IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v88y2011i5p1848-1856.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Estimation of wind energy potential using different probability density functions

Author

Listed:
  • Chang, Tian Pau

Abstract

In addition to the probability density function (pdf) derived with maximum entropy principle (MEP), several kinds of mixture probability functions have already been applied to estimate wind energy potential in scientific literature, such as the bimodal Weibull function (WW) and truncated Normal Weibull function (NW). In this paper, two other mixture functions are proposed for the first time to wind energy field, i.e. the mixture Gamma-Weibull function (GW) and mixture truncated normal function (NN). These five functions will be reviewed and compared together with conventional Weibull function. Wind speed data measured from 2006 to 2008 at three wind farms experiencing different climatic environments in Taiwan are selected as sample data to test their performance. Judgment criteria include four kinds of statistical errors, i.e. the max error in Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, root mean square error, Chi-square error and relative error of wind potential energy. The results show that all the mixture functions and the maximum entropy function describe wind characterizations better than the conventional Weibull function if wind regime presents two humps on it, irrespective of wind speed and power density. For wind speed distributions, the proposed GW pdf describes best according to the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test followed by the NW and WW pdfs, while the NN pdf performs worst. As for wind power density, the MEP and GW pdfs perform best followed by the WW and NW pdfs. The GW pdf could be a useful alternative to the conventional Weibull function in estimating wind energy potential.

Suggested Citation

  • Chang, Tian Pau, 2011. "Estimation of wind energy potential using different probability density functions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(5), pages 1848-1856, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:88:y:2011:i:5:p:1848-1856
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306-2619(10)00473-3
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jowder, Fawzi A.L., 2009. "Wind power analysis and site matching of wind turbine generators in Kingdom of Bahrain," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(4), pages 538-545, April.
    2. Li, Meishen & Li, Xianguo, 2005. "MEP-type distribution function: a better alternative to Weibull function for wind speed distributions," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 1221-1240.
    3. Jamil, M. & Parsa, S. & Majidi, M., 1995. "Wind power statistics and an evaluation of wind energy density," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 6(5), pages 623-628.
    4. Fyrippis, Ioannis & Axaopoulos, Petros J. & Panayiotou, Gregoris, 2010. "Wind energy potential assessment in Naxos Island, Greece," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 577-586, February.
    5. Ucar, Aynur & Balo, Figen, 2009. "Investigation of wind characteristics and assessment of wind-generation potentiality in Uludag-Bursa, Turkey," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(3), pages 333-339, March.
    6. Carta, J.A. & Ramírez, P., 2007. "Analysis of two-component mixture Weibull statistics for estimation of wind speed distributions," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 518-531.
    7. Zhou, Wei & Yang, Hongxing & Fang, Zhaohong, 2006. "Wind power potential and characteristic analysis of the Pearl River Delta region, China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 739-753.
    8. Raichle, Brian W. & Carson, W. Richard, 2009. "Wind resource assessment of the Southern Appalachian Ridges in the Southeastern United States," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 1104-1110, June.
    9. Ucar, Aynur & Balo, Figen, 2009. "Evaluation of wind energy potential and electricity generation at six locations in Turkey," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(10), pages 1864-1872, October.
    10. Kwon, Soon-Duck, 2010. "Uncertainty analysis of wind energy potential assessment," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 856-865, March.
    11. Jaramillo, O.A. & Borja, M.A., 2004. "Wind speed analysis in La Ventosa, Mexico: a bimodal probability distribution case," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 1613-1630.
    12. Chang, Tsang-Jung & Wu, Yu-Ting & Hsu, Hua-Yi & Chu, Chia-Ren & Liao, Chun-Min, 2003. "Assessment of wind characteristics and wind turbine characteristics in Taiwan," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 851-871.
    13. Chang, Tian Pau, 2011. "Performance comparison of six numerical methods in estimating Weibull parameters for wind energy application," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 272-282, January.
    14. Carta, J.A. & Ramírez, P. & Velázquez, S., 2009. "A review of wind speed probability distributions used in wind energy analysis: Case studies in the Canary Islands," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 933-955, June.
    15. Sulaiman, M.Yusof & Akaak, Ahmed Mohammed & Wahab, Mahdi Abd & Zakaria, Azmi & Sulaiman, Z.Abidin & Suradi, Jamil, 2002. "Wind characteristics of Oman," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 35-46.
    16. Bekele, Getachew & Palm, Björn, 2009. "Wind energy potential assessment at four typical locations in Ethiopia," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(3), pages 388-396, March.
    17. Akdag, S.A. & Bagiorgas, H.S. & Mihalakakou, G., 2010. "Use of two-component Weibull mixtures in the analysis of wind speed in the Eastern Mediterranean," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(8), pages 2566-2573, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Liu, Feng-Jiao & Chen, Pai-Hsun & Kuo, Shyi-Shiun & Su, De-Chuan & Chang, Tian-Pau & Yu, Yu-Hua & Lin, Tsung-Chi, 2011. "Wind characterization analysis incorporating genetic algorithm: A case study in Taiwan Strait," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 2611-2619.
    2. Liu, Feng Jiao & Chang, Tian Pau, 2011. "Validity analysis of maximum entropy distribution based on different moment constraints for wind energy assessment," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 1820-1826.
    3. Chang, Tian-Pau & Ko, Hong-Hsi & Liu, Feng-Jiao & Chen, Pai-Hsun & Chang, Ying-Pin & Liang, Ying-Hsin & Jang, Horng-Yuan & Lin, Tsung-Chi & Chen, Yi-Hwa, 2012. "Fractal dimension of wind speed time series," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 742-749.
    4. Chang, Tian-Pau & Liu, Feng-Jiao & Ko, Hong-Hsi & Cheng, Shih-Ping & Sun, Li-Chung & Kuo, Shye-Chorng, 2014. "Comparative analysis on power curve models of wind turbine generator in estimating capacity factor," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 88-95.
    5. Gugliani, Gaurav Kumar & Sarkar, Arnab & Ley, Christophe & Matsagar, Vasant, 2021. "Identification of optimum wind turbine parameters for varying wind climates using a novel month-based turbine performance index," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 902-914.
    6. Chang, Tian Pau, 2011. "Performance comparison of six numerical methods in estimating Weibull parameters for wind energy application," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 272-282, January.
    7. El Alimi, Souheil & Maatallah, Taher & Dahmouni, Anouar Wajdi & Ben Nasrallah, Sassi, 2012. "Modeling and investigation of the wind resource in the gulf of Tunis, Tunisia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(8), pages 5466-5478.
    8. Khahro, Shahnawaz Farhan & Tabbassum, Kavita & Mahmood Soomro, Amir & Liao, Xiaozhong & Alvi, Muhammad Bux & Dong, Lei & Manzoor, M. Farhan, 2014. "Techno-economical evaluation of wind energy potential and analysis of power generation from wind at Gharo, Sindh Pakistan," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 460-474.
    9. Jin, Jingliang & Zhou, Dequn & Zhou, Peng & Miao, Zhuang, 2014. "Environmental/economic power dispatch with wind power," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 234-242.
    10. Sergei Kolesnik & Yossi Rabinovitz & Michael Byalsky & Asher Yahalom & Alon Kuperman, 2023. "Assessment of Wind Speed Statistics in Samaria Region and Potential Energy Production," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(9), pages 1-35, May.
    11. Shoaib, Muhammad & Siddiqui, Imran & Amir, Yousaf Muhammad & Rehman, Saif Ur, 2017. "Evaluation of wind power potential in Baburband (Pakistan) using Weibull distribution function," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 1343-1351.
    12. Shin, Ju-Young & Ouarda, Taha B.M.J. & Lee, Taesam, 2016. "Heterogeneous mixture distributions for modeling wind speed, application to the UAE," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 40-52.
    13. Islam, M.R. & Saidur, R. & Rahim, N.A., 2011. "Assessment of wind energy potentiality at Kudat and Labuan, Malaysia using Weibull distribution function," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 985-992.
    14. Carta, J.A. & Ramírez, P. & Velázquez, S., 2009. "A review of wind speed probability distributions used in wind energy analysis: Case studies in the Canary Islands," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 933-955, June.
    15. Mazhar Hussain Baloch & Dahaman Ishak & Sohaib Tahir Chaudary & Baqir Ali & Ali Asghar Memon & Touqeer Ahmed Jumani, 2019. "Wind Power Integration: An Experimental Investigation for Powering Local Communities," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-24, February.
    16. Dong, Yao & Wang, Jianzhou & Jiang, He & Shi, Xiaomeng, 2013. "Intelligent optimized wind resource assessment and wind turbines selection in Huitengxile of Inner Mongolia, China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 239-253.
    17. Jung, Sungmoon & Arda Vanli, O. & Kwon, Soon-Duck, 2013. "Wind energy potential assessment considering the uncertainties due to limited data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 1492-1503.
    18. Zhao, Xuejing & Wang, Chen & Su, Jinxia & Wang, Jianzhou, 2019. "Research and application based on the swarm intelligence algorithm and artificial intelligence for wind farm decision system," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 681-697.
    19. Arslan, Talha & Bulut, Y. Murat & Altın Yavuz, Arzu, 2014. "Comparative study of numerical methods for determining Weibull parameters for wind energy potential," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 820-825.
    20. Emilio Gómez-Lázaro & María C. Bueso & Mathieu Kessler & Sergio Martín-Martínez & Jie Zhang & Bri-Mathias Hodge & Angel Molina-García, 2016. "Probability Density Function Characterization for Aggregated Large-Scale Wind Power Based on Weibull Mixtures," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-15, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:88:y:2011:i:5:p:1848-1856. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.