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Deployment of artificial neural network for short-term forecasting of evapotranspiration using public weather forecast restricted messages

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  • Traore, Seydou
  • Luo, Yufeng
  • Fipps, Guy

Abstract

Near-future irrigation demand forecasting is important information for anticipating decisions on crop irrigation scheduling and planning water allocation in large irrigation command areas of Texas. The key determinant that is required for estimating irrigation demand in advance is toward the evapotranspiration forecast. Normally, in rich data environment, current reference evapotranspiration (ETo) is estimated by the well-known FAO56 PM method which requires bunch of observed climatic data. In poor data environment for either current or future estimation, this well-known method application is restricted. Indeed, the correctness of ETo forecast remains a challenging computational task, since inaccurate weather variables can alter the forecast accuracy. Therefore, this study aims to employ artificial neural network (ANN) methodology for forecasting near future ETo values by using restricted climate information messages retrieved from public weather forecast source. Four ANNs learning algorithms including the Generalized Feedforward (GFF), Linear Regression (LR), Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and Probabilistic Neural Network (PNN) are applied with three sets of inputs combination composed of minimum (Tmin) and maximum (Tmax) daily air temperatures, extraterrestrial radiation (Ra) and net solar radiation (Rs) to forecast ETo in Dallas. The coefficient of correlation (CC), mean square error (MSE), normalized mean square error (NMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean square error skill score (MSESS) were used for the models evaluation. Statistically, in comparison with FAO56 PM, the performances of ANNs models using only Tmax and Tmin predictors were inferior to those of Tmax, Tmin and Ra. With Tmax, Tmin and Rs input-sets, MLP yielded the highest accuracies (CC=0.926; MSE=0.770mm/day, NMSE=0.143mm/day; MAE=0.708mm/day). Tmax is an important ETo forecast predictor, and the performance improvement relies mostly on Rs accuracy. With precise weather forecast information, ANN made ETo forecast possible (Average CC=0.860, MSESS=0.738). These results can assist irrigation districts to accommodate in advance their crop water demand to near-future irrigation requirement.

Suggested Citation

  • Traore, Seydou & Luo, Yufeng & Fipps, Guy, 2016. "Deployment of artificial neural network for short-term forecasting of evapotranspiration using public weather forecast restricted messages," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 363-379.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:163:y:2016:i:c:p:363-379
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2015.10.009
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    2. Seydou Traore & Yufeng Luo & Guy Fipps, 2017. "Gene-Expression Programming for Short-Term Forecasting of Daily Reference Evapotranspiration Using Public Weather Forecast Information," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(15), pages 4891-4908, December.
    3. Feiyu Zhang & Yuqi Dong & Kequan Zhang, 2016. "A Novel Combined Model Based on an Artificial Intelligence Algorithm—A Case Study on Wind Speed Forecasting in Penglai, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(6), pages 1-20, June.
    4. Bellido-Jiménez, Juan Antonio & Estévez Gualda, Javier & García-Marín, Amanda Penélope, 2021. "Assessing new intra-daily temperature-based machine learning models to outperform solar radiation predictions in different conditions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    5. Shiri, Jalal, 2017. "Evaluation of FAO56-PM, empirical, semi-empirical and gene expression programming approaches for estimating daily reference evapotranspiration in hyper-arid regions of Iran," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 101-114.
    6. Rizwan Abbas & Gehad Abdullah Amran & Irshad Hussain & Shengjun Ma, 2022. "A Soft Computing View for the Scientific Categorization of Vegetable Supply Chain Issues," Logistics, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-17, June.
    7. Behrooz Keshtegar & Ozgur Kisi & Hamed Ghohani Arab & Mohammad Zounemat-Kermani, 2018. "Subset Modeling Basis ANFIS for Prediction of the Reference Evapotranspiration," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(3), pages 1101-1116, February.
    8. Chen, Mengting & Cui, Yuanlai & Wang, Xiaonan & Xie, Hengwang & Liu, Fangping & Luo, Tongyuan & Zheng, Shizong & Luo, Yufeng, 2021. "A reinforcement learning approach to irrigation decision-making for rice using weather forecasts," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 250(C).
    9. Kim, Ho-Jun & Chandrasekara, Sewwandhi & Kwon, Hyun-Han & Lima, Carlos & Kim, Tae-woong, 2023. "A novel multi-scale parameter estimation approach to the Hargreaves-Samani equation for estimation of Penman-Monteith reference evapotranspiration," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    10. Fan, Junliang & Ma, Xin & Wu, Lifeng & Zhang, Fucang & Yu, Xiang & Zeng, Wenzhi, 2019. "Light Gradient Boosting Machine: An efficient soft computing model for estimating daily reference evapotranspiration with local and external meteorological data," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    11. Zhang, Lei & Zhao, Xin & Zhu, Ge & He, Jun & Chen, Jian & Chen, Zhicheng & Traore, Seydou & Liu, Junguo & Singh, Vijay P., 2023. "Short-term daily reference evapotranspiration forecasting using temperature-based deep learning models in different climate zones in China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 289(C).
    12. Zhang, Lei & Traore, Seydou & Cui, Yuanlai & Luo, Yufeng & Zhu, Ge & Liu, Bo & Fipps, Guy & Karthikeyan, R. & Singh, Vijay, 2019. "Assessment of spatiotemporal variability of reference evapotranspiration and controlling climate factors over decades in China using geospatial techniques," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 213(C), pages 499-511.

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