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Public debt sustainability in the northern countries of Latin America

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  • Paunovic, Igor

Abstract

An analysis of public debt indicators in eight northern countries of Latin America reveals that Nicaragua and Honduras are the most vulnerable; Panama, the Dominican Republic, Costa Rica, and El Salvador are moderately vulnerable; while Mexico and Guatemala have debt levels that are not considered dangerous. Nonetheless, a subsequent review of four indicators of fiscal sustainability shows only Mexico to be well positioned under all criteria; Costa Rica and Guatemala display a number of minor problems, while various special circumstances explain the favourable results obtained by Nicaragua and the Dominican Republic; and El Salvador, Honduras and Panama will be unable to sustain their 2004 fiscal policy for very long. Lastly, analysis of the sensitivity of the debt to a sudden stop in foreign capital inflows suggests the need for a cautious attitude towards the future trend of the public debt in the face of rising international interest rates.

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  • Paunovic, Igor, 2005. "Public debt sustainability in the northern countries of Latin America," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecr:col070:11116
    Note: Includes bibliography
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ehrhart Christophe & Matthieu Llorca, 2017. "Fiscal Sustainability in Central and Latin America Countries: Evidence from a Panel Cointegration Approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(4), pages 2292-2300.
    2. Torres, Miguel & Hofman, André A., 2008. "ECLAC thinking in the CEPAL Review (1976-2008)," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), December.

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