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Robust Bayesian analysis of heavy-tailed stochastic volatility models using scale mixtures of normal distributions

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  • Abanto-Valle, C.A.
  • Bandyopadhyay, D.
  • Lachos, V.H.
  • Enriquez, I.
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    Abstract

    A Bayesian analysis of stochastic volatility (SV) models using the class of symmetric scale mixtures of normal (SMN) distributions is considered. In the face of non-normality, this provides an appealing robust alternative to the routine use of the normal distribution. Specific distributions examined include the normal, student-t, slash and the variance gamma distributions. Using a Bayesian paradigm, an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is introduced for parameter estimation. Moreover, the mixing parameters obtained as a by-product of the scale mixture representation can be used to identify outliers. The methods developed are applied to analyze daily stock returns data on S&P500 index. Bayesian model selection criteria as well as out-of-sample forecasting results reveal that the SV models based on heavy-tailed SMN distributions provide significant improvement in model fit as well as prediction to the S&P500 index data over the usual normal model.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Computational Statistics & Data Analysis.

    Volume (Year): 54 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 12 (December)
    Pages: 2883-2898

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:csdana:v:54:y:2010:i:12:p:2883-2898

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/csda

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    Cited by:
    1. Stéphane Auray & Aurélien Eyquem & Fréderic Jouneau-Sion, 2012. "Modelling Tails of Aggregated Economic Processes in a Stochastic Growth Model," Working Papers 2012-29, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
    2. Xiuping Mao & Esther Ruiz & Helena Veiga, 2013. "One for all : nesting asymmetric stochastic volatility models," Statistics and Econometrics Working Papers ws131110, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Estadística y Econometría.
    3. Joshua C.C. Chan & Angelia L. Grant, 2014. "Issues in Comparing Stochastic Volatility Models Using the Deviance Information Criterion," CAMA Working Papers 2014-51, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    4. Joshua C.C. Chan & Angelia L. Grant, 2014. "Fast Computation of the Deviance Information Criterion for Latent Variable Models," CAMA Working Papers 2014-09, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

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