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The double dividend of agricultural trade liberalization: Consistency between national food security and gains from trade

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  • Hosoe, Nobuhiro

Abstract

National food security is one of the main justifications for opposition to agricultural trade liberalization in Japan. Opponents of liberalization argue that because food crop production is subject to high variability, over-reliance on imports would be risky. To assess the risks to Japan with and without trade liberalization, we conducted Monte Carlo simulations of productivity shocks within a computable general equilibrium model for the four crops of greatest significance in the Japanese diet – rice, wheat, maize, and oilseed. Our results indicate that productivity shocks for rice and maize have a substantial effect on welfare. Liberalizing trade for these crops would both raise expected welfare and reduce welfare fluctuations. This double dividend was forecast even when we limited the simulation to cases of extremely poor crop yields in Japan's major source countries.

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  • Hosoe, Nobuhiro, 2016. "The double dividend of agricultural trade liberalization: Consistency between national food security and gains from trade," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 27-36.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:43:y:2016:i:c:p:27-36
    DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2016.02.001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685, December.
    2. Rutten, Martine & Shutes, Lindsay & Meijerink, Gerdien, 2013. "Sit down at the ball game: How trade barriers make the world less food secure," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 1-10.
    3. Tanaka, Tetsuji & Hosoe, Nobuhiro, 2011. "Does agricultural trade liberalization increase risks of supply-side uncertainty?: Effects of productivity shocks and export restrictions on welfare and food supply in Japan," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 368-377, June.
    4. Nobuhiro Hosoe & Kenji Gasawa & Hideo Hashimoto, 2010. "Textbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modelling," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-0-230-28165-3.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hosoe, Nobuhiro & Akune, Yuko, 2020. "Can the Japanese agri-food producers survive under freer trade? A general equilibrium analysis with farm heterogeneity and product differentiation," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    2. Balié, Jean & Valera, Harold Glenn, 2020. "Domestic and international impacts of the rice trade policy reform in the Philippines," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    3. Yoji Kunimitsu & Gen Sakurai & Toshichika Iizumi, 2020. "Systemic Risk in Global Agricultural Markets and Trade Liberalization under Climate Change: Synchronized Crop-Yield Change and Agricultural Price Volatility," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-17, December.
    4. Nobuhiro Hosoe & Yuko Akune, 2019. "Can the Japanese Agri-food Sectors Survive by Promoting their Exports?:A General Equilibrium Analysis with Farm Heterogeneity and Product Differentiation," GRIPS Discussion Papers 19-06, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
    5. Valeria Borsellino & Emanuele Schimmenti & Hamid El Bilali, 2020. "Agri-Food Markets towards Sustainable Patterns," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-35, March.
    6. Hosoe, Nobuhiro & Akune, Yuko, 2019. "Impact of Trade Liberalization on the Japanese Agri-food Sectors: A General Equilibrium Analysis with Farm Heterogeneity and Product Differentiation," Conference papers 333025, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    National food security; Agricultural trade liberalization; Productivity shocks; Computable general equilibrium analysis; Monte Carlo simulation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models

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