IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/agisys/v194y2021ics0308521x21002316.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Performance of a wheat yield prediction model and factors influencing the performance: A review and meta-analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Hao, Shirui
  • Ryu, Dongryeol
  • Western, Andrew
  • Perry, Eileen
  • Bogena, Heye
  • Franssen, Harrie Jan Hendricks

Abstract

Process-based crop models provide ways to predict crop growth, evaluate environmental impacts on crops, test various crop management options, and guide crop breeding. They can be used to explore options for mitigating climate change impacts when combined with climate projections and explore mitigation of environmental impacts of production. The Agricultural Production Systems SIMulator (APSIM) is a widely adopted crop model that offers modules for simulation of various crops, soil processes, climate, and grazing within a modelling system that enables robust addition of new components.

Suggested Citation

  • Hao, Shirui & Ryu, Dongryeol & Western, Andrew & Perry, Eileen & Bogena, Heye & Franssen, Harrie Jan Hendricks, 2021. "Performance of a wheat yield prediction model and factors influencing the performance: A review and meta-analysis," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:194:y:2021:i:c:s0308521x21002316
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2021.103278
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308521X21002316
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.agsy.2021.103278?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. van Oort, P.A.J. & Wang, G. & Vos, J. & Meinke, H. & Li, B.G. & Huang, J.K. & van der Werf, W., 2016. "Towards groundwater neutral cropping systems in the Alluvial Fans of the North China Plain," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 131-140.
    2. David B. Lobell & Adam Sibley & J. Ivan Ortiz-Monasterio, 2012. "Extreme heat effects on wheat senescence in India," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(3), pages 186-189, March.
    3. S. Asseng & F. Ewert & C. Rosenzweig & J. W. Jones & J. L. Hatfield & A. C. Ruane & K. J. Boote & P. J. Thorburn & R. P. Rötter & D. Cammarano & N. Brisson & B. Basso & P. Martre & P. K. Aggarwal & C., 2013. "Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(9), pages 827-832, September.
    4. Bai, Huiqing & Wang, Jing & Fang, Quanxiao & Huang, Binxiang, 2020. "Does a trade-off between yield and efficiency reduce water and nitrogen inputs of winter wheat in the North China Plain?," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    5. Yan, Zongzheng & Zhang, Xiying & Rashid, Muhammad Adil & Li, Hongjun & Jing, Haichun & Hochman, Zvi, 2020. "Assessment of the sustainability of different cropping systems under three irrigation strategies in the North China Plain under climate change," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    6. Phelan, David C. & Harrison, Matthew T. & McLean, Greg & Cox, Howard & Pembleton, Kieth G. & Dean, Geoff J. & Parsons, David & do Amaral Richter, Maria E. & Pengilley, Georgie & Hinton, Sue J. & Moham, 2018. "Advancing a farmer decision support tool for agronomic decisions on rainfed and irrigated wheat cropping in Tasmania," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 113-124.
    7. A. Araya & P. V. V. Prasad & P. H. Gowda & M. Djanaguiraman & A. H. Kassa, 2020. "Potential impacts of climate change factors and agronomic adaptation strategies on wheat yields in central highlands of Ethiopia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 159(3), pages 461-479, April.
    8. Bing Liu & Senthold Asseng & Christoph Müller & Frank Ewert & Joshua Elliott & David B. Lobell & Pierre Martre & Alex C. Ruane & Daniel Wallach & James W. Jones & Cynthia Rosenzweig & Pramod K. Aggarw, 2016. "Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(12), pages 1130-1136, December.
    9. Andrew L. Fletcher & Chao Chen & Noboru Ota & Roger A. Lawes & Yvette M. Oliver, 2020. "Has historic climate change affected the spatial distribution of water-limited wheat yield across Western Australia?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 159(3), pages 347-364, April.
    10. Hansen, James W. & Mishra, Ashok & Rao, K.P.C. & Indeje, Matayo & Ngugi, Robinson Kinuthia, 2009. "Potential value of GCM-based seasonal rainfall forecasts for maize management in semi-arid Kenya," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 101(1-2), pages 80-90, June.
    11. McCown, R.L. & Hammer, G.L. & Hargreaves, J.N.G. & Holzworth, D. & Huth, N.I., 1995. "APSIM: an agricultural production system simulation model for operational research," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 225-231.
    12. Bosi, Cristiam & Sentelhas, Paulo Cesar & Huth, Neil Ian & Pezzopane, José Ricardo Macedo & Andreucci, Mariana Pares & Santos, Patricia Menezes, 2020. "APSIM-Tropical Pasture: A model for simulating perennial tropical grass growth and its parameterisation for palisade grass (Brachiaria brizantha)," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    13. Ludwig, Fulco & Asseng, Senthold, 2006. "Climate change impacts on wheat production in a Mediterranean environment in Western Australia," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 90(1-3), pages 159-179, October.
    14. Li, Jianzheng & Wang, Enli & Wang, Yingchun & Xing, Hongtao & Wang, Daolong & Wang, Ligang & Gao, Chunyu, 2016. "Reducing greenhouse gas emissions from a wheat–maize rotation system while still maintaining productivity," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 90-98.
    15. Zeleke, K.T. & Nendel, C., 2016. "Analysis of options for increasing wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) yield in south-eastern Australia: The role of irrigation, cultivar choice and time of sowing," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 139-148.
    16. S. Asseng & F. Ewert & P. Martre & R. P. Rötter & D. B. Lobell & D. Cammarano & B. A. Kimball & M. J. Ottman & G. W. Wall & J. W. White & M. P. Reynolds & P. D. Alderman & P. V. V. Prasad & P. K. Agga, 2015. "Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(2), pages 143-147, February.
    17. Chen, Chao & Wang, Enli & Yu, Qiang, 2010. "Modelling the effects of climate variability and water management on crop water productivity and water balance in the North China Plain," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 97(8), pages 1175-1184, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chapagain, Ranju & Huth, Neil & Remenyi, Tomas A. & Mohammed, Caroline L. & Ojeda, Jonathan J., 2023. "Assessing the effect of using different APSIM model configurations on model outputs," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 483(C).
    2. Peterson, C.A. & Pittelkow, C.M. & Lundy, M.E., 2023. "Targeted irrigation expands scope for winter cereal production in water-limited areas of California's San Joaquin Valley," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tianyi Zhang & Yong He & Ron DePauw & Zhenong Jin & David Garvin & Xu Yue & Weston Anderson & Tao Li & Xin Dong & Tao Zhang & Xiaoguang Yang, 2022. "Climate change may outpace current wheat breeding yield improvements in North America," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    2. Haidong Zhao & Lina Zhang & M. B. Kirkham & Stephen M. Welch & John W. Nielsen-Gammon & Guihua Bai & Jiebo Luo & Daniel A. Andresen & Charles W. Rice & Nenghan Wan & Romulo P. Lollato & Dianfeng Zheng, 2022. "U.S. winter wheat yield loss attributed to compound hot-dry-windy events," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    3. Ramírez-Rodrigues, Melissa A. & Alderman, Phillip D. & Stefanova, Lydia & Cossani, C. Mariano & Flores, Dagoberto & Asseng, Senthold, 2016. "The value of seasonal forecasts for irrigated, supplementary irrigated, and rainfed wheat cropping systems in northwest Mexico," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 76-86.
    4. Anwar, Muhuddin Rajin & Liu, De Li & Farquharson, Robert & Macadam, Ian & Abadi, Amir & Finlayson, John & Wang, Bin & Ramilan, Thiagarajah, 2015. "Climate change impacts on phenology and yields of five broadacre crops at four climatologically distinct locations in Australia," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 133-144.
    5. Luo, Jianmei & Shen, Yanjun & Qi, Yongqing & Zhang, Yucui & Xiao, Dengpan, 2018. "Evaluating water conservation effects due to cropping system optimization on the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei plain, China," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 32-41.
    6. Yanxi Zhao & Dengpan Xiao & Huizi Bai & Jianzhao Tang & De Li Liu & Yongqing Qi & Yanjun Shen, 2022. "The Prediction of Wheat Yield in the North China Plain by Coupling Crop Model with Machine Learning Algorithms," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-19, December.
    7. Tan, Lili & Feng, Puyu & Li, Baoguo & Huang, Feng & Liu, De Li & Ren, Pinpin & Liu, Haipeng & Srinivasan, Raghavan & Chen, Yong, 2022. "Climate change impacts on crop water productivity and net groundwater use under a double-cropping system with intensive irrigation in the Haihe River Basin, China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).
    8. Markhof,Yannick Valentin & Ponzini,Giulia & Wollburg,Philip Randolph, 2022. "Measuring Disaster Crop Production Losses Using Survey Microdata : Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9968, The World Bank.
    9. Sun, Hongyong & Zhang, Xiying & Liu, Xiujing & Liu, Xiuwei & Shao, Liwei & Chen, Suying & Wang, Jintao & Dong, Xinliang, 2019. "Impact of different cropping systems and irrigation schedules on evapotranspiration, grain yield and groundwater level in the North China Plain," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 202-209.
    10. Zhong, Honglin & Sun, Laixiang & Fischer, Günther & Tian, Zhan & Liang, Zhuoran, 2019. "Optimizing regional cropping systems with a dynamic adaptation strategy for water sustainable agriculture in the Hebei Plain," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 94-106.
    11. Zimmermann, Andrea & Webber, Heidi & Zhao, Gang & Ewert, Frank & Kros, Johannes & Wolf, Joost & Britz, Wolfgang & de Vries, Wim, 2017. "Climate change impacts on crop yields, land use and environment in response to crop sowing dates and thermal time requirements," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 81-92.
    12. Qiao, Shengchao & Harrison, Sandy P. & Prentice, I. Colin & Wang, Han, 2023. "Optimality-based modelling of wheat sowing dates globally," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    13. Zeng, Ruiyun & Lin, Xiaomao & Welch, Stephen M. & Yang, Shanshan & Huang, Na & Sassenrath, Gretchen F. & Yao, Fengmei, 2023. "Impact of water deficit and irrigation management on winter wheat yield in China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 287(C).
    14. Wang, Bo & van Dam, Jos & Yang, Xiaolin & Ritsema, Coen & Du, Taisheng & Kang, Shaozhong, 2023. "Reducing water productivity gap by optimizing irrigation regime for winter wheat-summer maize system in the North China Plain," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 280(C).
    15. Bao, Yawen & Hoogenboom, Gerrit & McClendon, Ron & Vellidis, George, 2017. "A comparison of the performance of the CSM-CERES-Maize and EPIC models using maize variety trial data," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 109-119.
    16. Amanda R. Bourne & John Bruce & Meredith M. Guthrie & Li-Ann Koh & Kaylene Parker & Stanley Mastrantonis & Igor Veljanoski, 2023. "Identifying areas of high drought risk in southwest Western Australia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 118(2), pages 1361-1385, September.
    17. Yun, Kyungdahm & Hsiao, Jennifer & Jung, Myung-Pyo & Choi, In-Tae & Glenn, D. Michael & Shim, Kyo-Moon & Kim, Soo-Hyung, 2017. "Can a multi-model ensemble improve phenology predictions for climate change studies?," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 362(C), pages 54-64.
    18. Chapagain, Ranju & Huth, Neil & Remenyi, Tomas A. & Mohammed, Caroline L. & Ojeda, Jonathan J., 2023. "Assessing the effect of using different APSIM model configurations on model outputs," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 483(C).
    19. Jiang, Yiwen & Zhang, Lanhui & Zhang, Baoqing & He, Chansheng & Jin, Xin & Bai, Xiao, 2016. "Modeling irrigation management for water conservation by DSSAT-maize model in arid northwestern China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 37-45.
    20. Li, Na & Yao, Ning & Li, Yi & Chen, Junqing & Liu, Deli & Biswas, Asim & Li, Linchao & Wang, Tianxue & Chen, Xinguo, 2021. "A meta-analysis of the possible impact of climate change on global cotton yield based on crop simulation approaches," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:194:y:2021:i:c:s0308521x21002316. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/agsy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.