, Chaoxia & Fang, Fang & Ni, Lyu, 2022. "Mallows model averaging with effective model size in fragmentary data prediction," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    5. Rongjie Jiang & Liming Wang & Yang Bai, 2021. "Optimal model averaging estimator for semi-functional partially linear models," Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Springer, vol. 84(2), pages 167-194, February.
    6. Liao, Jun & Zou, Guohua, 2020. "Corrected Mallows criterion for model averaging," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    7. Xie, Tian, 2017. "Heteroscedasticity-robust model screening: A useful toolkit for model averaging in big data analytics," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 119-122.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asymptotic optimality; Heteroscedasticity; Model averaging;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General

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