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Bank loans and the effects of monetary policy in China: VAR/VECM approach

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  • Sun, Lixin
  • Ford, J.L.
  • Dickinson, David G.

Abstract

In this paper, we test the differential effects of monetary policy shock on aspects of banks' balance sheets (deposits, loans, and securities) across bank categories (aggregate banks, state banks, and non-state banks) as well as on macroeconomic variables (output, consumer price index, exports, imports, and foreign exchange reserves). We do so by estimating VAR/VEC Models to uncover the transmission mechanisms of China's monetary policy. Also we identify the cointegrating vectors to establish the long-run relationship between these variables. By using monthly aggregate bank data and disaggregated data on bank and loan types from 1996 to 2006, our study suggests the existence of a bank lending channel, an interest rate channel and an asset price channel. Furthermore, we discuss and explore the distribution and growth effects of China's monetary policy on China's real economy. In addition, we investigate the effects of China's monetary policy on China's international trade. Finally, we identify the cointegrating vectors among these variables and set up VEC Models to uncover the long-run relationships that connect the indicators of monetary policy, bank balance sheet variables and the macroeconomic variables in China.

Suggested Citation

  • Sun, Lixin & Ford, J.L. & Dickinson, David G., 2010. "Bank loans and the effects of monetary policy in China: VAR/VECM approach," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 65-97, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:21:y:2010:i:1:p:65-97
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Sun, Lixin, 2016. "Corporate Deleveraging and Macroeconomic Policies: Evidence from China," MPRA Paper 69140, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Sun, Rongrong, 2013. "Does monetary policy matter in China? A narrative approach," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 56-74.
    3. Lixin Sun, 2024. "Time preference and economic growth: The case for China and international comparisons," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(2), pages 683-704, April.
    4. Fernald, John G. & Spiegel, Mark M. & Swanson, Eric T., 2014. "Monetary policy effectiveness in China: Evidence from a FAVAR model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PA), pages 83-103.
    5. Lu, Zhengfei & Zhu, Jigao & Zhang, Weining, 2012. "Bank discrimination, holding bank ownership, and economic consequences: Evidence from China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 341-354.
    6. Ching-Chun Wei & Tzu-Wei Chuang, 2015. "Empirical Testing of Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Transmission Channels in China," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 5(1), pages 145-154, January.
    7. Hung, Ying-Shu & Lee, Chingnun & Chen, Pei-Fen, 2022. "China’s monetary policy and global stock markets: A new cointegration approach with smoothing structural changes," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 643-666.
    8. Burdekin, Richard C.K. & Weidenmier, Marc D., 2015. "Assessing the impact of the Chinese stimulus package at home and abroad: A damp squib?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 137-162.
    9. He, Qing & Leung, Pak-Ho & Chong, Terence Tai-Leung, 2013. "Factor-augmented VAR analysis of the monetary policy in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 88-104.
    10. Jafar Haghighat & Tanaz Salahesh, 2016. "The role of money multiplier in monetary transmission mechanism in Iran (bank lending and money supply)," International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(2), pages 212-223.
    11. Wang, Hongjian & Luo, Tianpei & Tian, Gary Gang & Yan, Huanmin, 2020. "How does bank ownership affect firm investment? Evidence from China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    12. Deryugina, Elena B. & Ponomarenko, Alexey A., 2011. "Identifying structural shocks behind loan supply fluctuations in Russia," BOFIT Discussion Papers 20/2011, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    13. Deryugina, Elena B. & Ponomarenko, Alexey A., 2011. "Identifying structural shocks behind loan supply fluctuations in Russia," BOFIT Discussion Papers 20/2011, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    14. Stefan Angrick & Naoyuki Yoshino, 2020. "From Window Guidance to Interbank Rates: Tracing the Transition of Monetary Policy in Japan and China," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(3), pages 279-316, June.
    15. repec:zbw:bofitp:2011_020 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Pham Thi Ha An & Nguyen Thi Quynh Dung, 2019. "Transfer Money Policy through Credit Channels in Vietnam," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 9(6), pages 33-39.
    17. Li, Huan & Ni, Jinlan & Xu, Yueli & Zhan, Minghua, 2021. "Monetary policy and its transmission channels: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    18. Soyoung Kim & Hongyi Chen, 2022. "From a Quantity to an Interest Rate‐Based Framework: Multiple Monetary Policy Instruments and Their Effects in China," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(7), pages 2103-2123, October.
    19. Thai V. H. Nguyen & Agyenim Boateng & Tra Thi Thu Pham, 2019. "Involuntary excess reserve and heterogeneous transmission of policy rates to bank lending rates in China," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 1023-1044, September.
    20. repec:zbw:bofitp:2018_004 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Fatih OKUR & Ömer AKKUŞ & Atakan DURMAZ, 2019. "The effectiveness of the monetary transmission mechanism channel in Turkey," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 10, pages 161-180, June.
    22. Stefan Angrick & Naoyuki Yoshino, 2020. "From Window Guidance to Interbank Rates: Tracing the Transition of Monetary Policy in Japan and China," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(3), pages 279-316, June.
    23. Nguyen, Vu Hong Thai & Boateng, Agyenim, 2013. "The impact of excess reserves beyond precautionary levels on Bank Lending Channels in China," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 358-377.
    24. Sun, Lixin, 2019. "China’s Debt Revisited," MPRA Paper 98796, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    25. Yang Fan & Teng Jianzhou, 2011. "Studying on the monetary transmission mechanism in China in the presence of structural changes," China Finance Review International, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 1(4), pages 334-357, September.

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