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Measuring social unrest using media reports

Author

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  • Barrett, Philip
  • Appendino, Maximiliano
  • Nguyen, Kate
  • de Leon Miranda, Jorge

Abstract

We present a new index of social unrest based on counts of relevant media reports, covering 130 countries monthly starting in 1986. Spikes in the index identify major events, which match event timelines from external sources for four major regional waves of social unrest. We assess our index against others and show it performs as well as the next best alternative but with superior coverage. Social unrest is associated with a 3 percentage point increase in the frequency of social unrest domestically and a 1 percent increase in neighbors in the next six months. Despite this, social unrest is not a better predictor of future social unrest than the country average rate. We investigate economic performance around unrest events, showing that (1) macroeconomic performance is not robustly correlated with subsequent unrest and (2) after unrest events, positive output surprises are smaller but negative ones unchanged.

Suggested Citation

  • Barrett, Philip & Appendino, Maximiliano & Nguyen, Kate & de Leon Miranda, Jorge, 2022. "Measuring social unrest using media reports," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:158:y:2022:i:c:s0304387822000803
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2022.102924
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    1. Ghosh, Saibal, 2023. "Social unrest and corporate behaviour during the Arab Spring period," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Social unrest; Media coverage;

    JEL classification:

    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
    • F50 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - General
    • H80 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - General

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