Risk-based distributionally robust optimal dispatch for multiple cascading failures in regional integrated energy system using surrogate modeling

Regional integrated energy system (RIES) with the close coupling of multiple energies faces various cascading failure risks in its operation, and formulating the risk-based optimal dispatch scheme is important to ensure the secure and economic operation of the RIES. Considering that the occurrence probability of each subsequent failure path caused by the initial failure in the cascading failure chain varies with the change of dispatch scheme, the cooling/heating and gas pipeline dynamics and the uncertainty of renewable energy, a risk-based distributionally robust optimal dispatch model for multiple cascading failures in a RIES is proposed. A kernel ambiguity set is constructed by using the maximum mean discrepancy between the real and reference probability distributions and the kernel mean embedding technology, which can obtain the more accurate worst-case probability distribution. Moreover, a surrogate modeling method based on piecewise convex quadratic functions is proposed to learn the mapping between the cascading failure risks and the decision variables, and the original large-scale mixed integer nonlinear programming model is transformed into a small-scale mixed integer quadratic constrained programming model for efficient solution. Finally, case study on an actual RIES demonstrates the effectiveness and advantages of the proposed method. Compared to optimal dispatch without considering the cascading failure risks, the proposed method can reduce the total failure risk cost by nearly 60%.