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Forecasting peak system load using a combined time series and econometric model

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  • Uri, Noel D.
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    Abstract

    Estimates of peak demand requirements in the future constitute the foundation for planning in the electrical energy industry. Because of the critical nature of accurate forecasts, forecasting methodology is continually being refined. In this paper a further refinement is made by using a combined Box-Jenkins/econometric approach to forecast monthly peak system load for a specific utility. By taking account of changes in economic and weather related variables in a Box-Jenkins time series model, improved forecasts are obtained.

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V1T-497SS8P-5H/2/1093a0eaac4a45b78ecd74e911e2b408
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Applied Energy.

    Volume (Year): 4 (1978)
    Issue (Month): 3 (July)
    Pages: 219-227

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:4:y:1978:i:3:p:219-227

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description

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    Cited by:
    1. Neto, João C. do L. & da Costa Junior, Carlos T. & Bitar, Sandro D.B. & Junior, Walter B., 2011. "Forecasting of energy and diesel consumption and the cost of energy production in isolated electrical systems in the Amazon using a fuzzification process in time series models," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 4947-4955, September.
    2. Jebaraj, S. & Iniyan, S., 2006. "A review of energy models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 281-311, August.

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