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Effect of introducing Bitcoin futures on the underlying Bitcoin market efficiency: A multifractal analysis

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  • Ruan, Qingsong
  • Meng, Lu
  • Lv, Dayong

Abstract

This paper investigates the effect of introducing Bitcoin futures on Bitcoin spot market efficiency from the perspective of multifractality. We show that, after the introduction of Bitcoin futures, the fractal characteristics of Bitcoin spot market are weakened, suggesting that introducing Bitcoin futures help enhance market efficiency of Bitcoin spot market. We further use MF-X-DMA analysis and nonlinear Granger causality test to identify the source of increased spot-market efficiency. Results show that the cross-correlation between Bitcoin spot and futures returns is statistically significantly positive, and that the Bitcoin futures market and spot market has a two-way nonlinear Granger causality. Our results provide evidence that the price discovery in Bitcoin futures market help improve price efficiency of Bitcoin spot market efficiency.

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  • Ruan, Qingsong & Meng, Lu & Lv, Dayong, 2021. "Effect of introducing Bitcoin futures on the underlying Bitcoin market efficiency: A multifractal analysis," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 153(P1).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:153:y:2021:i:p1:s0960077921009309
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2021.111576
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    2. Shen, Na & Chen, Jiayi, 2023. "Asymmetric multifractal spectrum distribution based on detrending moving average cross-correlation analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 615(C).
    3. Yang, Zixiu & Fantazzini, Dean, 2022. "Using crypto assets pricing methods to build technical oscillators for short-term bitcoin trading," MPRA Paper 115508, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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