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U.S. demographics and saving: Predictions of three saving models

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  • Auerbach, Alan J.
  • Cai, Jinyong
  • Kotlikoff, Laurence J.

Abstract

This paper compares the predictions of three different saving models with respect to the impact of projected U.S. demographic change on future U.S. saving rates. The three models are the life cycle model, the infinite horizon altruism model, and a reduced form econometric model. The findings for the different models indicate a great range of possible paths of future U.S. saving. However, the three models concur in predicting a peak in the U.S. national saving rate in the near future (within 15 years), followed by a significant decline in the saving rate thereafter. In fact, the findings suggest the strong possibility of negative U.S. saving rates beginning after 2030.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy.

Volume (Year): 34 (1991)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 135-156

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Handle: RePEc:eee:crcspp:v:34:y:1991:i::p:135-156

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  1. David A. Wise, 1989. "The Economics of Aging," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number wise89-1.
  2. Zeldes, Stephen P, 1989. "Consumption and Liquidity Constraints: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(2), pages 305-46, April.
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Cited by:
  1. Leon Bettendorf & Ben Heijdra, 2005. "Population Ageing and Pension Reform in a Small Open Economy with Non-Traded Goods," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-021/2, Tinbergen Institute.

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