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Does agricultural trade liberalization increase risks of supply-side uncertainty?: Effects of productivity shocks and export restrictions on welfare and food supply in Japan

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Author Info

  • Tanaka, Tetsuji
  • Hosoe, Nobuhiro

Abstract

Agriculture is the focus of much contention in free trade negotiations. The Japanese government is against liberalizing the rice trade on the grounds that it would threaten "national food security" in the events of such shocks as crop failure and embargoes. Trade liberalization is expected to make the Japanese economy more dependent upon food imports and, thus, more susceptible to these risks. Using a computable general equilibrium model with a Monte Carlo simulation, we quantify the welfare impacts of productivity shocks and export quotas by major rice exporters to Japan and found little evidence of Japan suffering from such shocks.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Food Policy.

Volume (Year): 36 (2011)
Issue (Month): 3 (June)
Pages: 368-377

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jfpoli:v:36:y:2011:i:3:p:368-377

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/foodpol

Related research

Keywords: Agricultural trade protection Food security Productivity shocks Food self-sufficiency rate Emergency stocks;

References

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  1. Gail L. Cramer & James M. Hansen & Eric J. Wailes, 1999. "Impact of Rice Tariffication on Japan and the World Rice Market," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1149-1156.
  2. Nobuhiro Hosoe, 2004. "Crop failure, price regulation, and emergency imports of Japan's rice sector in 1993," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(10), pages 1051-1056.
  3. Devaragan, Shantayanan & Lewis, Jeffrey D. & Robinson, Sherman, 1990. "Policy lessons from trade-focused, two-sector models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 625-657.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Nobuhiro Hosoe, 2013. "The Double Dividend of Agricultural Trade Liberalization: Consistency between National Food Security and Gains from Trade," GRIPS Discussion Papers 13-02, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
  2. Mariano, Marc Jim M. & Giesecke, James A., 2014. "The macroeconomic and food security implications of price interventions in the Philippine rice market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 350-361.
  3. Tetsuji Tanaka & Nobuhiro Hosoe, 2011. "What Drove the Crop Price Hikes in the Food Crisis?," GRIPS Discussion Papers 11-16, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
  4. Rutten, Martine & Meijerink, Gerdien W. & Chant, Lindsay, 2011. "Sit down at the ballgame: How trade barriers make the world less food secure," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114653, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  5. John, Adam, 2013. "Price relations between export and domestic rice markets in Thailand," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 48-57.
  6. Karapinar, Baris & Tanaka, Tetsuji, 2013. "How to Improve World Food Supply Stability Under Future Uncertainty: Potential Role of WTO Regulation on Export Restrictions in Rice," 135th Seminar, August 28-30, 2013, Belgrade, Serbia 160387, European Association of Agricultural Economists.

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