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Volatility, employment and the patterns of FDI in emerging markets

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  • Aizenman, Joshua

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to explore the implications of the deepening presence of multinationals in emerging markets on the cost of macroeconomic volatility there. We find that macroeconomic volatility has a potentially large impact on employment and investment decisions of multinationals producing intermediate inputs in developing countries. This is the case even for risk neutral multinationals, as their profit function is non-linear due to price and productivity effects. For industries with costly capacity, the multinationals would tend to invest in the more stable emerging markets. Higher volatility of productivity shocks in an emerging market producing the intermediate inputs reduces the multinationals' expected profits. High enough instability in such a market would induce the multinationals to diversify intermediate inputs production, investing in several emerging markets. This effect is stronger in lower margin industries. We identify circumstances where this diversification is costly to emerging markets. Such a diversification increases the responsiveness of the multinationals' employment in each country to productivity shocks, channeling the average employment from the more to the less volatile location, and reducing the multinationals' total expected employment in emerging markets.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Development Economics.

Volume (Year): 72 (2003)
Issue (Month): 2 (December)
Pages: 585-601

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Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:72:y:2003:i:2:p:585-601

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  1. Kenneth A. Froot & Jeremy C. Stein, 1992. "Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment: An Imperfect Capital Markets Approach," NBER Working Papers 2914, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  5. Helpman, Elhanan, 1984. "A Simple Theory of International Trade with Multinational Corporations," Scholarly Articles 3445092, Harvard University Department of Economics.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Demir, Firat, 2013. "Growth under exchange rate volatility: Does access to foreign or domestic equity markets matter?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 74-88.
  2. Xun, Lei & Awokuse, Titus O., 2005. "The Determinants of US Outgoing FDI in the Food-Processing Sector," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19131, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  3. Joshua Aizenman & Nancy Marion, 2001. "The Merits of Horizontal versus Vertical FDI in the Presence of Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 8631, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Yang-Ming Chang & Philip Gayle, 2009. "Exports versus FDI: do firms use FDI as a mechanism to smooth demand volatility?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 145(3), pages 447-467, October.
  5. Jellal, Mohamed, 2014. "Diaspora transferts et volatilité économique
    [Diaspora transfers and economic volatility]
    ," MPRA Paper 57288, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. International Monetary Fund, 2004. "Risk Instability and the Pattern of Foreign Direct Investment in the Middle East and North Africa Region," IMF Working Papers 04/139, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Villa, Stefania, 2010. "Exploring the linkages between investment and employment in Moldova : a time-series analysis," ILO Working Papers 455342, International Labour Organization.
  8. Bhaumik, Sumon K. & Estrin, Saul & Meyer, Klaus, 2004. "Determinants of Employment Growth at MNEs: Evidence from Egypt, India, South Africa and Vietnam," IZA Discussion Papers 1272, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  9. M. Ayhan Kose & Kenneth Rogoff & Eswar Prasad & Shang-Jin Wei, 2003. "Effects of Financial Globalization on Developing Countries," IMF Occasional Papers 220, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Hefeker, Carsten & Busse, Matthias, 2005. "Political Risk, Institutions and Foreign Direct Investment," HWWA Discussion Papers 315, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
  11. Mihir A. Desai & C. Fritz Foley & James R. Hines Jr., 2004. "Capital Controls, Liberalizations, and Foreign Direct Investement," NBER Working Papers 10337, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Kenneth Rogoff & Shang-Jin Wei & Ann Harrison, . "Financial Globalization, Growth and Volatility In Developing Countries," Working Paper 14902, Harvard University OpenScholar.
  13. Brandon Julio & Youngsuk Yook, 2013. "Policy uncertainty, irreversibility, and cross-border flows of capital," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-64, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  14. Jinjarak, Yothin, 2007. "Foreign direct investment and macroeconomic risk," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 509-519, September.
  15. Desbordes, Rodolphe, 2007. "The sensitivity of U.S. multinational enterprises to political and macroeconomic uncertainty: A sectoral analysis," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 732-750, December.
  16. Kamel ABDELLAH ( GREThA, CNRS, UMR 5113 & ISG, UNIVERSITE DE TUNIS) & Dalila NICET-CHENAF (GREThA, CNRS, UMR 5113) & Eric ROUGIER (GREThA, CNRS, UMR 5113), 2012. "FDI and macroeconomic volatility: A close-up on the source countries," Cahiers du GREThA 2012-21, Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée.

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