U.S. demographics and saving: Predictions of three saving models
AbstractThis paper compares the predictions of three different saving models with respect to the impact of projected U.S. demographic change on future U.S. saving rates. The three models are the life cycle model, the infinite horizon altruism model, and a reduced form econometric model. The findings for the different models indicate a great range of possible paths of future U.S. saving. However, the three models concur in predicting a peak in the U.S. national saving rate in the near future (within 15 years), followed by a significant decline in the saving rate thereafter. In fact, the findings suggest the strong possibility of negative U.S. saving rates beginning after 2030.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy.
Volume (Year): 34 (1991)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jme
Other versions of this item:
- Alan J. Auerbach & Jinyong Cai & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1991. "U.S. Demographics and Saving: Predictions of Three Saving Models," NBER Working Papers 3404, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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