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US pressure on China: Silver flows, deflation, and the 1934 Shanghai credit crunch

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  • Burdekin, Richard C.K.

Abstract

US pressure for Chinese currency appreciation in the face of a weakening dollar was initially resisted in the post-2003 period. No such option was available in the 1930s, however, when dollar weakness was accompanied by silver purchases that automatically drove up the value of China's old silver-based currency. New empirical evidence suggests a significant link between the policy-induced driving up of US silver prices and Chinese exchange rate appreciation and price deflation. Moreover, the reversal of the silver flow into Shanghai as large-scale US purchases began in 1934 appears to have been met by a credit crunch in that city--as evidenced by bank failures, and real estate and stock market declines. The silver flow from the interior to Shanghai had previously insulated the financial center from the credit shortages faced elsewhere in China after deflation first emerged in 1932-1933.

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  • Burdekin, Richard C.K., 2008. "US pressure on China: Silver flows, deflation, and the 1934 Shanghai credit crunch," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 170-182, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:19:y:2008:i:2:p:170-182
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Richard C.K. Burdekin & Kris James Mitchener & Marc D. Weidenmier, 2012. "Irving Fisher and Price-Level Targeting in Austria: Was Silver the Answer?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(4), pages 733-750, June.
    2. Ching Hsu & Tina Yu & Shu-Heng Chen, 2021. "Narrative economics using textual analysis of newspaper data: new insights into the U.S. Silver Purchase Act and Chinese price level in 1928–1936," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 761-785, November.
    3. Niv Horesh, 2012. "Between Copper, Silver and Gold: Japanese Banks of Issue in Taiwan, Northeast China and Korea, 1879–1937," China Report, , vol. 48(4), pages 375-392, November.
    4. Zhu, Haikun, 2018. "Essays on political economy of finance and fintech," Other publications TiSEM 93f94423-e671-4041-bb24-8, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    5. Ho, Tai-kuang & Lai, Cheng-chung, 2013. "Silver fetters? The rise and fall of the Chinese price level 1928–34," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 446-462.

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