IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/agiwat/v233y2020ics0378377419318062.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Transitions from irrigated to dryland agriculture in the Ogallala Aquifer: Land use suitability and regional economic impacts

Author

Listed:
  • Deines, Jillian M.
  • Schipanski, Meagan E.
  • Golden, Bill
  • Zipper, Samuel C.
  • Nozari, Soheil
  • Rottler, Caitlin
  • Guerrero, Bridget
  • Sharda, Vaishali

Abstract

Many agricultural communities depend on groundwater irrigation as a supplemental or primary water source. However, groundwater resources are finite, and depletion can make continued irrigation inviable. When modeling the economic impacts of future aquifer decline, studies often assume that irrigated cropland will transition uniformly to dryland crop production. In reality, irrigation has allowed crops to be grown across a wider range of soil and climate conditions than can support dryland crop production. Here, we test the agronomic and economic importance of this assumption by mapping the spatiotemporal distribution of anticipated future irrigation losses across the Ogallala or High Plains Aquifer (USA) at annual, 30 m resolution. We then develop a land use suitability model to determine whether these lands would transition to dryland agriculture or pasture use. We find that 22,000 km2 (24 %) of currently irrigated lands in the High Plains Aquifer may be unable to support irrigated agriculture by 2100, and 13 % of these areas are not suitable for dryland crop production due primarily to low quality soils. To quantify the farm-scale and regional-scale economic importance of land use suitability, we selected six case study counties across the aquifer and modeled farm and community-scale economic outcomes (gross revenue and value added, respectively) with and without consideration of land use suitability. We find that not accounting for land use suitability leads to an overestimate of economic benefits in transitioned land by 12–45 %, with variability across counties primarily driven by the distribution of soil capability, dryland crop mix, and local economic factors. Notably, this implies that the economic impacts of land transitions are not directly proportional to area lost but rather mediated by underlying variability in these three factors. Our analyses highlight the importance of considering local biophysical constraints in planning for future land use trajectories. Community and regional land use planning needs to incorporate the possibility that irrigated cropland may transition to non-irrigated pasture production rather than dryland crop production, which can have substantial biophysical and economic impacts.

Suggested Citation

  • Deines, Jillian M. & Schipanski, Meagan E. & Golden, Bill & Zipper, Samuel C. & Nozari, Soheil & Rottler, Caitlin & Guerrero, Bridget & Sharda, Vaishali, 2020. "Transitions from irrigated to dryland agriculture in the Ogallala Aquifer: Land use suitability and regional economic impacts," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:233:y:2020:i:c:s0378377419318062
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2020.106061
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378377419318062
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.agwat.2020.106061?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wheeler, Erin & Golden, Bill & Johnson, Jeffrey & Peterson, Jeffrey, 2008. "Economic Efficiency of Short-Term Versus Long-Term Water Rights Buyouts," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(2), pages 493-501, August.
    2. Dale T. Manning & Christopher Goemans & Alexander Maas, 2017. "Producer Responses to Surface Water Availability and Implications for Climate Change Adaptation," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 93(4), pages 631-653.
    3. Haacker, Erin M.K. & Cotterman, Kayla A. & Smidt, Samuel J. & Kendall, Anthony D. & Hyndman, David W., 2019. "Effects of management areas, drought, and commodity prices on groundwater decline patterns across the High Plains Aquifer," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 218(C), pages 259-273.
    4. Kayla A. Cotterman & Anthony D. Kendall & Bruno Basso & David W. Hyndman, 2018. "Groundwater depletion and climate change: future prospects of crop production in the Central High Plains Aquifer," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 146(1), pages 187-200, January.
    5. James J. Butler & Donald O. Whittemore & B. Brownie Wilson & Geoffrey C. Bohling, 2018. "Sustainability of aquifers supporting irrigated agriculture: a case study of the High Plains aquifer in Kansas," Water International, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(6), pages 815-828, August.
    6. Carole Dalin & Yoshihide Wada & Thomas Kastner & Michael J. Puma, 2017. "Groundwater depletion embedded in international food trade," Nature, Nature, vol. 543(7647), pages 700-704, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hualou Long & Yingnan Zhang & Li Ma & Shuangshuang Tu, 2021. "Land Use Transitions: Progress, Challenges and Prospects," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-20, August.
    2. Irmak, S. & Sandhu, R. & Kukal, M.S., 2022. "Multi-model projections of trade-offs between irrigated and rainfed maize yields under changing climate and future emission scenarios," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    3. Kelly, T.D. & Foster, T. & Schultz, David M., 2023. "Assessing the value of adapting irrigation strategies within the season," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    4. Li Ma & Yingnan Zhang & Muye Gan & Zhengying Shan, 2023. "Rethinking Man–Land Relations in China: A Multidisciplinary Perspective," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-7, August.
    5. Movahedi, Reza & Jawanmardi, Sina & Azadi, Hossein & Goli, Imaneh & Viira, Ants-Hannes & Witlox, Frank, 2021. "Why do farmers abandon agricultural lands? The case of Western Iran," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    6. Bawa, Arun & Senay, Gabriel B. & Kumar, Sandeep, 2022. "Satellite remote sensing of crop water use across the Missouri River Basin for 1986–2018 period," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 271(C).
    7. Xinxin Fu & Xiaofeng Wang & Jitao Zhou & Jiahao Ma, 2021. "Optimizing the Production-Living-Ecological Space for Reducing the Ecosystem Services Deficit," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-17, September.
    8. Jafar Nabati & Ahmad Nezami & Ehsan Neamatollahi & Morteza Akbari, 2023. "An integrated approach land suitability for agroecological zoning based on fuzzy inference system and GIS," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 2316-2338, March.
    9. Jaime Martínez-Valderrama & Jorge Olcina & Gonzalo Delacámara & Emilio Guirado & Fernando T. Maestre, 2023. "Complex Policy Mixes are Needed to Cope with Agricultural Water Demands Under Climate Change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(6), pages 2805-2834, May.
    10. Filippelli, Steven K. & Sloggy, Matthew R. & Vogeler, Jody C. & Manning, Dale T. & Goemans, Christopher & Senay, Gabriel B., 2022. "Remote sensing of field-scale irrigation withdrawals in the central Ogallala aquifer region," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 271(C).
    11. Qi Cao & Junqing Tang & Yudie Huang & Manjiang Shi & Anton van Rompaey & Fengjue Huang, 2023. "Modeling Production-Living-Ecological Space for Chengdu, China: An Analytical Framework Based on Machine Learning with Automatic Parameterization of Environmental Elements," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(5), pages 1-24, February.
    12. Kukal, M.S. & Irmak, S., 2020. "Impact of irrigation on interannual variability in United States agricultural productivity," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    13. Yuanyuan Yang & Wenkai Bao & Yuheng Li & Yongsheng Wang & Zongfeng Chen, 2020. "Land Use Transition and Its Eco-Environmental Effects in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Urban Agglomeration: A Production–Living–Ecological Perspective," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-24, August.
    14. Mitter, Hermine & Schmid, Erwin, 2021. "Informing groundwater policies in semi-arid agricultural production regions under stochastic climate scenario impacts," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    15. Jaime Martínez-Valderrama & Rolando Gartzia & Jorge Olcina & Emilio Guirado & Javier Ibáñez & Fernando T. Maestre, 2024. "Uberizing Agriculture in Drylands: A Few Enriched, Everyone Endangered," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 38(1), pages 193-214, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Reyes, Julian & Elias, Emile & Haacker, Erin & Kremen, Amy & Parker, Lauren & Rottler, Caitlin, 2020. "Assessing agricultural risk management using historic crop insurance loss data over the ogallala aquifer," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    2. Ehsan Qasemipour & Farhad Tarahomi & Markus Pahlow & Seyed Saeed Malek Sadati & Ali Abbasi, 2020. "Assessment of Virtual Water Flows in Iran Using a Multi-Regional Input-Output Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-18, September.
    3. Ji, Xinde & Cobourn, Kelly M. & Weng, Weizhe, 2018. "The Effect of Climate Change on Irrigated Agriculture: Water-Temperature Interactions and Adaptation in the Western U.S," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274306, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Peter Horton, 2017. "We need radical change in how we produce and consume food," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 9(6), pages 1323-1327, December.
    5. Caldera, Upeksha & Breyer, Christian, 2020. "Strengthening the global water supply through a decarbonised global desalination sector and improved irrigation systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    6. Sohyun Park & Darla K Munroe & Ningchuan Xiao, 2023. "Visualizing economic drivers of virtual land trade: A case study of global cereals trade," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 50(6), pages 1695-1698, July.
    7. Golam Saleh Ahmed Salem & So Kazama & Shamsuddin Shahid & Nepal C. Dey, 2018. "Groundwater-dependent irrigation costs and benefits for adaptation to global change," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 23(6), pages 953-979, August.
    8. Jayanta Das & A. T. M. Sakiur Rahman & Tapash Mandal & Piu Saha, 2021. "Exploring driving forces of large-scale unsustainable groundwater development for irrigation in lower Ganga River basin in India," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(5), pages 7289-7309, May.
    9. Wallander, Steven & Hrozencik, Aaron & Aillery, Marcel, 2022. "Irrigation Organizations: Drought Planning and Response," Economic Brief 327233, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    10. Rulli, Maria Cristina & Casirati, Stefano & Dell’Angelo, Jampel & Davis, Kyle Frankel & Passera, Corrado & D’Odorico, Paolo, 2019. "Interdependencies and telecoupling of oil palm expansion at the expense of Indonesian rainforest," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 499-512.
    11. Xiukang Wang, 2022. "Managing Land Carrying Capacity: Key to Achieving Sustainable Production Systems for Food Security," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-21, March.
    12. Nouri, Milad & Homaee, Mehdi & Pereira, Luis S. & Bybordi, Mohammad, 2023. "Water management dilemma in the agricultural sector of Iran: A review focusing on water governance," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    13. Anna Herzberger & Min Gon Chung & Kelly Kapsar & Kenneth A. Frank & Jianguo Liu, 2019. "Telecoupled Food Trade Affects Pericoupled Trade and Intracoupled Production," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-15, May.
    14. Distefano, Tiziano & Chiarotti, Guido & Laio, Francesco & Ridolfi, Luca, 2019. "Spatial Distribution of the International Food Prices: Unexpected Heterogeneity and Randomness," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 122-132.
    15. Shelly Bogra & Bhavik R. Bakshi, 2020. "Direct and indirect vulnerability of economic sectors to water scarcity: A hotspot analysis of the Indian economy," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 24(6), pages 1323-1337, December.
    16. Foster, T. & Brozović, N., 2018. "Simulating Crop-Water Production Functions Using Crop Growth Models to Support Water Policy Assessments," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 9-21.
    17. Roudbari, Maziyar Vaez & Dehnavi, Ali & Jamshidi, Shervin & Yazdani, Mohamadreza, 2023. "A multi-pollutant pilot study to evaluate the grey water footprint of irrigated paddy rice," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).
    18. Boyer, Christopher N. & Adams, Damian C. & Borisova, Tatiana, 2014. "Drivers of Price and Nonprice Water Conservation by Urban and Rural Water Utilities: An Application of Predictive Models to Four Southern States," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(1), pages 41-56, February.
    19. Biswa Das & David Willis & Ken Rainwater, 2013. "An interdisciplinary regional groundwater model: A study of the Ogallala in the Texas High Plains," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(1), pages 113-133, March.
    20. Jordan Labbe & Hélène Celle & Jean-Luc Devidal & Julie Albaric & Gilles Mailhot, 2023. "Combined Impacts of Climate Change and Water Withdrawals on the Water Balance at the Watershed Scale—The Case of the Allier Alluvial Hydrosystem (France)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-23, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:233:y:2020:i:c:s0378377419318062. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/agwat .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.