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Jackknife model averaging

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Author Info

  • Hansen, Bruce E.
  • Racine, Jeffrey S.

Abstract

We consider the problem of obtaining appropriate weights for averaging M approximate (misspecified) models for improved estimation of an unknown conditional mean in the face of non-nested model uncertainty in heteroskedastic error settings. We propose a “jackknife model averaging” (JMA) estimator which selects the weights by minimizing a cross-validation criterion. This criterion is quadratic in the weights, so computation is a simple application of quadratic programming. We show that our estimator is asymptotically optimal in the sense of achieving the lowest possible expected squared error. Monte Carlo simulations and an illustrative application show that JMA can achieve significant efficiency gains over existing model selection and averaging methods in the presence of heteroskedasticity.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 167 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 38-46

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Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:167:y:2012:i:1:p:38-46

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom

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References

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  1. Andrews, Donald W. K., 1991. "Asymptotic optimality of generalized CL, cross-validation, and generalized cross-validation in regression with heteroskedastic errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2-3), pages 359-377, February.
  2. Bruce E. Hansen, 2007. "Least Squares Model Averaging," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(4), pages 1175-1189, 07.
  3. Wan, Alan T.K. & Zhang, Xinyu & Zou, Guohua, 2010. "Least squares model averaging by Mallows criterion," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 156(2), pages 277-283, June.
  4. Yang Y., 2001. "Adaptive Regression by Mixing," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 574-588, June.
  5. Racine, Jeff & Li, Qi, 2004. "Nonparametric estimation of regression functions with both categorical and continuous data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 99-130, March.
  6. Racine, Jeff, 1997. "Feasible Cross-Validatory Model Selection for General Stationary Processes," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 169-79, March-Apr.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Wan, Alan T.K. & Zhang, Xinyu & Wang, Shouyang, 2014. "Frequentist model averaging for multinomial and ordered logit models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 118-128.
  2. Xu Cheng & Bruce E. Hansen, 2012. "Forecasting with Factor-Augmented Regression: A Frequentist Model Averaging Approach, Second Version," PIER Working Paper Archive 13-061, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 03 Sep 2013.
  3. Zhang, Xinyu & Lu, Zudi & Zou, Guohua, 2013. "Adaptively combined forecasting for discrete response time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 176(1), pages 80-91.
  4. Moral-Benito, Enrique, 2010. "Model averaging in economics," MPRA Paper 26047, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Liu, Chu-An, 2012. "A plug-in averaging estimator for regressions with heteroskedastic errors," MPRA Paper 41414, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Liu, Qingfeng, 2011. "Generalized Cp Model Averaging for Heteroskedastic Models," ビジネス創造センターディスカッション・ペーパー (Discussion papers of the Center for Business Creation) 10252/4544, Otaru University of Commerce.
  7. Hansen, Bruce E., 2010. "Averaging estimators for autoregressions with a near unit root," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 142-155, September.
  8. Schomaker, Michael & Heumann, Christian, 2014. "Model selection and model averaging after multiple imputation," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 758-770.
  9. Tian Xie, 2012. "Least Squares Model Averaging by Prediction Criterion," Working Papers 1299, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  10. Branko Urošević & Milan Nedeljković & Emir Zildžović, 2012. "Jackknife Model Averaging of the Current Account Determinants," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 59(3), pages 267-281, June.
  11. Martins, Luis F. & Gabriel, Vasco J., 2014. "Linear instrumental variables model averaging estimation," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 709-724.
  12. Milan Nedeljkovic & Branko Uroševic & Emir Zildžovic, 2012. "Jackknife Model Averaging of the Current Account Determinants," Working papers 23, National Bank of Serbia.
  13. Xu Cheng & Bruce E. Hansen, 2012. "Forecasting with Factor-Augmented Regression: A Frequentist Model Averaging Approach," PIER Working Paper Archive 12-046, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  14. Herrera Gómez, Marcos & Mur Lacambra, Jesús & Ruiz Marín, Manuel, 2011. "¿Cuál matriz de pesos espaciales?. Un enfoque sobre selección de modelos
    [Which spatial weighting matrix? An approach for model selection]
    ," MPRA Paper 37585, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  15. Jesus Mur & Marcos Herrera & Manuel Ruiz, 2011. "Selecting the W Matrix. Parametric vs Nonparametric Approaches," ERSA conference papers ersa11p1055, European Regional Science Association.
  16. Jesus Mur & Antonio Paez, 2011. "Local weighting or the necessity of flexibility," ERSA conference papers ersa11p942, European Regional Science Association.
  17. Zhang, Xinyu & Wan, Alan T.K. & Zou, Guohua, 2013. "Model averaging by jackknife criterion in models with dependent data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 174(2), pages 82-94.
  18. Michael Schomaker, 2012. "Shrinkage averaging estimation," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 1015-1034, November.

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