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Investor sentiment and Bitcoin relationship: A quantile-based analysis

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  • Mokni, Khaled
  • Bouteska, Ahmed
  • Nakhli, Mohamed Sahbi

Abstract

This paper applies a quantile-based analysis to investigate the causal relationships between Bitcoin and investor sentiment by considering the possible effects of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Such an analysis allows investigating the predictive power of investor sentiment (Bitcoin) on Bitcoin (investor sentiment) at different levels of the distributions. Results emphasize that only Bitcoin returns/volatility have significant predictive power on the investor sentiment whether investors are fear or greed before and over the COVID-19 period. Moreover, the COVID-19 crisis has no effect on the causal relationship between the two variables. Further analysis shows an asymmetric causality observed only during the pandemic period. Furthermore, the quantile autoregressive regression model shows a significant positive relationship between investor sentiment and Bitcoin returns.

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  • Mokni, Khaled & Bouteska, Ahmed & Nakhli, Mohamed Sahbi, 2022. "Investor sentiment and Bitcoin relationship: A quantile-based analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:60:y:2022:i:c:s1062940822000171
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2022.101657
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    7. Bouteska, Ahmed & Hajek, Petr & Abedin, Mohammad Zoynul & Dong, Yizhe, 2023. "Effect of twitter investor engagement on cryptocurrencies during the COVID-19 pandemic," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fear greed index; Bitcoin; Nonparametric causality; Quantiles; COVID-19;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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