IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecolet/v126y2015icp114-118.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Asymmetric over- and undershooting of major exchange rates: Evidence from quantile regressions

Author

Listed:
  • Kuck, Konstantin
  • Maderitsch, Robert
  • Schweikert, Karsten

Abstract

This paper uses quantile regression techniques to investigate the temporal dependence patterns of major exchange rates around the globe. Specifically, we estimate quantile autoregressive models for daily exchange rate returns of the USD/EUR, USD/JPY, USD/GBP, USD/AUD, USD/CHF and USD/CAD exchange rates between 1999 and 2014. Testing for the equality of cross-quantile-effects, we reveal substantial state-dependence in the return dynamics. In particular, we find that large US dollar appreciations tend to exhibit positive dependence on past returns, whereas large US dollar depreciations tend to exhibit negative dependence on past returns. Around central return quantiles, however, there is virtually no evidence for significant temporal dependence. Exceptions from this pattern are only apparent for the USD/JPY and the USD/CHF exchange rate. Theoretically, our results point to the presence of over- and undershooting in terms of asymmetric exchange rate adjustment to previous day information.

Suggested Citation

  • Kuck, Konstantin & Maderitsch, Robert & Schweikert, Karsten, 2015. "Asymmetric over- and undershooting of major exchange rates: Evidence from quantile regressions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 114-118.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:126:y:2015:i:c:p:114-118
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2014.11.028
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165176514004558
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econlet.2014.11.028?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Koenker, Roger & Xiao, Zhijie, 2006. "Quantile Autoregression," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 101, pages 980-990, September.
    2. Bera Anil K. & Galvao Antonio F. & Wang Liang, 2014. "On Testing the Equality of Mean and Quantile Effects," Journal of Econometric Methods, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 47-62, January.
    3. Frenkel, Jacob A. & Rodriguez, Carlos A., 1980. "Exchange Rate Dynamics and Overshooting Hypothesis," Foerder Institute for Economic Research Working Papers 275323, Tel-Aviv University > Foerder Institute for Economic Research.
    4. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
    5. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Stefan Nagel & Lasse H. Pedersen, 2009. "Carry Trades and Currency Crashes," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2008, Volume 23, pages 313-347, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Baur, Dirk G., 2013. "The structure and degree of dependence: A quantile regression approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 786-798.
    7. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bošnjak Mile & Novak Ivan & Vlajčić Davor, 2021. "Market Efficiency of Euro Exchange Rates and Trading Strategies," Naše gospodarstvo/Our economy, Sciendo, vol. 67(2), pages 10-19, June.
    2. Jiang, Yong & Ren, Yi-Shuai & Narayan, Seema & Ma, Chao-Qun & Yang, Xiao-Guang, 2022. "Heterogeneity dependence between oil prices and exchange rate: Evidence from a parametric test of Granger causality in quantiles," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    3. Kuck, Konstantin & Maderitsch, Robert, 2019. "Intra-day dynamics of exchange rates: New evidence from quantile regression," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 247-257.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Robert Maderitsch, 2015. "Spillovers from the USA to stock markets in Asia: a quantile regression approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(44), pages 4714-4727, September.
    2. Feipeng Zhang & Yun Hong & Yanhui Jiang & Jiayi Yu, 2022. "Impact of national media reporting concerning COVID-19 on stock market in China: empirical evidence from a quantile regression," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(33), pages 3861-3881, July.
    3. Kuck, Konstantin & Maderitsch, Robert, 2019. "Intra-day dynamics of exchange rates: New evidence from quantile regression," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 247-257.
    4. Geoffrey M. Ngene & Catherine Anitha Manohar & Ivan F. Julio, 2020. "Overreaction in the REITs Market: New Evidence from Quantile Autoregression Approach," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-28, November.
    5. Libo Yin & Jing Nie & Liyan Han, 2021. "Intermediary capital risk and commodity futures volatility," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(5), pages 577-640, May.
    6. Bošnjak Mile & Novak Ivan & Vlajčić Davor, 2021. "Market Efficiency of Euro Exchange Rates and Trading Strategies," Naše gospodarstvo/Our economy, Sciendo, vol. 67(2), pages 10-19, June.
    7. Guo, Peng & Zhu, Huiming & You, Wanhai, 2018. "Asymmetric dependence between economic policy uncertainty and stock market returns in G7 and BRIC: A quantile regression approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 251-258.
    8. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Bannigidadmath, Deepa & Narayan, Seema, 2021. "How much does economic news influence bilateral exchange rates?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    9. Lili Li & Shan Leng & Jun Yang & Mei Yu, 2016. "Stock Market Autoregressive Dynamics: A Multinational Comparative Study with Quantile Regression," Mathematical Problems in Engineering, Hindawi, vol. 2016, pages 1-15, September.
    10. Anella Munro, 2014. "Exchange rates, expected returns and risk," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2014/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    11. Kleopatra Nikolaou, 2007. "The behaviour of the real exchange rate: Evidence from regression quantiles," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 46, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    12. Ye, Wuyi & Luo, Kebing & Liu, Xiaoquan, 2017. "Time-varying quantile association regression model with applications to financial contagion and VaR," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 256(3), pages 1015-1028.
    13. Agbeyegbe, Terence D., 2015. "An inverted U-shaped crude oil price return-implied volatility relationship," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 28-45.
    14. Gabriel Montes-Rojas & Lucas Siga & Ram Mainali, 2017. "Mean and quantile regression Oaxaca-Blinder decompositions with an application to caste discrimination," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 15(3), pages 245-255, September.
    15. Christian Bauer & Sebastian Weber, 2016. "The Efficiency of Monetary Policy when Guiding Inflation Expectations," Research Papers in Economics 2016-14, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
    16. Dimic, Nebojsa & Piljak, Vanja & Swinkels, Laurens & Vulanovic, Milos, 2021. "The structure and degree of dependence in government bond markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    17. Chowdhury, Biplob & Jeyasreedharan, Nagaratnam & Dungey, Mardi, 2018. "Quantile relationships between standard, diffusion and jump betas across Japanese banks," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 29-47.
    18. Terence C. Mills, 2012. "Semi-parametric modelling of temperature records," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(2), pages 361-383, May.
    19. Bianchi, Robert J. & Fan, John Hua & Todorova, Neda, 2020. "Financialization and de-financialization of commodity futures: A quantile regression approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    20. Papell, David H., 1984. "Activist monetary policy and exchange-rate overshooting: The Deutsche mark/dollar rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 293-310, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Informational efficiency; Quantile regression; State-dependence; Foreign exchange;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:126:y:2015:i:c:p:114-118. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.